Fourth and Dumb

Another week, another pick ‘em from your favorite band of intellectual miscreants.

Evan Nagler joins us as our guest this week. Evan is a Gainesville, FL native and former Brandeis student currently employed by the Census to make sure that the numerically insignificant Cham population in his hometown of Knoxville is not allowed to swing their votes in favor of Lyndon LaRouche in upcoming elections. Deeply knowledgeable about Jewish custom and lore, he uses such tactics as the Kabbalah to accurately pick winners each week. His system combines the number of ex-lovers Madonna has had and the exact current hair length of Britney Spears, along with a few other factors which he would prefer not to share.

It only took me 5 weeks to win a week this season. Truthfully, I’m a little too lazy to look back and see how long it took me last year, so we’ll just call this a “good thing” ™ and move along. There’s a Thursday game actually worth picking tonight, and we’ve got the inside scoop on who’s going to win. Assuming, of course, you understand that by “inside scoop” we really mean “stuff we’ve either painstakingly researched or just made up in order to make the deadline.”

Who’s that? Hans Blix? Why no, it’s week number 6!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 6’ »

After three weeks, the entirety of our pickers are within one game of each other. I don’t think I’ve seen this much parity since the 2008 ACC. Is that a good thing?

Last week’s guest picker, Craig Barker, took a couple gambles and kept the guest spot at a perfect .500 record.

This week’s guest is James Quintong. James is an editor and occasional writer for ESPN.com’s fantasy section and also was on the original staff at CNNSI.com (now SI.com). He was a longtime member of TRASH before moving to other side of the buzzer, and is currently part of the reigning TRASHionals champions. In short, he’s everything that the good chunks of the blogosphere and quizbowl world apparently dislike. Oh yeah, he helped form Northwestern’s quizbowl team back in the mid-’90s, right around the time the Wildcats went to the Rose Bowl, and also graduated the same year as current head coach Pat Fitzgerald (but isn’t sure if that makes feel old or young).

Want to join us as a guest? Leave a comment with an email address, and we’ll get in touch.

On to week 4!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 4’ »

Congrats to DanGr, who managed to become the first FnD writer to have a winning record for the week. It only took two weeks, folks!

Also – a quick plug here for the Fourth and Dumb College Pick ‘Em Challenge on ESPN.com. Some of you have joined but neglected to submit picks for a week for two. (I’m looking at YOU, Dan Greenstein.)

This week’s guest picker is Craig Barker. Craig is a member of the University of Michigan quiz bowl team in the previous century, longtime member of the Mike Keenan Employment Agency trash team, and a man currently enjoying his quiz bowl retirement. A Michigan football fan for so long he can still vividly remember listening to Mike Gilette’s field goal to beat Iowa in 1985, he has resigned himself to the fact that he will never be the most famous member of his collegiate graduating class. (Curse you Tom Brady, you handsome devil.) When not posting not-quite-as-witty-as-he-thinks rejoinders on various points on the Internet, he can be found blogging about Michigan athletics (including the Marching Band) at The Hoover Street Rag.

Based on our records after two weeks, I’m not sure we can do much worse. Here’s to hoping the season improves. Moving on!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 3’ »

And so begins the 2009 season. Let’s recap what happened last year, shall we?

After falling back by as many as 10 games to Fred, our beloved Chris overcame a 2-5 first week of bowl season, and correctly picked 5 upsets during the last week of bowl season, to defeat Fred by one game for the yearly standings.

Final results:
Chris 83-56
Fred 82-57
DanGo 77-62
DanGr 76-63

But now it is time to erase the slate and begin anew, and so we shall. As I mentioned before, we’re going to add a rotating guest spot this year. Our first guest is Eric Douglass. Eric is a two time graduate of the University of South Carolina and lifelong Gamecock fan. Quizbowl is his way of escaping the fact that he is a lifelong Gamecock fan.

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 1’ »

1.  Whether Arizona will take the next step under Mike Stoops. It took five years, but the Wildcats finally broke through and ended the Pac-10’s longest bowl drought.  With that Stoops earned some well-earned job security…for now.  His sixth season is a time of change, as the face of the program for the past four years, quarterback Willie Tuitama, has exhausted his eligibility.  While the program is in no danger of descending into the chaos of the reign of John Mackovic (who is currently the coach of the U.S. national football team), it may be inevitable that they will struggle to earn a bowl berth in 2009.  For the good of the program, it may just be a hiccup on the way to the program’s first ever Rose Bowl in the next few years.

