Fourth and Dumb

It’s kind of a quiet week in the SEC, with only a couple games really worth wondering about, as most teams get directional schools at home.

Auburn’s hosting a directional, as a matter of fact, though theirs is one we’ve heard of: West Virginia (there’s a “west” Virginia now?). WVU is not the same as last year without Pat White, but don’t tell that to the rabid WarTigers, whom I’m sure will want this one pretty badly. If Chizik’s team wins this, they’ll be 4-0 (after beating Ball State next week) heading into an interesting but manageable stretch of roadies at Tennessee and Arkansas and then home vs. Kentucky. Thus it’s not impossible that they could be 6-1 or 7-0 and ranked when they head to Death Valley in late October. I think Auburn wins and covers and the guy who screamed at the Auburn AD when he got off the plane after hiring Chizik feels kind of stupid (for a while, anyway).

The best game in the conference this weekend is the very intriguing match-up of Georgia at Arkansas. This is the game where we’ll learn whether Ryan Mallet, 7 feet tall with arms like tree trunks, and a shock of hair, red like the fires of hell, is really up to the hype coming out of Fayetteville. Georgia’s D didn’t look like much last week when Garcia went 31-53 on them. It will be interesting to see if they can get pressure on Mallet with just the front four, especially considering they lost DE Rod Battle last week for the season. But here comes Justin Houston from suspension to step in. If they have to blitz a lot like they did against the ‘Cocks, Mallett may tear them up. Still, I was impressed by the steady performance of Joe Cox last week, and I think the Dawgs will find a way to win this game.

We all know the Gators are going to exact a cruel vengeance on the Vols for the folly of their coach, but I’m especially looking forward to seeing the kickoff returns by Nu’Keese Richardson (I’d also say punts, but I don’t reckon the Gators will be doing much of that), who dissed the Gators by letting Kiffin convince him not to announce his de-commitment from UF until signing day and then saw his coach accuse Pope Urban of cheating for calling Nuke while he was visiting Knoxville (without Urban’s knowledge, of course). You probably know that the Gators put starters on those kick-off and punt teams, and I’m sure looking forward to seeing Major Wright or Jelani Jenkins get an open-field introduction to Mr. Richardson. I don’t think I’ll be able to indulge in my usual tradition of taking a shot of Patron for each Gator TD, as I assume my heart would fail sometime in the third quarter. Maybe I’ll switch to Tab.

Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

Hey folks, it’s Rivalry Week!

Chris and Fred tied again, and Borglum is now trying to work his way out of the basement.

I dropped the ball a little this week too, but I can assure you that all picks were in prior to the Pitt-WVU kickoff I totally overlooked today.

And now…

COMMEN-TARY *clap clap clapclapclap*

Iron Bowl: Auburn (+14.5) at #1 Alabama, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: Bama’s front four won’t allow Auburn to run consistently, and we’ve all seen that Kodi Burns can’t win a big game with his arm. Bama snaps its string of Iron Bowl losses, and we all hope that no one gets shot afterward.

Hardee’s Trophy: South Carolina (+1) at Clemson, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Stephen Garcia will solidify his hold on the QB job for the bowl game, and Jasper Brinkley and SC’s nasty defense will stop the great two-headed running back of Clemson.
DanGr: After the midseason crash that saw Tommy Bowden bite the dust, the Tigers are quietly on a three-game winning streak. This one is for an invitation to a bowl game and to rip the interim tag off of Dabo Swinney’s title. For that, C.J. “100%” Spiller and Clemson will play their best game of the year and sock it to the Cocks.

Bedlam Series: #3 Oklahoma (-7) at #12 Oklahoma State, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGo: Oklahoma’s throttling of Texas Tech in Norman was a shock to many who had written off the Sooners. The trip to Stillwater won’t be anything close to hospitable, but the Cowboys have been the odd man out in the game of musical chairs that is the Big 12 South. It will be exciting, but the Sooners will persevere.
DanGr: Oklahoma has had a clunker in the regular season (plus championship game) every year since the championship season. Oklahoma State has been forgotten and wants to make a statement. The Cowboys will pull the upset and send Texas Tech to KC for some barbequed Tiger.

