Fourth and Dumb

Some ideas related to the projected formation of the Big 64, a collection of four 16-team conferences:

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

The Great Conference Realignment of 2010 is now underway!  You, too, can watch with whatever range of emotions you desire or desire to be assaulted into feeling as the Big 12 Conference is torn apart like Simon in Lord of the Flies.

While buzz has been going on for a week now based on sources who wish to remain anonymous and officials of various corporeal bodies have been meeting in varying degrees of secrecy, the first substantive moves appear to be underway.

• On Wednesday evening, Nebraska started the fall of the dominoes by making its move into the Big 10 camp.  The Big 10 will have 12 members, enough for a championship game the first weekend of December, but it would be foolish to expect them to declare themselves sated on corn.  Meanwhile, as it now stands, the Big 12 Championship Game cannot be played no matter how much Dr. Pepper is supplied.
• On Thursday morning, Colorado landed a punch on the shrinking great plains conference from the opposite side by announcing it was heading to the Pac 10.  The Big 12 is now down to ten, as equal a misnomer as the Big 10 with 12 teams, and the Pac-10 has entered the land of the misnomer by taking itself to 11.  Given 11 is a crappy number, a 12th member for the Pac-10 cannot be far behind.
• Not a substantial update, but DanGo points out Utah is a likely candidate for the 12-spot in the Pac-10.  However, Utah would be a consolation prize, because Texas is the crown jewel of the Great Conference Realignment.  Utah is only headed to the Pac-10 if they are rebuffed by Texas, and if they are rebuffed by Texas, the Big 12 will survive.  However, if Texas heads west, they will be followed by the remainder of the Big 12 South ex Baylor.  The Pac-10 will expand to 16, and the Big 12 is headed to the ICU.
• Friday afternoon update: Four days after the decision was delayed, the foregone conclusion came true: Boise State will join the Mountain West in 2011.  The Mountain West takes another step toward a BCS automatic bid and leaves itself available to collect remnants of the Big 12 like Kansas if they are not taken by one of the bigger conferences.  After all, while Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Missouri would make sense to be in the Big Ten from a cultural and aesthetic viewpoint, the ultimate factor is money, and those schools are not the most enticing options for the Big Ten.
• Friday later afternoon update: The bigwigs at the University of Texas are meeting Tuesday morning to discuss defecting to the Pac-10.  Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are set to cut their ties with the Big 12 the moment Texas does, while Texas A&M is also casting longing glances at the SEC.  The next major step in the collapse of the Big 12 should come Tuesday afternoon, unless the Big Ten or perhaps another conference makes a move first.
• Monday morning update: Nothing “official” happened over the weekend, but it appears Texas A&M’s flirtation with the SEC has gotten really serious.  In the event A&M heads east instead of west to the Pac-10, Kansas would take their spot on the Pac-10’s wishlist.  That being said, Texas might be having a change of heart if the Big 12 is willing to draw up an offer the Longhorns cannot refuse and would make them the head honcho of a ten-team conference by all metrics.  Even if Texas A&M defects to the SEC, Texas could stay to be the head of a nine-team conference.  One thing that has not changed is the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech will follow Texas wherever the Horns go.  The number of scenarios has blossomed over the weekend, and the projected timeline has become fuzzy.  We could know the ultimate fate of the Big 12 by Monday evening.
• Final update on Monday evening: The Great Realignment will be a more low-key affair than expected.  Texas has decided to remain in the Big 12.  Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will remain in the Big 12.  The Big 12 will soldier on with ten teams in 2011.  The first act of this morality play is over, but the realignment mojo could become active again.  The next move we expect to see will be the Pac-10 add a 12th team, likely Utah, before realignment goes on the back burner and actual football begins.  See you then!

Three weeks ago, I thought the idea of 16-team conferences was just a series of rumors hatched by the media during a slow news month ahead of conference meetings a few weeks in the future.  However, in the past few days, the idea of a Pacific 16 Conference has grown legs and has some decent sources, and the Big 12, the biggest loser in such a proposition, appears to be dead man walking.  So it looks like the Age of the Superconference is upon us, and within a few years, we will have four 16-team conferences taking in massive amounts of money and a bunch of other conferences relegated to picking up the scraps, which will be even more meager than they are at present.

1.  The Pacific 10 Conference will get the ball rolling by raiding the Big 12.  I will run with the six schools that are rumored to be selected for the west coast superconference: Texas (the keystone), Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado.

2.  The Big Ten Conference, already a misnomer, will become even more misnamed, until they pick up five schools and rename themselves the Big 16, especially since Conferences with Big in Their Names Greater than Ten is cleared by the drawing and quartering of the Big 12.  The Big Ten takes most of the remaining members of the Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa State.  Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Nebraska have been glancing longingly at the Big Ten in the past few months anyway, and the Kansas schools would come along as a package as well.  Iowa State also has a natural rival in Iowa.

3.  The Southeastern Conference is not going to sit on its hands while other conferences go +4 on them.  The SEC will sense weakness in the Atlantic Coast Conference and decide now is the time to raid the southern part of the conference: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.

4.  The remaining eight members of the ACC now need a place to go lest they be demoted to one of the have-nots.  The Big East will be ready and waiting to become the fourth 16-team conference.  The eight football schools of the Big East will combine with the eight ACC schools left behind by the claws of the SEC: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest.

5.  The true colors of the Big East will be revealed when the marriage between the football and basketball schools, already somewhat tenuous, has a spectacular rift.  As a result, the basketball schools will become a hot commodity for another basketball conference.  Which conference would that be?  The Atlantic 10, which actually has 14 teams, will jettison its weaker members and form a new lineup with the prized non-football schools of the Big East.

Since basketball would be the driving force in the new Atlantic 10, the new conference would likely have no more than 12 teams, although 14 is a possibility.  The eight Big East schools–Georgetown, St. John’s, Villanova, Providence, DePaul, Seton Hall, Marquette, and Notre Dame (yes, Notre Dame)–will join the cream of the present Atlantic 10–Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and George Washington–to form a high level conference for basketball.  The remaining ten schools would likely form a newer conference or, less likely, split up into a smaller conference.

6.  Even before conference expansion hit the front page in the middle of the week, Boise State was long rumored to be heading to the Mountain West Conference, bringing their roster to ten.  Does the Mountain West stop there?  If the Mountain West expands further, who would be the prime targets?  A likely scenario sees Baylor, which got disenfranchised when the big boys realigned, joins the Mountain West along with UTEP.  The next four teams in line to join the Mountain West would be Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico State, and Utah State.  However, the specter of the failed 16-team Western Athletic Conference and with an elevation to the big boy table uncertain even with Boise State, the Mountain West may stick to 12 teams…for now.

7.  The MAC and C-USA will likely remain in their present form.  There is almost no chance they benefit from the goings-on among the giants, so they have no incentive to expand beyond 12.  The WAC could be destroyed, depending on the Mountain West does.  If the WAC becomes unviable, the remnants of that conference could become part of the Sun Belt Conference, the lowest of the low.