Fourth and Dumb

In earlier columns, I announced the matchups for this year’s hypothetical (as opposed to mythical) national championship tournament for the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision and put forth my ideas for reforming the bowl system.  One set of details I left out of my bowl reform piece was how the national champion would be determined.  To wit, I did not mention a BCS National Championship Game.  Chris suggested that the game would exist, as the last game on New Year’s Day, but that was not my intention.  However, neither was it not my intention to necessarily exclude it.  In addition, I mentioned a loosening of conference bowl tie-ins, with the caveat that historical tie-ins like the Rose Bowl’s Big Ten-Pac 10 lineup would remain in place.

Based on my observations throughout this year’s bowl season, I decided to explore the idea of a Plus One.  For the uninitiated, the Plus One is a system where the bowls are held as normal, then a separate championship game is held between the two highest rated teams about a week after the conclusion of the bowl season.

For the purposes of this framework, lets have five BCS bowls exclusive of the BCS National Championship Game.  Keep the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange Bowls in the mix, and return the Cotton Bowl to the top tier of bowls after 15 years as a second class bowl.  Now is a good a time as any with the game set to move to Jerry World next year.  For the bowl tie-ins, have the Big Ten and Pac 10 meet as usual in the Rose Bowl, the SEC host the Sugar Bowl, the ACC host the Orange Bowl, and the Big 12 host the Cotton Bowl.  For the Fiesta Bowl, have the automatic at-large selection from the lesser conferences host the game; otherwise, if there is no qualifier from Les Petit Cinq, the Big East is the host conference.  Under this system, the 2009 matchups would have been as follows:

Rose Bowl: Penn State v. USC

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State v. Utah

Cotton Bowl: Alabama v. Oklahoma

Sugar Bowl: Texas v. Florida

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech

If you have been following this bowl season carefully, then you realize that something is wrong with these matchups.  Yes, the matchups have been put together in such a way that we effectively have national semifinals in the Sugar Bowl and Cotton Bowl, based on the BCS standings and using the pre-existing bowl tie-ins as best as can be done.  That will be the natural inclination of the powers that be.  But are the four best teams in the country the four teams in those two games?  What about USC?  There are many people who would have put the Trojans in the top four, even before their smackdown of Penn State in the real Rose Bowl.  What about Utah?  The Utes were the only team in the BCS bowls that came in undefeated.  After we saw how good they were in taking care of Alabama, would anyone outside of Columbus pick against them in this Fiesta Bowl matchup?  Even before their romp of Alabama, they would not have been a significant underdog against the Buckeyes.

There are then four (0r three, if you begrudge Texas for not covering the spread against Ohio State) worthy teams in play for two spots in the National Championship Game.  We are back in the same situation we were in December 7, except we have one more period of data to work with.  While the margin of error is larger under the Plus One compared to the current BCS, it still comes down to chance as to whether this system will work well.  When there are four teams that are clearly superior to the rest, and those four teams are matched up in two bowls, the system is guaranteed to work well.  However, when that does not happen, there is a chance that a very deserving team will be excluded from the national championship picture.  You cannot have both the full tradition and a non-mythical national champion.  The Plus One is not going to change that.

“I don’t think there’s anybody in the country who can beat us at this point.”–Colt McCoy, after beating Ohio State with a last-second pass.

“With all due respect, I don’t think anybody can beat us.”–Pete Carroll, after beating Penn State.

Boy, there’s nothing like the confidence of folks whose teams are finished. McCoy’s comment particularly galls me, considering he said this after needing a late comeback and a ridiculously close spot on a fourth down conversion to beat now-perennial BCS doormat Ohio State. Seriously, does barely beating the Buckeyes have some cache I’m not aware of, giving one the right to suggest his team is unbeatable?

Both McCoy and Carroll have legit beefs with the BCS selection process this year, but only the Trojans made a true statement about their snub, and even their win is at least a tiny bit suspect, considering how poorly the Big Ten fared in bowls this year and how bad they’ve been in the BCS the last few years.

I’ll tell you this much: watching Texas whiff on tackle attempts at Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor has to again call into question Big 12 defenses. Fortunately for the Gators, they have what Oklahoma DB Dominique Franks rates as the fourth-best quarterback in the Big 12–take that Stephen McGee and Joe Ganz!