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: #22 Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #11 Georgia, Saturday 12:00pm CBS
DanGo: After falling far behind the Gators in the SEC East, the Dawgs have silently played their way to a 9-2 record, losing only to the two better teams in the SEC: Florida and Bama. Georgia Tech is going to have to rely on Virginia to hand them their ACC Coastal title, but GT’s losses to VT, UVa and UNC raise some questions about how effective the “vaunted” triple-option really is. The Dawgs pull it out in the 2nd half.
DanGr: This is not the year Uga fans had hoped for, but they at least they can wash down the disappointment with another win over the Yellow Jackets. Not so fast, my friend. Paul Johnson makes another statement with his totally awesome triple option with flexbone filling as his team snaps their seven game losing streak to the Bulldogs.
[This really was DanGr, and not Lee Corso, writing this. - Ed.]

Commonwealth Cup: Virginia (+8) at Virginia Tech, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This one’s pretty simple. The Hokies need to win to go to Tampa next weekend. The Wahoos need to win to become bowl-eligible, and possibly for Al Groh to keep his job. We’re not sure what color Al Groh’s chair is, but I hear Phil Fulmer is looking for employment… Regardless, The Hokies’ defense will have no trouble with a team that could only put up 3 points against Clemson, and the Hokies can book their tickets to Tampa.

Civil War: #23 Oregon (+3) at #17 Oregon State, Saturday 7:00pm Versus
Chris: ESPN is saying that Jacquizzzzz Rogers won’t play, and his brother isn’t as fast. Ducks will break out some hideous new throbbing, electric-neon-yellow unis and find a way to win.
DanGr: The Beavers feel like a team of destiny, one that is destined to win its local Civil War. They are playing well in all phases of the game. Their defense will be the difference against the Sun Bowl-bound Ducks.

Backyard Brawl: #25 Pittsburgh (+3) at West Virginia, Friday 12:00pm No TV
DanGo: West Virginia can’t really drop two straight to The Mustache, can they?

What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.

Okay, so I’ve run a quizbowl tournament and survived, and I apologize to our legions of fans for letting you down by not giving you a recap last week. So let’s get to it.

Our conference slate got started last Thursday when Auburn played like Auburn for about a half before the roof caved in. But West Virginia’s speed and actual ability to run the spread offense spelled doom for the WarTigerEagles. Rumblings from the Plains make me think that boosters there are probably willing to give Tubby one more season after this one to get back to the top of the West, but that’s only barring a complete collapse this year. And they better start by beating Ole Miss in Oxford Saturday. Knocking off an undefeated Tide team for their seventh straight win in the Iron Bowl will protect him no matter what, but that’s looking like a bigger long shot than McCain in Pennsylvania.

Phat Phil’s season didn’t get any better Saturday, with the Tide beating his protuberant buttocks like Jack Costanzo on the bongos (Hey, he’s the first guy who comes up on Google for famous bongo drummers). So, update: Tide good, Vols bad. This Saturday the Tide gets another win vs. Arky State, and the Vols get their sixth loss against the Fighting ‘Cocks.

Arkansas had its chances to try to justify its firing of Houston Nutt by beating the Rebels, but they failed, as of course Arkansas must. Amazingly to me, the Razorbacks are actually favored by 8 (!) against Tulsa, but take those points and the Golden Hurricane; hell, take them to win! They played poorly against UCF, and the slow Arkansas defense will have a hard time with their weird sets. Ole Miss hosts Auburn, as mentioned above, and right now I’d take Ole Miss–Auburn’s got hard times.

Vanderbilt, as my colleague Dan Greenstein pointed out, seems to have fallen apart lately. Right now they appear to be in big trouble for that elusive sixth win I so smartly have been guaranteeing for them for a couple weeks. Their next four? Florida at home, Kentucky on the road, Tennessee at home, Wake Forest on the road. Oh, my. The easiest pickings will be the Vols, and that’s a rivalry game against a team that will be beaten, bruised, and snot covered, aching for some sense of dignity. How awful to start 5-0 and then go 0-7. Not farfetched right now, I’m afraid.

And the big game I forgot? Miss State upheld conference pride against MTSU! Oh, and Florida absolutely buried Kentucky and Georgia’s offense crushed LSU. Boy, are those two teams setting up for the third Battle of Megiddo this weekend or what? Florida’s players are offering angry-sounding “No comments” to every question about the infamous Georgia stomp of last year, and Georgia is showing that it can run despite a seriously depleted offensive line. For SEC fans this is clearly the game of the regular season (though seeing the winner play Bama will be even bigger, as it will either be a rematch of the Georgia debacle or a chance to see another Florida-Bama championship game). For pure speed and athletic talent, there might not be a better game this year. Look for Tebow to go over the top a few times in the first half to Louis Murphy, who’s been pretty quiet thus far. And look for Georgia to try to push Knowshon Moreno through the tackles as often as possible and to take shots at the left side of the Gator defensive backfield whether freshman Janoris Jenkins is able to play or not.

