Fourth and Dumb

Congrats to DanGr, who managed to become the first FnD writer to have a winning record for the week. It only took two weeks, folks!

Also – a quick plug here for the Fourth and Dumb College Pick ‘Em Challenge on ESPN.com. Some of you have joined but neglected to submit picks for a week for two. (I’m looking at YOU, Dan Greenstein.)

This week’s guest picker is Craig Barker. Craig is a member of the University of Michigan quiz bowl team in the previous century, longtime member of the Mike Keenan Employment Agency trash team, and a man currently enjoying his quiz bowl retirement. A Michigan football fan for so long he can still vividly remember listening to Mike Gilette’s field goal to beat Iowa in 1985, he has resigned himself to the fact that he will never be the most famous member of his collegiate graduating class. (Curse you Tom Brady, you handsome devil.) When not posting not-quite-as-witty-as-he-thinks rejoinders on various points on the Internet, he can be found blogging about Michigan athletics (including the Marching Band) at The Hoover Street Rag.

Based on our records after two weeks, I’m not sure we can do much worse. Here’s to hoping the season improves. Moving on!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 3’ »

So, a college football blog should probably provide some attention to the sport’s biggest game. As an unabashed Gator, it’s hard for me to even get close to objective, but I am aware how razor thin the Gators’ margin was in that game. How different might the result have been had Oklahoma gotten seven on either of its two trips inside teh Gator five yard line in the first half? What if Ahmad Black doesn’t rip that ball away from Manuel Iglesias?

Of course, championships are won by making those plays, and Oklahoma didn’t make them. Add today’s announcement that Tebow will return for his senior season, and you’ve got a lot of happy Gators out there.

I figure that Harvin and Spikes are gone. Both should be first round picks, unlike Timmy, and both now have two rings. There’s no reason for them to risk injury and leave money on the table. I want them to go off and have big careers (please, Ahura Mazda, steer Percy to the Bucs).

Still, as is perenially the case, there are a bunch of teams with beefs, the two most legitimate of which are, in order, Utah’s and USC’s. Texas’s argument lost some of its strength because of the closeness of its win against Ohio State (who, fairly or unfairly, is now considered BCS dogmeat forever until it can blow away a Southern team) and by the poor performance of the Big 12 in the bowls. Utah, however, beat Bama more handily than UF did and went undefeated. Still, few folks not wearing magic underwear would seriously argue that Utah would’ve gone 13-0 in the SEC. USC, however, plays in a big-time conference (well, sort of) which shone in the post season, going 5-0. And then they laid a big whipping on Penn State, though I suspect that the fact that they let the Nittanies kind of hang around in the second half doesn’t help their cause too much, nor does the fact that right now no one expects the Big Ten to be able to win BCS games against anybody. As much as I respect what Utah did, the game I’d sure like to see is UF-USC. These two programs have to hook up sometime soon, and if they can do so in the BCS CG as undefeated teams next year, it will be the biggest college football game of the BCS era, and maybe ever. If Mark Sanchez stays, we might just get to see it; well, as long as USC can get by the ferocious Beavers and UF can get by its visit to Starkville, where they’ll not only meet up with former OC Dan Mullen, who might have some ideas how to slow the offense he ran, and where they’ll have to face their Mississipi Curse, which somehow for twenty years has seen them play poorly against teams from that state.

Now to find something to do for the next nine months . . . better go to Rivals to check out the recruits . . .

In earlier columns, I announced the matchups for this year’s hypothetical (as opposed to mythical) national championship tournament for the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision and put forth my ideas for reforming the bowl system.  One set of details I left out of my bowl reform piece was how the national champion would be determined.  To wit, I did not mention a BCS National Championship Game.  Chris suggested that the game would exist, as the last game on New Year’s Day, but that was not my intention.  However, neither was it not my intention to necessarily exclude it.  In addition, I mentioned a loosening of conference bowl tie-ins, with the caveat that historical tie-ins like the Rose Bowl’s Big Ten-Pac 10 lineup would remain in place.

Based on my observations throughout this year’s bowl season, I decided to explore the idea of a Plus One.  For the uninitiated, the Plus One is a system where the bowls are held as normal, then a separate championship game is held between the two highest rated teams about a week after the conclusion of the bowl season.