Chris Borglum, ladies and gentlemen. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

He is…dare I say it…en fuego.

Commentary and analysis after the jump. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 3’ »

And no, I am not talking about the Wildcat formation.  I am talking about the newfangled trend of teams designating a coach in waiting to take over a program once the current coach rides off into the sunset or moves upstairs.  While the concept of a succession plan has been ever present, it is only in the past two years that sitting in the white chair has become trendy.

Prior to three weeks ago, the purpose of a succession plan was to ensure a smooth transition once the current head coach retired from coaching.  Keeping the same system going and most of the same staff in place is very important when it comes to recruiting, as recruits may jump ship if the new guy intends to bring in a system with which they disagree.  The coaching succession is enacted in either of two ways:

- The current coach decides to retire in x years.  This is what happened a year ago when Joe TIller decided to retire at Purdue.  He appointed as his coach-designate Danny Hope, who was the head coach at Eastern Kentucky University.  The plan was similar to one Purdue experienced a few years earlier when Southern Illinois basketball coach Matt Painter joined Gene Keady’s staff the year before Keady retired.

A similar situation occurred at the University of Wisconsin, where Bret Bielema was hired as Barry Alvarez’s defensive coordinator a year before Alvarez retired from coaching in 2005.  Incidentally, Alverez had become the athletic director shortly beforehand and would leave behind his headset to take on the AD duty full time.

Another example of this phenonmenon was enacted last year by the Seattle Seahawks.  Mike Holmgren will be retiring after the 2008 NFL season.  He will be replaced by Jim L. Mora, a succession that is now in question due to rumors on Wikipedia that he will replace Tyrone Willingham at the University of Washington.

- The current coach decides to retire at an indeterminate time in the future.  This is the situation at Florida State, where Jimbo Fisher was hired as offensive coordinator and will succeed Bobby Bowden once he designs to call it quits in Tallahassee, whenever he decides to stop chasing Joe Paterno.

A similar situation occurred at Kentucky.  However, instead of hiring someone from the outside, RIch Brooks designated the current offensive coordinator Joker Phillips to be his successor at the unknown date in the future he retires.

This situation also occured in the NBA several years ago when Don Nelson of the Dallas Mavericks appointed Avery Johnson as his successor.  Bet you forgot that one, didn’t you?  After all, Nelson unretired and is now coaching the Golden State Warriors and Avery Johnson is a sporadic analyst on ESPN.

A much more recent trend features an explication of the need for continuity, but has the implication that the athletic department is trying to keep other programs’ grubby paws off of their hot assistant.  These plans almost always have an indefinite enactment date and a shiny veneer of insincerity.  The first example of such a plan occurred at the University of Texas.  Once observations showed that defensive coordinator Will Muschamp would be a hot commodity on the coaching carousel, the Longhorns decided to lock him up and lock him down by designating him as Mack Brown’s successor.  To realize the absurdity and boldness of this move, know that Mack Brown’s contract runs through 2016, and that everyone admits it could be a long time before Brown steps down and Muschamp ascends to the throne.

A similar situation occured at Oregon this week, but with a more complex setup.  The Ducks made offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has downtrodden programs drooling, the head coach designate for whenever Mike Bellotti decides to turn in his headset.  But wait.  There’s more!  Bellotti, for his part, is now the athletic director designate for when current AD Pat Kilkenny retires.  However, it will be Bellotti’s decision as to when he ascends to the front office.  To add another layer of intrigue, the deal was brokered by outgoing University of Oregon president Dave Frohnmayer.

Oregon’s complicated plan also solves the problem of athletic director continuity, a lesson that should not be lost on programs that bungle their coach hiring decisions.  Come on down, athletic director Daryl Gross of Syracuse University!  Your head is next on the chopping block!

Dan Greenstein wins the week, going an impressive 6-1 to clear DanGo by a full game.

#1 Texas (-4.0) at #7 Texas Tech, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Fred: Madden scoring in this game, folks. I’m looking forward to it, if only so I can have a passing-induced seizure that makes Porygon look kid friendly.
DanGr: This is the biggest test the Longhorns will face in 2008. The game will come down to how well the defenses can stop the offenses. Texas has the better defense, so they will prevail in a shootout that comes down to the last five minutes.

