Fourth and Dumb

Some ideas related to the projected formation of the Big 64, a collection of four 16-team conferences:

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

The Great Conference Realignment of 2010 is now underway!  You, too, can watch with whatever range of emotions you desire or desire to be assaulted into feeling as the Big 12 Conference is torn apart like Simon in Lord of the Flies.

While buzz has been going on for a week now based on sources who wish to remain anonymous and officials of various corporeal bodies have been meeting in varying degrees of secrecy, the first substantive moves appear to be underway.

• On Wednesday evening, Nebraska started the fall of the dominoes by making its move into the Big 10 camp.  The Big 10 will have 12 members, enough for a championship game the first weekend of December, but it would be foolish to expect them to declare themselves sated on corn.  Meanwhile, as it now stands, the Big 12 Championship Game cannot be played no matter how much Dr. Pepper is supplied.
• On Thursday morning, Colorado landed a punch on the shrinking great plains conference from the opposite side by announcing it was heading to the Pac 10.  The Big 12 is now down to ten, as equal a misnomer as the Big 10 with 12 teams, and the Pac-10 has entered the land of the misnomer by taking itself to 11.  Given 11 is a crappy number, a 12th member for the Pac-10 cannot be far behind.
• Not a substantial update, but DanGo points out Utah is a likely candidate for the 12-spot in the Pac-10.  However, Utah would be a consolation prize, because Texas is the crown jewel of the Great Conference Realignment.  Utah is only headed to the Pac-10 if they are rebuffed by Texas, and if they are rebuffed by Texas, the Big 12 will survive.  However, if Texas heads west, they will be followed by the remainder of the Big 12 South ex Baylor.  The Pac-10 will expand to 16, and the Big 12 is headed to the ICU.
• Friday afternoon update: Four days after the decision was delayed, the foregone conclusion came true: Boise State will join the Mountain West in 2011.  The Mountain West takes another step toward a BCS automatic bid and leaves itself available to collect remnants of the Big 12 like Kansas if they are not taken by one of the bigger conferences.  After all, while Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Missouri would make sense to be in the Big Ten from a cultural and aesthetic viewpoint, the ultimate factor is money, and those schools are not the most enticing options for the Big Ten.
• Friday later afternoon update: The bigwigs at the University of Texas are meeting Tuesday morning to discuss defecting to the Pac-10.  Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are set to cut their ties with the Big 12 the moment Texas does, while Texas A&M is also casting longing glances at the SEC.  The next major step in the collapse of the Big 12 should come Tuesday afternoon, unless the Big Ten or perhaps another conference makes a move first.
• Monday morning update: Nothing “official” happened over the weekend, but it appears Texas A&M’s flirtation with the SEC has gotten really serious.  In the event A&M heads east instead of west to the Pac-10, Kansas would take their spot on the Pac-10’s wishlist.  That being said, Texas might be having a change of heart if the Big 12 is willing to draw up an offer the Longhorns cannot refuse and would make them the head honcho of a ten-team conference by all metrics.  Even if Texas A&M defects to the SEC, Texas could stay to be the head of a nine-team conference.  One thing that has not changed is the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech will follow Texas wherever the Horns go.  The number of scenarios has blossomed over the weekend, and the projected timeline has become fuzzy.  We could know the ultimate fate of the Big 12 by Monday evening.
• Final update on Monday evening: The Great Realignment will be a more low-key affair than expected.  Texas has decided to remain in the Big 12.  Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will remain in the Big 12.  The Big 12 will soldier on with ten teams in 2011.  The first act of this morality play is over, but the realignment mojo could become active again.  The next move we expect to see will be the Pac-10 add a 12th team, likely Utah, before realignment goes on the back burner and actual football begins.  See you then!

1.  Whether Arizona will take the next step under Mike Stoops. It took five years, but the Wildcats finally broke through and ended the Pac-10’s longest bowl drought.  With that Stoops earned some well-earned job security…for now.  His sixth season is a time of change, as the face of the program for the past four years, quarterback Willie Tuitama, has exhausted his eligibility.  While the program is in no danger of descending into the chaos of the reign of John Mackovic (who is currently the coach of the U.S. national football team), it may be inevitable that they will struggle to earn a bowl berth in 2009.  For the good of the program, it may just be a hiccup on the way to the program’s first ever Rose Bowl in the next few years.

2.  Which Arizona State team will return in 2009: 2007 or 2008. Dennis Erickson’s first season with Sun Devils was a resounding success, as the vagabond coach parlayed an 8-0 start into a berth in the Holiday Bowl.  However, the big start only resulted in greater disappointment in the second year as the Sun Devils endured a six-game losing streak.  They managed to right the ship against the carrion of the Pac-10, but then got stomped by rival Arizona to stay at home for the holidays.  Star quarterback Rudy Carpenter is gone and the replacements are none too appetizing, especially with the transfer out of Jack Elway.  The program looked to be getting an upgrade by acquiring Erickson after tossing Dirk Koetter, but his third season will go a long way toward determining whether regime chance was the wise choice in the long-term.