For the purposes of this framework, lets have five BCS bowls exclusive of the BCS National Championship Game.  Keep the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange Bowls in the mix, and return the Cotton Bowl to the top tier of bowls after 15 years as a second class bowl.  Now is a good a time as any with the game set to move to Jerry World next year.  For the bowl tie-ins, have the Big Ten and Pac 10 meet as usual in the Rose Bowl, the SEC host the Sugar Bowl, the ACC host the Orange Bowl, and the Big 12 host the Cotton Bowl.  For the Fiesta Bowl, have the automatic at-large selection from the lesser conferences host the game; otherwise, if there is no qualifier from Les Petit Cinq, the Big East is the host conference.  Under this system, the 2009 matchups would have been as follows:

Rose Bowl: Penn State v. USC

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State v. Utah

Cotton Bowl: Alabama v. Oklahoma

Sugar Bowl: Texas v. Florida

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech

If you have been following this bowl season carefully, then you realize that something is wrong with these matchups.  Yes, the matchups have been put together in such a way that we effectively have national semifinals in the Sugar Bowl and Cotton Bowl, based on the BCS standings and using the pre-existing bowl tie-ins as best as can be done.  That will be the natural inclination of the powers that be.  But are the four best teams in the country the four teams in those two games?  What about USC?  There are many people who would have put the Trojans in the top four, even before their smackdown of Penn State in the real Rose Bowl.  What about Utah?  The Utes were the only team in the BCS bowls that came in undefeated.  After we saw how good they were in taking care of Alabama, would anyone outside of Columbus pick against them in this Fiesta Bowl matchup?  Even before their romp of Alabama, they would not have been a significant underdog against the Buckeyes.

There are then four (0r three, if you begrudge Texas for not covering the spread against Ohio State) worthy teams in play for two spots in the National Championship Game.  We are back in the same situation we were in December 7, except we have one more period of data to work with.  While the margin of error is larger under the Plus One compared to the current BCS, it still comes down to chance as to whether this system will work well.  When there are four teams that are clearly superior to the rest, and those four teams are matched up in two bowls, the system is guaranteed to work well.  However, when that does not happen, there is a chance that a very deserving team will be excluded from the national championship picture.  You cannot have both the full tradition and a non-mythical national champion.  The Plus One is not going to change that.

Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot.

Ole Miss didn’t just beat Texas Tech, they handled them on both sides of the ball. This is the same TT offense that scored a ton of points on Texas and got over 30 on Oklahoma, but the Rebels got tons of pressure on Harrell and gouged them with the run game. Does this tell us that Florida will be able to run consistently on Oklahoma and get pressure on Bradford with just the front four, allowing LBs and DBs to stay in coverage?

But wait–what about Utah dominating Bama? The Utes got seven sacks on JP Wilson and locked down Glen Coffee in ways that the Gators clearly couldn’t.

Maybe none of this tells us too much. I know I was personally annoyed at the ass-kissing that Brent Musburger and my wife’s favorite sportscaster, Kirk Herbstreit, laid on the Trojans, continually suggesting that USC had gotten screwed and would frighten either Oklahoma or UF. Sure, it sucks that USC lost the one-loss beauty pageant, but their loss was indeed to Oregon State, a team that got whipped by Oregon and also lost to Utah, who is most obviously the team that has gotten screwed this year. And now we hear a lot about how the Pac 10 went undefeated in the bowls, but look at the opponents: OSU beat Pitt in the snorefest of all snorefests, Oregon won a very entertaining game over Okie State, though after TT’s loss that may not look quite as impressive, Arizona beat an overrated BYU, Cal beat a lackluster Miami team, and USC earned the honor of laying the traditional holiday ass-whupping on the Big 10 champ. Big deal.

Chris Borglum, ladies and gentlemen. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

He is…dare I say it…en fuego.

Commentary and analysis after the jump. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 3’ »

What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.

Going into week four of the season, we’re left with nine teams undefeated out of the smaller conferences. Next week, we’re guaranteed to have it shortened to at least just eight teams with Air Force visiting Utah. Let’s take a look at the nine’s prospective chances this weekend.

East Carolina, 3-0

Two impressive wins to open the season is quickly followed by a tough road game against Tulane.

