1. Whether the ACC races will narrow or become even more muddled. Virginia Tech was set to virtually eliminate Miami from the ACC Coastal division race, but something happened on the way to Dolphin Stadium: Miami turned out to be the better team and handed Virginia Tech their third loss. The result of that game now opens the race up once again. The immediate beneficiary of the Hurricane victory? North Carolina.
Thanks to their earlier win over the Hurricanes, the Tar Heels now control their own destiny. They finish with the two sixth-place teams, North Carolina State and Duke, so five conference victories is a given. The last major obstacle is this weekend’s tilt at Maryland. A win effectively puts the division title in their grasp; a loss hands Miami control of their destiny. It is a game of hot potato, in the conference no one wants to win, and Georgia Tech, while virtually eliminated, wants to challenge the trajectory of the potato when they host Miami in another Thursday night showcase.
The Atlantic division is almost as muddled. Nothing has changed in terms of the standings, but Boston College can start their late charge by knocking off Florida State in Tallahassee. A loss ensures the Eagles will be spoilers at best. By comparison, Maryland’s game against North Carolina has no implications beyond the win total. Wake Forest will be pulling for North Carolina to knock off the Terps while they attempt to put down North Carolina State. With win and a Maryland loss, the Demon Deacons would be able to clinch the division title next week against Boston College.
2. Whether powers across the nation can avoid a letdown in this light week. Aside from South Carolina-Florida, there are no games between ranked teams this week. That means those high flying teams that are playing will be trying to avoid being grounded by a thirsty underdog. Lets take a look and play oddsmaker with some games that could send shock waves throughout conference races and even the national championship race:
Mississippi State at Alabama. The Maroon Bulldogs are having an ugly season, but there is always the possibility of them rising up and Crooming a high-flying opponent. None so much as Alabama, which has lost the last two games in the 90 Mile Drive series. That being said, Miss. State is the worst team in the SEC West and the Crimson Tide players will have the fear of Nick Saban’s wrath should their season be bludgeoned by Croom’s crew. Chances of an upset: 1%
USC at Stanford. The Trojans are crushing and killing their way through the schedule, while Stanford is just trying to become bowl eligible for the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era. The first really big win of the Jim Harbough era was last year’s win in the Coliseum, which was the largest point spread upset ever. He would love to pull off another surprise, but there is no way Pete Carroll’s side overlooks the Cardinal this year. They will want revenge for last year. They also have the fear that if they come up empty, their BCS streak is over. Chances of an upset: 12%
Georgia at Auburn. The War Tiger Eagles need to defeat one of their hated rivals in order to go bowling this year. That will be a tall order against this very good Bulldog team. Auburn has been very mediocre this season. Their offense has been offensive by SEC standards. Their defense has played valiantly, but it takes 2 1/2 units to be formidable. So this is an easy Georgia win, right? You just never know in a rivalry game. Chances of an upset: 20%
Ohio State at Illinois. This game is about stealing back the turtle. Not Testudo, but Illibuck. The Fighting Illini came into Columbus and earned their signature win of 2007, a 28-21 Juicing of the Buckeyes. Illinois has had a forgettable season, but that can chance in a hurry with a win over The Ohio State University. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are trying to stay in contention for a BCS at-large bid. They want to avoid a shaky moment that will cause their postseason aspirations to slip to the Capital One Bowl. Chances of an upset: 40%
3. Whether powers across the nation can avoid a letdown in this light week…Big 12 Edition. This week is quite a bore with everyone looking forward to the ginormous showdown between Texas Tech and Oklahoma that will either decide the South’s participant in the Big 12 Championship Game, or throw the division race into a potential circle of death. So we will play oddsmaker once again with some games that could be upset specials.
Texas at Kansas. Early in the year, this looked like a game to circle on the calendar, but Kansas turned out to be quite pedestrian this year. They can change that perception in a hurry by upsetting the Longhorns, who have their target on a national title or, at the least, a BCS bid. Can the Jayhawks dial up some of last year’s magic? Can Todd Reesing have the game of his career? Can the defense play like it is 2007? Chances of an upset: 15%
Missouri at Iowa State. This is the closest thing Iowa State has to an in-conference rivalry. The two teams fight for the Telephone Trophy, an old rotary phone on a stick used to commemorate some incompetence by a telephone company. Missouri can clinch the Big 12 North title with a win (and a Kansas loss), while the Cyclones can get their first significant win of the thus-far-forgetful Gene Chizik era. The Tigers have been crushing and killing through the Big 12 North and should do the same with impotent I-State, but you never know in a rivalry game. Chances of an upset: 4%
Oklahoma State at Colorado. The Cowboys are now playing for the second tier bowls, those celebrating Holidays and Cotton. To ensure they make it to San Diego or Dallas, they need to take care of business in Boulder in their last road game of the season. Colorado is just trying to become bowl eligible in a season that has seen high hopes get crushed by poor play. A win in their final home game of the season avoids having to take their show on the road to Lincoln to try to wrest a win from Mad Bo Pelini. Chances of an upset: 30%
4. Whether Navy can put to rest talk of needing another 43 years to defeat Notre Dame again. It took Notre Dame’s worst season in…forever to provide the golden opportunity the Midshipmen needed to finally end the longest series losing streak in NCAA history. It took three overtimes, but Navy got the job done in South Bend. The Irish now take their show to Baltimore to try to return to normalcy. The Irish are much better this year. Since everyone is expecting Notre Dame to resume dominance, a win does nothing except earn them bowl eligibility. Paul Johnson has moved on, but it is unclear at this time how this year’s Navy team compares to last year’s. A second consecutive win over the Irish removes any doubt that 2008 Navy is da bomb, and that this series can be competitive again.
5. Whether Utah will remain the frontrunner to become America’s Next Top Mid-Major. After last week’s thrilling 13-10 win over TCU to squash the Horned Frogs’ BCS hopes and boost their own, the Utes get a respite in the form of a trip to lovely Southern California to face a lousy San Diego State team whose head coach will probably not keep that title for Long. Could it be a letdown game? Of course! Will they get caught in the sandwich between TCU and BYU? No. Utah has had its way with bad teams all season and this one will be no different.
The team in the on deck circle also has a beatdown in its future. Boise State travels up US 95 to face their in-state rival Idaho in the totally awesome Kibbie Dome. In case you cannot read the irony, it will be the Broncos administering the beatdown, unless Idaho has a lights out game, which is just as likely as Jessica Simpson’s bison to grow wings.
In the mid-week special, Ball State achieved a 10-0 record for the first time in school history after a closer-than-expected game against Miami University. Bo Derek would be proud; David Letterman certainly is. The Cardinals lettermen now face the two toughest games of the season in the next two mid-week specials: two-thirds of Directional Michigan! Full coverage coming in the next “What We Learned” column.
Among the teams that are hanging by a thread, TCU has the week off before they finish their season against Air Force. Speaking of Air Force, they host BYU this week. The Zoomies have a chance to knock BYU’s probability of a BCS bid from infinitesimal to zero.