3.  Whether California ends its 51-year Rose Bowl drought. If there were any year to finally break through to the roses, this is it.  The Golden Bears return tailback Jahvid Best and quarterback Kevin Riley and an excellent secondary.  After a moderately stiff non-conference schedule featuring Maryland and Minnesota, the meat of the schedule arrives, as they face USC at home and Oregon on the road to start conference play.  A 5-0 start would put Cal in fantastic position to win the conference championship and, perhaps, contend for a bit more than that.  They might be more motivated to avoid having to play catch-up should they start in the hole in conference play.

4.  If Oregon can bring back 2001. Nevermind that Joey Harrington had the misfortune to be selected by Matt Millen in the draft. He engineered a fantastic season that saw the Ducks head to the Fiesta Bowl.  Since then, though, it has been all USC in the Pac 10.  Recently promoted head coach Chip Kelly hopes to change that.  If the Ducks can survive a trip to Berkeley, the Rose Bowl is there for the taking with USC coming to Eugene.  It is a possibility that grows brighter should the Ducks also survive matches with the cream of Le Petit Cinq, Boise State (on the smurf turf) and Utah (at Autzen).  Jeremiah Masoli leads the way for a team that has a number of question marks, particularly the offensive line and receivers, that need to be overcome.  Can the Ducks stamp their authority on the Pac 10?

5.  Whether Oregon State can have a fast start for once. The Beavers had a miserable start to the 2008 season, dropping a game to a mediocre Stanford squad in the opener then getting smacked by Penn State in the eastern time zone.  However, the Ducks began to right the ship in game number four with their second consecutive home upset of USC, a win that unwittingly put them in the driver’s seat for the remainder of the season.  Granted, this was not the driver’s seat of a Ferrari, but a Yugo.  The confidence was low that this team could actually do it, but then something funny happened: they started to string together a fantastic winning streak.  They reached 7-1 before their dreams of the Rose Bowl for the Beavers since 1964 were crushed in the Civil War.

The non-conference schedule is kinder this season, with the toughest challenge likely to be a visit from last season’s surprise Big East champion, Cincinnati.  So the Beavers will likely get off to a good start.  However, they have the misfortune of paying visits to all three of USC, Cal, and Oregon.  So it goes.  Mike Riley consistently puts together some very good teams, so this is unlikely to be the last time Oregon State is not rated highly at the beginning of the season.  Could they keep the momentum of a fast start going?

6.  Whether Stanford will go to its first bowl game since 2001. The pieces are coming together.  After the devastating Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris administrations, the program is finally headed in the right direction under Jim Harbaugh.  The Cardinal are breaking in a new quarterback in Andrew Lick, but the schedule is not too bad if they can withstand the growing pains.  They will probably need to win six of their first eight games, because the finishing kick is brutal: Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame.  Stanford is sort of still living off that USC win two years ago, so they need to tag another superior opponent if they are to be taken seriously as a program.

7.  How much UCLA improves and measures up against the Trojans. Rick Neuheisel promised the end of the USC monopoly in 2008.  If he is going to live up to his words, he is going to need to lead upward a team that was dreadful offensively in 2008.  Exhibit A: Getting smoked 59-0 by BYU, which is terrible no matter how good BYU was last season.  Exhibit B: Kevin Craft, who threw an absurd four pick-sixes interceptions returned for a touchdown against Arizona State, a mediocre team that made the Bruins look like Washington State.  Craft finished the year with 20 interceptions and has rightfully been demoted in favor of redshirt freshman Kevin Prince, so the offensive should run a bit smoother.  Can this team scrounge up enough wins to go bowling?  Can this team keep up with their cardinal-clad crosstown rivals in their November 28 meeting?

8.  Whether USC’s run at the top of the Pac 10 will come to an end. While there is plenty of positive talk about Oregon and California making a run at the crown, most of the talk is negative.  Namely, whether USC will fall off the perch.  That is only warranted, considering to be the man you have got to beat the man.  Nevermind that USC lost a boatload of talent to the NFL; they have a boatload of talent ready to step in.  The loss of wideout Ronald Johnson will be significant, but if someone can step up to catch some balls, all will be fine in Trojanland. But the main attraction, the main blood in the water, is at the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Matt Barkley has been deemed The Man at QB by Pete Carroll.  Can the Trojans’ pursuers take advantage of the potential growing pains?  Will someone outside of South Central keep them out of the BCS?  Will USC be deposed as king of the mountain in the Pac 10?

9.  How much Washington improves. After a 0-12 season, there is no direction to go but up.  Whether that upward movement is two wins, four wins, or (gasp!) a bowl game is a question of how high new coach Steve Sarkisian and returning quarterback Jake Locker can pull this program.  Wins really do not matter; this team just needs to be competitive in the games that matter, especially conference games, and start aiming for a bowl game in 2010.  A good measuring stick will be the Apple Cup game, one in which they lost to a team that was by most accounts even worse than the Huskies.

10.  Whether Washington State will bring up the rear in the Pac 10. The eleven losses shine much brighter than the two wins, the 60-point waxings defining the first season of the Paul Wulff administration.  Like their cross-state rivals, they cannot go down much further, but their recovery process could be more painful.  With no FCS teams on the schedule, there are no easy wins anywhere, meaning what was Washington’s fate in 2008 could be Washington State’s in 2009.  Can Wulff defy the naysayers and finish higher than last in conference?