#24 Oregon (+2.5) at California, Saturday 3:30pm ABC
Fred: Did you know that Donald Duck is one of the mascots of the Ducks, and Disney is signed on with this? The More You Know (NBC tone).
DanGr: The Golden Bears will grab momentum and end Oregon’s conference hopes before a sharp impulse next week at USC ends Cal’s conference hopes. It will be close, but Cal will lay better at home than Oregon will play on the road.

#8 Florida (-6.5) at #6 Georgia, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: The big story here is going to be the Gator pass rush and run defense; the former will keep Stafford off balance, so the question is whether the latter can slow Moreno. I think they can, and I think that Demps and Rainey will break off some long ones in the second half to lead the Gators to a comfortable win. But yeah, like you’d expect me to say anything else.
DanGr: It will be a shootout between the teams that hung half a hundred on LSU. Georgia will come closest to repeating that feat as the Matt Stafford-A.J. Green connection makes the difference.

Miami (FL) (+2.5) at Virginia, Saturday 12:00pm Raycom Sports
DanGo: I don’t know what’s going on in Charlottesville, but somehow these guys have moved themselves to the top of the Gordian Knot that is the ACC Coastal Division. The Wahoos are 4-1 at home this year, and I don’t see any reason for that to change.
Fred: At some point Virginia has to be terrible like they’re supposed to be.
Right? Right?

#16 Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
DanGo: Another ranked ACC team is the underdog versus an unranked conference foe. The ‘Noles are probably better than everyone gives them credit for; their defense played well against Virginia Tech last week, especially against the run, and the Yellow Jackets are averaging only about 115 passing yards per game. Look for the Florida sweep this week with a win in Atlanta.

Pittsburgh (+5) at Notre Dame, Saturday 2:30 NBC
Chris: No analysis: I just hate the Domers.
Fred: This is more of a “holy hell Pitt’s a mess” pick than a “yeaaaaaaaaaaah Notre Dame” pick.

Northwestern (+7.5) at Minnesota, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
We’re all just taking a blind pick at this one; there’s really not a lot of positive things worth commenting about for either team.

This is gonna be an exciting weekend of football to watch.

Posting picks quickly prior to the Auburn – WVU kickoff. Commentary to follow.

Fred and I split last week, each going 5-2. Fred made a great pick with Texas Christian; the Horned Frogs devoured a previously-undefeated BYU team.

#3 Penn State (-1.0) at #9 Ohio State, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Joe Pa’s teams have a hard time winning in the Horseshoe, and this time will be no different.
DanGr: The Buckeyes looked great last game, but it helps to play against a subpar defense. The Penn State defense, while not as stout as that of OSU, is a parsec better than Michigan
State’s defense.

#7 Georgia (+1.5) at #13 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
DanGo: I’m going with a hunch on this one. Georgia’s a slight underdog on the road, in one of the most intimidating place to play in the country. The Tigers D gets in some shots on Moreno, and wins a close one.
DanGr: Georgia has the better offensive stars, but LSU has a significant advantage on the lines. The Bulldogs keep their dreamsalive by winning a close one.

#8 Texas Tech (Pick ‘Em) at #23 Kansas, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This is the Red Raiders’ warmup prior to next week’s game with Texas that will probably determine who wins the Big 12 South. Kansas is good, but their defense won’t be able to slow down the Red Raiders, whose biggest question lies with their kicking game.

Auburn (+5.0) at West Virginia, Thurdsay 7:30pm ESPN
DanGr: West Virginia over Auburn. The executives at ESPN are crying in their beer about a late non-conference game they thought would involve two Top 15 teams. This will not be ugly as Auburn’s baseball match with Mississippi State, but it will be a snoozefest. West Virginia wins based on the home field advantage and the Tigers still being in disarray.

Virginia Tech (+6.0) at #25 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
DanGo: As much as I hate to pick against the Hokies, I was incredibly unimpressed by the passing game of the Hokies last week; their lack of a willingness to throw the ball to the team’s young receivers meant that Tyrod Taylor had to do it all, and the BC defense was able to keep him in check for at least part of the day. Ponder’s developing well and should lead the ‘Noles to a close victory.