Next game: @ North Carolina State. NC State has looked pretty inept offensively against their real competition, though Clemson and South Carolina have solid defenses. If East Carolina can shut down the Wolf Pack, they’ll look more like a legitimate team than they already do. I think they’ll survive this weekend.

Tulsa, 2-0

The other Conference USA team on this list, Tulsa is something of a sleeper in this list of sleepers – they have talent and a schedule that should not be too challenging. They shouldn’t have too many issues until late October comes.

Next game: New Mexico. NM is pretty harmless, so this shouldn’t be an issue for the Golden Hurricanes.

Ball State, 3-0

The lone representative of the MAC, Ball State is in the midst of changing from a long-time doormat to a conference contender. Jason Whitlock predicted them to go undefeated this year, and it could happen with sufficient luck. The game at Indiana, along with closing the season out against Miami of Ohio, Central and Western Michigan won’t make this easy, though.

Next game: @ Indiana. This should be a pretty major challenge – it’s a rivalry road game, which is rarely easy. The level of competition has not been very tough so far this year, so the Cardinals might not be properly prepared, but I still give them the edge over a mediocre Indiana team.

Air Force, 3-0

An easy schedule is the reason Air Force is here. They struggled on the road against Houston, and Houston’s not particularly good.

Next game: Utah. This is a Buster elimination game, and I will be shocked if Air Force is the one left standing.

TCU, 3-0

Thanks to Utah and BYU’s big wins, it’s expected that TCU is overlooked here. Don’t sleep on the Horned Frogs; for starters, that sounds very uncomfortable, and they could be the best team in the Mountain West. Keep an eye on them

Next game: @ SMU. No reason this should be a problem for TCU.

Utah, 3-0

After getting a big road win at Michigan, Utah has dismantled UNLV and Utah State. There’s a lot of talent on this team, and they’re a favorite of mine to flirt with the BCS.

Next game: @ Air Force. If you can win at Michigan – even a depleted Michigan – you can win at Air Force. They’ll go to 4-0.

BYU, 3-0

Well, that’s one way to make a statement. UCLA, who beat Tennessee (thanks in no small part to a fair share of luck), losing by 59 points in a shut out is pretty shameful for the Bruins, but a definite point of pride for the Cougars. No reason this should stop this weekend.

Next game: Wyoming. This should be a fairly easy win for the Cougars.

Troy, 2-0

Our token Sun Belt team! Not much to say here – wins against Middle Tennessee State and Alcorn State is not much to be proud of. Staying on this list due to a delayed game against LSU does nothing to help the cause.

Next game: @ Ohio State. OSU didn’t look very good against USC, but Troy is nothing like their west coast Trojan brethren. Ohio State should win going away, reducing this list by one more team.

Boise State, 2-0

Competing for the role as this year’s Boise State is… Boise State! A good win against Bowling Green precedes a huge match up this week.

Next game: @ Oregon. If I was a betting man, I’d place money on the Ducks. Boise State is a legit team, though, and a win wouldn’t be surprising. Still, I favor Oregon in a close one.

So, my official prediction is that this watch list will be reduced to six teams after tomorrow’s games are done.

Congratulations to Fred, who picked every single game correctly last week, in what has proven to be the most competitive week so far in this season.

I’d also like to issue some heartfelt condolences to Chris, who lost his senses the week after deciding to pick against the chalk, save for Michigan and Boise State. Well, at least he got one game right.

It’s a close race at the top, with only one game separating DanGr and Fred. Why the hell DID you pick UVa in Week 1, Greenstein?

On to week 4!

#20 Utah (-7.5) at Air Force, Sat 4:00 PM Versus
Fred: Hope everyone’s prepared for a BCS contender delivering a curbstomp.
Chris: Whatever.

#6 LSU (-2) at #10 Auburn, Sat 7:45 pm ESPN
Chris: LSU runs, runs, runs over Auburn, whose QBs combine for less than 200
yards passing.
DanGr: Auburn’s offense will do slightly better against LSU’s defense than LSU’s offense will do against Auburn’s defense. (My brain hurts. – Ed.)

Boise State (+12.5) at #17 Oregon, Sat 3:30 pm
DanGr: This team is probably the second best in the league and they will show it against the Broncos. This should be over before the fourth quarter.