Most important, look for a feisty Gator team to win and for some ugly fights in the stands if Meyer goes for a late score in a game that’s out of hand.

PS–Why is Miss State favored over Kentucky in Starkville? Is it because of how badly UF beat them down? The ‘Cats should find a way to win that game with the freshman QB Randall Cobb.

This is gonna be an exciting weekend of football to watch.

Posting picks quickly prior to the Auburn – WVU kickoff. Commentary to follow.

Fred and I split last week, each going 5-2. Fred made a great pick with Texas Christian; the Horned Frogs devoured a previously-undefeated BYU team.

#3 Penn State (-1.0) at #9 Ohio State, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Joe Pa’s teams have a hard time winning in the Horseshoe, and this time will be no different.
DanGr: The Buckeyes looked great last game, but it helps to play against a subpar defense. The Penn State defense, while not as stout as that of OSU, is a parsec better than Michigan
State’s defense.

#7 Georgia (+1.5) at #13 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
DanGo: I’m going with a hunch on this one. Georgia’s a slight underdog on the road, in one of the most intimidating place to play in the country. The Tigers D gets in some shots on Moreno, and wins a close one.
DanGr: Georgia has the better offensive stars, but LSU has a significant advantage on the lines. The Bulldogs keep their dreamsalive by winning a close one.

#8 Texas Tech (Pick ‘Em) at #23 Kansas, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This is the Red Raiders’ warmup prior to next week’s game with Texas that will probably determine who wins the Big 12 South. Kansas is good, but their defense won’t be able to slow down the Red Raiders, whose biggest question lies with their kicking game.

Auburn (+5.0) at West Virginia, Thurdsay 7:30pm ESPN
DanGr: West Virginia over Auburn. The executives at ESPN are crying in their beer about a late non-conference game they thought would involve two Top 15 teams. This will not be ugly as Auburn’s baseball match with Mississippi State, but it will be a snoozefest. West Virginia wins based on the home field advantage and the Tigers still being in disarray.

Virginia Tech (+6.0) at #25 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
DanGo: As much as I hate to pick against the Hokies, I was incredibly unimpressed by the passing game of the Hokies last week; their lack of a willingness to throw the ball to the team’s young receivers meant that Tyrod Taylor had to do it all, and the BC defense was able to keep him in check for at least part of the day. Ponder’s developing well and should lead the ‘Noles to a close victory.

#6 Oklahoma State (+10.5) at #1 Texas, Saturday 3:30 ABC
DanGr: Who is Zac Robinson? That is the question America will be asking after he tears it up against the Longhorns. But it will be for naught as Texas remains undefeated behind a monster day from Colt McCoy in a shootout.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Connecticut, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN Plus
DanGr: This Huskies team has fallen apart after an excellent start to the season. Both teams have injury issues. Cincy’s are less devastating, and they will win.

Going into the second half, the score is WVU 14, Marshall 3.

Both of these teams have been disappointing. This game has so far been decided by screw ups rather than good plays. Hopefully this is different in the second half.

Marshall opens with possession, passes – and their receiver fumbles. More sloppy play here.

WVU follows this up with a huge run from Noel Devine. The pulling away begins now.

Touchdown WVU. 21-3

Big kick return for Marshall for 75 yards.

Marshall gets the ball deep in WVU territory, and on a pass play a WVU d-line member breaks through and basically pulls the ball out of the QB’s hands. Yet another Thundering Herd turnover.

WVU is driving. Jarrett Brown drops back to pass – and intercepted by Marshall!

All these turnovers are making this game way ugly.

Marshall gets nowhere with their next drive, which shortly leads to a punt. WVU will take over inside their own 30.

Pat White got banged up a bit, but looks like he’s okay on the sideline. Jarrett Brown takes over.

Noel Devine makes yet another great line, shaking four tacklers before finally being brought down.

OWEN SCHMITT SIGHTING!!!