#6 Oklahoma State (+10.5) at #1 Texas, Saturday 3:30 ABC
DanGr: Who is Zac Robinson? That is the question America will be asking after he tears it up against the Longhorns. But it will be for naught as Texas remains undefeated behind a monster day from Colt McCoy in a shootout.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Connecticut, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN Plus
DanGr: This Huskies team has fallen apart after an excellent start to the season. Both teams have injury issues. Cincy’s are less devastating, and they will win.

Last week was a rough week for all of us, but Chris again proves victorious.

In the meantime, he didn’t submit his picks for this week, so we’re picking (against the chalk) for him!

Chris finally got his picks in…silly technical difficulties.

Not much time to make comments right now, but here we go.

#1 Texas (Last week: #7)
#2 Penn State (3)
#3 Alabama (5)
#4 Texas Tech (4)
#5 Florida (12)

#6 BYU (8)
#7 Utah (9)
#8 USC (10)
#9 Oklahoma (1)
#10 Ohio State (11)

#11 Boise State (13)
#12 Georgia (14)
#13 Oklahoma St (22)
#14 Missouri (2)
#15 Florida State (16)

#16 LSU (6)
#17 Virginia Tech (17)
#18 North Carolina (UR)
#19 Tulsa (19)
#20 Ball State (20)

#21 South Florida (21)
#22 California (23)
#23 TCU (25)
#24 Vanderbilt (15)
#25 Minnesota (UR)

Dropping out: #18 Northwestern, #24 Notre Dame

Last five out: Michigan State, Cincinnati, Oregon, South Carolina, Pittsburgh

Hey look, Chris won the week! Picking against the chalk and conventional wisdom proved fruitful, bringing him within four games of .500 for the season.

There’s a great slate of matchups this week; there will be contenders eliminated after this week. Hopefully none of them will have to face Nitro in the Joust.

Clemson (+2.5) at #21 Wake Forest, Thursday 7:30pm ESPN
Chris: Wake Forest will beat Clemson because Clemson is coached by Tommy Bowden, who may distracted by how good his players look in their tight pants.

#4 LSU (+6) at #11 Florida, Sat 8:00pm CBS
Chris: Florida will slip by LSU by single digits on the strength of some long runs by Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and strong linebacker play which will limit LSU’s run game (a little) and force them to try to win through the air, not their strong suit this year.
DanGr: The Gator loss to Ole Miss revealed some cracks in the foundation. The Tigers will turn those cracks into breaches behind the steady play of newfound prime quarterback Jarrett Lee. Granted, LSU is not without flaws, which Florida will use to keep this close until the end. The oddsmakers pick LSU to lose by 6, which they will be doing before a successful nutjob, brass ball Les Miles decision in the final minute.

#5 Texas (+6.5) at #1 Oklahoma, Sat 12:00pm ABC
DanGo: IThe Big 12 has begun to resemble the NBA All-Star game — who the hell plays defense at these things? Rice and Tulsa combined for 1030 yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns and Sooners surpassed that.
DanGr: The Sooners always come to play hard in Dallas, something Texas can only surmount when the Longhorns are clearly superior on paper. Some things never change. Add another notch–not to mention a ten gallon hat–to the belt of Bob Stoops.

South Carolina (-1) at Kentucky, Sat 12:30pm Raycom
DanGo: South Carolina may be a slim favorite in this game, but the ‘Cats have peaked more recently, even though they were given a bit of a boost by Leigh Tiffin’s leg. Kentucky wins in a squeaker.

Notre Dame (+7.5) at #22 North Carolina, Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGr: North Carolina is ranked for the first time since 2001. Notre Dame is not ranked, which is just as good since if they were they would be called overrated. Both teams are greatly improved over last year, but only one of them can win this week. Bruce Carter will be the different for the Tar Heels as he blocks at least one punt to make the difference in a close game.

#6 Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin, Sat 8:00pm ESPN
DanGo: Wisconsin’s chances for legitimacy disappeared after back-to-back close losses to Michigan and Ohio State on consecutive weekends. Penn State is for real, and Wisconin will drop three straight.

#17 Oklahoma State (+14) at #3 Missouri, Sat 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Missouri will beat the living hell out of Oklahoma State, though the Cowboys will score some points on Mizzou’s defense. Mike Van Gundy will then call his brothers Stan and Jeff to cry, even though he’s a man who’s now 41.