Central Michigan (+10.5) at Purdue, Sat 12pm Big Ten Network
DanGr: Central Michigan is a decent team, but the speed and strength of the Boilermakers will prevail in West Lafayette.
Chris: Central Michigan’s Tebow knock-off QB goes wild. And if they’re not the one with the Tebow knock-off, so what; some guy on their offense will run wild.

#18 Wake Forest (+4.5) at #24 Florida State, Sat 7pm ESPN2
Chris: The Noles’ running game will gash the Dekes, and Preston Parker’s
return will help Christian Ponder make some big plays.
DanGo: I still find it hard to give Florida State a lot of credit, putting up points on two defenseless (literally) SoCon teams. Wake Forest may not be that awesome, but they’ll tough it out while Jimbo Fisher’s future tenure starts fading away.

Iowa (+1.5) at Pittsburgh, Sat 12pm ESPN2
Fred: Oh boy, the Overrated Coach Bowl! I’m going to gargle bleach
rather than watch this crap.
Chris: Why did I pick this game? Seriously, what’s wrong with me?

Miami (FL) (-3) at Texas A&M, Sat 3:30pm ABC
Fred: Miami is slightly above average. Texas A&M is actively bad.

Here is the follow-up column to last week’s future tense quintet,
brought to you in fantastic, high definition hindsight.

1.  Which teams are terrible. The Football Championship Subdivision
had its weakest opening weekend in years, needing to wait until after
midnight ET to claim its sole victim.  That victim was San Diego
State, which fell to Cal Poly on a game ending field goal.  Either the
Football Bowl Subdivision is stronger this year against their little
brothers, or the bottom of the barrel FBS schools chose their prey
wisely.

Among the highlighted games, Eastern Michigan obliterated Indiana
State, Marshall clobbered Illinois State, and Duke smashed James Mad.
San Jose State needed a last minute touchdown to escape from the jaws
of UC Davis.  Other close games, which should send up red flags for
the schools in question, were Delaware at Maryland (14-7 Terps),
McNeese State at North Carolina (35-27 Tar Heels), and Western
Illinois at Arkansas (28-24 Hogs).

2.  Which Division I football subdivision champion is superior in a
one-game series. While Appalachian State is still the favorite to
rock and roll all the way to Chattanooga, this game was no contest, as
the Bayou Bengals of LSU rolled to a 41-13 victory over the
Mountaneers.  Apparently LSU turned the tables and decided to put the
target on Appy’s back to avoid any chance of a Michigan-type upset.
It also helps to have a positive talent disparity, which will only
bring up again the old canard about the speed differences between the
SEC and Big 11.

3.  Which BCS Busters look good, which BCS Busters look shaky, and
which BCS Busters are out. All three teams highlighted in this space
are 1-0 in their quest to become America’s Next Top Mid-Major.  Utah
took a big lead at the Big House and held serve at the end to defeat
Michigan.  Fresno State crushed Rutgers in their first ever trip to
the east coast.  East Carolina employed vintage Beamer Ball to play
rude host to Virginia Tech.  A few more teams are expected to throw
their hats in the ring next week once they too knock off someone from
Les Six.

4.  Who gets an early lead in the conference races. Troy took early
control of the Sun Belt by going up to Murfreesboro and smacking
Middle Tennessee State.  Oregon State fumbled away its chance at a
come-from-behind win at Stanford.  New Mexico played dead at home
against opossum-hunter TCU.  Grain won over meat in the SMU-Rice
matchup.  Oregon dry cleaned Washington in the House of Quack.
Finally, in a game this column overlooked last week, Tulsa went to
Birmingham and did not love the gov’nuh, beating up on hometown UAB.

5.  Which good and potentially great teams can walk the walk. Clemson
made the wrong kind of statement at the Georgia Dome, running with
their tails between their legs up I-85 to escape the resurgent Crimson
Tide.  The expectations are now going to explode in Tuscaloosa.  The
next big thing is a matchup with Georgia at the end of the month.
In St. Louis, both Illinois and Missouri looked good, but the Tigers
took the early lead and left with the Braggin’ Rights.  Finally, the
ultimate game of the weekend saw UCLA turn Tennessee’s California
Dreamin’ into a nightmare as they knocked off the Vols in overtime.