WVU is driving again and inside Marshall territory, but Jock Sanders just got lit up by a Marshall defender. The followup pass is short of the first down, so it looks like WVU will go for the field goal and the kick is good. WVU 24, Marshall 3.

Updates will come more sparingly from here – the way this game is going, Marshall has no shot making this interesting again, let alone a successful comeback.

Marshall called a timeout right before they converted a fourth and one. More like fourth and dumb amirite.

I’m declaring this oberly painful game done. See you later, folks.

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH WEST BAH GAWD VIRGINIA MARSHALL FRIENDS OF COAL BOWL YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

Marshall is walking to the field holding onto a tug of war rope as a group. This is bizarre.

And WVU starts with a pass for a first down. Tremendous.

Noel Devine runs in for a TD at the 10:11 mark. PAT is good. WVU 7, Marshall 0.

Marshall’s ability to stop WVU already is concerning. WVU is a supierior team, athletically, but I did believe that Coach Stewart’s disappointing performance to date would make a difference.

The first Marshall play is… a delay of game. Way to go Marshall!

The first Marshall ends on a three and out. It looks like this is approaching the annual Marshall – but WVU fumbles the punt and Marshall recovers near inside the ten! Play is under review to determine if Marshall had possession.

The call stands – Marshall recovery.

Marshall holding penalty pushes them back to the 17 and negates a touchdown. That’ll sting.

Marshall blows an easy shot at a TD thanks to two overthrownpasses, but they at least get the field goal. 7-3, WFVU.

WVU’s driving again – and they fumble on first down! A terrible toss on a reverse, but WVU recovers.

Pat White is looking crisp out there, but they fail to get a second first down on this drive and are forced to punt. It looked like the punt may have hit a Marshall player’s foot, which would have allowed WVU to recover, but it’s ruled that did not happen. Still Marshall possession.

Marshall tries to drive down the field, but on a third and six the pass to the wide out pops out of his hands and almost into the hands of a WVU defender. This leads to a punt. WVU has a fair catch at the five yard line(?!).

WVU takes possession, and it’s the end of the first quarter with the score WVU 7, Marshall 3.

WVU is committing a few too many penalties here – two on this drive have held them back, and if this doesn’t change they’ll have problems maintaing momentum. And this poessession ends in a punt – a very, very long punt.

Marshall is slowly moving down the field – they’ve gained about 20 yards in six plays so far on this drive. Just enough to keep moving. WVU just handed a first down to Marshall via an offsides, too.

WVU’s weaknesses in the defensive line and secondary are letting Marshall stay close so far, and Mountaineer penalties are a big problem too.

Marshall is, after this timeout, going to run their fifteenth play of this drive.

Once again, WVU fails to pick up the necessary first down and go for the field goal – and they botch the snap! They fall on it, meaning a turnover on downs. Fifteen plays, zero points. Pathetic.

Prediction for the rest of this game: WVU will pick it up in the second half, score multiple points, win by three touchdowns.

Pat White just completed a beautiful pass off a pump fake for a touchdown. PAT is good. WFVU 14, Marshall 3.

Marshall gets the ball and – interception by WVU. WVU is in scoring position wiht a minute left; the only hope for Marshall is that Bill Stewart has not figured out clock management yet.

Noel Devine just pulled off an insane run, where he covered the field from one sideline to the other and picked up 20 yards while runnning about 40 total. That’s a YouTube highlight that needs to be seen to be believed.

Bill Stewart clock management! WVU has the ball inside of the 20 with less than 10 seconds remaining – and they call a pass play what Pat White scrambles forever before throwing a deflected pass . No points, so at the half it’s WVU 14, Marshall 3.

After the half, watch for a new post.

With Thursday’s night road loss to Colorado, West Virginia University falls to a 1-2 record. This essentially relegates the Mountaineers to hoping for a Gator Bowl berth, or the ability to upset South Florida for a BCS spot. Needless to say, this is a far cry from starting the season ranked in nearly everyone’s top ten and with a legitimate shot at earning a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.

Two major factors have caused the fall of WBGVU (West Bah Gawd Virginia University) – their shortcomings on defense and apparent coaching issues. The defensive problems aren’t a surprise – after all, they lost most of their defensive line and secondary, and losing that much talent and experience at once is never easy to overcome. The truly surprising part to many is how quickly the luster has fallen from Bill Stewart.

Stewart was famously hired after coaching the WVU team that beat Oklahoma in last year’s Fiesta Bowl after Rich Rodriguez’s jump to the Michigan Wolverines. The day after the bowl win, Stewart was named the head coach for WVU.

This was obviously an emotional decision, as the Oklahoma win was a fairly big upset and helped shore up confidence in the WVU program. Unfortunately, emotional decisions are often the least sound. By going with Stewart and avoiding an actual search for a head coach, WVU tossed their hat with a man whose entire head coaching experience consisted of three seasons at VMI with a 8-25 record and a dismissal from that job due to referring to an African-American player with a slur.

Stewart is now 2-2. After winning against Villanova, back to back losses against East Carolina and Colorado drop him back to .500. An odd reliance on a passing attack against ECU when you possess Pat White and Noel Devine, in addition to bizarre clock management against Colorado, certainly helped these losses occur. Really, time management is ideally one of the easiest things to do in football. You want the ball in your hands as much as possible and in your opponent’s possession as little as possible. This still seems to be a difficult concept to grasp for many coaches, though, notably in the NFL by Herm Edwards. Orson Welles of EDSBS probably best phrased it today:

The moment in that game where we realized Bill Stewart could not manage a team came not at the end of the second half–which was really just piling on evidence of an already strong verdict–but at the end of the first half. Bill Stewart took both timeouts with great effort and and insistence in order to make CU punt from their 5 yard line or so. On 4th down with three seconds, Dan Hawkins and Colorado opted to foil the whole thing by looking at the clock, seeing it had 3 seconds, doing some very complex math and then calling a run play…which ran out the clock and took the team harmlessly to the half.

It was a bit like watching the scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark where the swordsman flails impressively for an instant in the bazaar showdown before Indy grabs his gun and shoots him dead.

Stewart has looked like a buffoon on the sideline the last two games. He looks cheerfully lost, almost like the winner of a “Coach for a Game” promotion gone horribly wrong. He is ultimately an obstruction on the path to success. Like Raja Bell and Austin Croshere in the NBA, Stewart exhibited success for a short period of time and was rewarded handsomely for this. This leaves him as an albatross around the collective neck of couch burning fans, a weight dragging the team’s performance to the bottom of what they could hope for.

Is Stewart a bad coach? It might be too early to say for sure, but if I were a WVU booster, I would have no problem throwing my money behind a search for a new coach to begin immediately.

With Week 1 in the books, it’s time to move on to week 2.

Chris and Fred split the first week’s results, having the foresight to pick Michigan losing in the Big House, and each going 5-2 for the week.

Here’s the rundown for week 2:

Miami (FL) (+20.5) at #5 Florida, Sat 8pm ESPN
Chris: The Gators’ offense should crack 40 on the Canes; can Marve lead his team to more than 17? No.
DanGr: This would have been a sweet game four years ago, but Miami is no longer Miami.

Georgia Tech (+7) at Boston College, Sat 12pm Raycom Sports
DanGr: the Ramblin’ Wreck heads to Chestnut Hill to test the totally awesome triple option against a real defense. Let it be known here that Coach Jags of the Eagles will adjust pretty well to it with his talent on hand and will hold off GA Tech at home.

Air Force (+3) at Wyoming, Sat 3:30pm CBS College
DanGr: Air Force is one of those schools that runs the totally awesome triple option, so this should be fun to watch, if you can find this game on television. Wyoming should have a better defense than Southern Utah, and the game is at home, so that should help the cause. Still, I am taking the Falcons to run away from the Cowboys.

Minnesota (+6) at Bowling Green, Sat 7:30pm ESPNU
Fred: The “Team most likely to undeservedly get top 25 votes based off a win over terrible Minnesota” Award goes to… Bowling Green!

Mississippi (+8) at #20 Wake Forest, Sat 3:30pm
DanGo: The ACC continues to be overrated, and Houston Nutt pulls out the upset on the road in a soggy Winston-Salem.

#8 West Virginia (-8) at East Carolina, Sat 4:30pm ESPN
DanGo: East Carolina was undervalued by a lot of teams prior to their meeting with a decimated Virginia Tech team. A win is still a win, but Pat White is not Sean Glennon.

Akron (+4.5) at Syracuse, Sat 3:30pm Time Warner-NY
Fred: I am going to make pictures of Greg Robinson looking very sad at opposing teams while using large font overlays on said pictures to make lots of money off the website www.icanhastouchdown.com .