It’s the first ever Fourth & Dumb weekly pick ‘em, starring your favorite college football bloggers.

Here’s how it’s going to work: we’re going to select 7 of the best games each week, and each attempt to pick the winners. We’ll keep a running total, and at the end of the season, someone may or may not get a trinket.

Here’s the rundown for week 1:

Alabama at Clemson
DanGr: Alabama will be good this season, but it will not show in this game at the Georgia Dome. Clemson under Tommy Bowden has a history of strong starts to the season, so Clemson should win this one without much trouble.
Fred: Clemson has, on paper, the most talent. James Davis is one of the best running backs around, and backup CJ Spiller is certainly not a hack. In fact, they could repeat what Arkansas did last year with two 1000 yard rushers. For Alabama, there is a lot of expectations, but it unfortunately doesn’t look like it’ll be filled this year. While the on paper thing hasn’t always worked out in the past, I think the Tigers have enough to go on this time. I’ll give the nod to Clemson.

Illinois at Missouri
DanGo: It’s hard to argue with the Daniel to Maclin connection. Juice Williams will be a threat for the Illini, but there’s not much of a chance that the Tigers don’t dominate this matchup.
Fred: Illinois is pretty overrated this year, which is expected after last season’s unexpected bounce back. The Big Ten is much stronger this year than last, and Illinois faces the issue of decent but not great talent. Missouri is a legitimate national title contender. The rushing game is a major concern that they will have to address, but the passing game should carry them until they hit the heart of their schedule and it’ll be more necessary. There is no reason Missouri shouldn’t win this game with ease.

NC State at South Carolina
Chris: South Carolina wins and covers; Spurrier Senior hits Spurrier Junior with his visor at least once.
DanGr: Tom O’Brien still has a lot of work to do to make the Wolfpack relevant again, while Steve Spurrier will have his team recovered from its end of season swoon in 2007.

James Madison at Duke
DanGo: As much as I’d love to jump on the Duke bandwagon this year, I’m still not entirely convinced. James Madison has made the FCS 1-AA playoffs three of the last four years; and it’s not like Duke would exactly be tops of say, the Sun Belt conference. I’m going with the Dukes over Duke.
DanGr: Despite the 1-11 record, Duke was not a completely lost cause last year. They have a surprisingly good quarterback, Thaddeus Lewis, who would start at at least three other schools in the ACC.

Tennessee at UCLA
DanGr: Do you remember what happened the last time Tennessee traveled to California? The Bruins pull the upset.
Fred: UCLA is going to have a very rough season. Rick Neuheisel has a reputation for good results in a short time period, but even with a healthy Ben Olsen they would have faced difficulties this season due to a very tough schedule. Tennessee would finish no lower than third in any other conference in the nation; in the SEC, they’ll be lucky to finish third in the East division. They have a load of talent, including their top four receivers, running back Arian Foster, 3/4 of their secondary and four offensive linemen returning. Overall, I favor Tennessee in this match up.

USC at Virginia
Chris: Hide away the women and children, Cavaliers; this one will be ugly for you.
DanGr: (Apologies for the length, but this is too good not to share in its entirety. – Ed.) This will go down as the most awesomely bad pick in the history of the universe, but I am picking the massive upset, making me the only person outside of Albemarle County and the Independent City of Charlottesville to choose the orange and blue. Virginia had a good season last year, but they appear to have issues this season. However, everyone will see this game in the schedule list and automatically pick USC to win based on their ranking and their history. However, quarterback Mark “Dirty” Sanchez will be shaky coming off an injury. It does not help that he was not that great when he got the “Booty Call” last season in the Stanford game, which was the biggest point spread upset ever. USC is not invincible outside of the Coliseum. This is not your older brother’s USC team. The crowd at Scott Stadium is going to be nuts, and will be double nuts when the home team is still hanging around in the fourth quarter. They will be triple nuts when the Cavaliers pull the biggest upset since the English Civil War.

Utah at Michigan
Chris: Michigan couldn’t lose their opener to a non-conference team twice in a row, could they? Sure they can–why not?
DanGr: Utah is one of those BCS Buster type teams that needs perfection. The dream will die as the Wolverines play more inspired football than last year in their season debut at the Big House.

Stay tuned next week, when we recap how we did, and take another shot at finding seven decent games to pick.