2.  Which Arizona State team will return in 2009: 2007 or 2008. Dennis Erickson’s first season with Sun Devils was a resounding success, as the vagabond coach parlayed an 8-0 start into a berth in the Holiday Bowl.  However, the big start only resulted in greater disappointment in the second year as the Sun Devils endured a six-game losing streak.  They managed to right the ship against the carrion of the Pac-10, but then got stomped by rival Arizona to stay at home for the holidays.  Star quarterback Rudy Carpenter is gone and the replacements are none too appetizing, especially with the transfer out of Jack Elway.  The program looked to be getting an upgrade by acquiring Erickson after tossing Dirk Koetter, but his third season will go a long way toward determining whether regime chance was the wise choice in the long-term.

3.  Whether California ends its 51-year Rose Bowl drought. If there were any year to finally break through to the roses, this is it.  The Golden Bears return tailback Jahvid Best and quarterback Kevin Riley and an excellent secondary.  After a moderately stiff non-conference schedule featuring Maryland and Minnesota, the meat of the schedule arrives, as they face USC at home and Oregon on the road to start conference play.  A 5-0 start would put Cal in fantastic position to win the conference championship and, perhaps, contend for a bit more than that.  They might be more motivated to avoid having to play catch-up should they start in the hole in conference play.

4.  If Oregon can bring back 2001. Nevermind that Joey Harrington had the misfortune to be selected by Matt Millen in the draft. He engineered a fantastic season that saw the Ducks head to the Fiesta Bowl.  Since then, though, it has been all USC in the Pac 10.  Recently promoted head coach Chip Kelly hopes to change that.  If the Ducks can survive a trip to Berkeley, the Rose Bowl is there for the taking with USC coming to Eugene.  It is a possibility that grows brighter should the Ducks also survive matches with the cream of Le Petit Cinq, Boise State (on the smurf turf) and Utah (at Autzen).  Jeremiah Masoli leads the way for a team that has a number of question marks, particularly the offensive line and receivers, that need to be overcome.  Can the Ducks stamp their authority on the Pac 10?

5.  Whether Oregon State can have a fast start for once. The Beavers had a miserable start to the 2008 season, dropping a game to a mediocre Stanford squad in the opener then getting smacked by Penn State in the eastern time zone.  However, the Ducks began to right the ship in game number four with their second consecutive home upset of USC, a win that unwittingly put them in the driver’s seat for the remainder of the season.  Granted, this was not the driver’s seat of a Ferrari, but a Yugo.  The confidence was low that this team could actually do it, but then something funny happened: they started to string together a fantastic winning streak.  They reached 7-1 before their dreams of the Rose Bowl for the Beavers since 1964 were crushed in the Civil War.

The non-conference schedule is kinder this season, with the toughest challenge likely to be a visit from last season’s surprise Big East champion, Cincinnati.  So the Beavers will likely get off to a good start.  However, they have the misfortune of paying visits to all three of USC, Cal, and Oregon.  So it goes.  Mike Riley consistently puts together some very good teams, so this is unlikely to be the last time Oregon State is not rated highly at the beginning of the season.  Could they keep the momentum of a fast start going?

6.  Whether Stanford will go to its first bowl game since 2001. The pieces are coming together.  After the devastating Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris administrations, the program is finally headed in the right direction under Jim Harbaugh.  The Cardinal are breaking in a new quarterback in Andrew Lick, but the schedule is not too bad if they can withstand the growing pains.  They will probably need to win six of their first eight games, because the finishing kick is brutal: Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame.  Stanford is sort of still living off that USC win two years ago, so they need to tag another superior opponent if they are to be taken seriously as a program.

7.  How much UCLA improves and measures up against the Trojans. Rick Neuheisel promised the end of the USC monopoly in 2008.  If he is going to live up to his words, he is going to need to lead upward a team that was dreadful offensively in 2008.  Exhibit A: Getting smoked 59-0 by BYU, which is terrible no matter how good BYU was last season.  Exhibit B: Kevin Craft, who threw an absurd four pick-sixes interceptions returned for a touchdown against Arizona State, a mediocre team that made the Bruins look like Washington State.  Craft finished the year with 20 interceptions and has rightfully been demoted in favor of redshirt freshman Kevin Prince, so the offensive should run a bit smoother.  Can this team scrounge up enough wins to go bowling?  Can this team keep up with their cardinal-clad crosstown rivals in their November 28 meeting?

8.  Whether USC’s run at the top of the Pac 10 will come to an end. While there is plenty of positive talk about Oregon and California making a run at the crown, most of the talk is negative.  Namely, whether USC will fall off the perch.  That is only warranted, considering to be the man you have got to beat the man.  Nevermind that USC lost a boatload of talent to the NFL; they have a boatload of talent ready to step in.  The loss of wideout Ronald Johnson will be significant, but if someone can step up to catch some balls, all will be fine in Trojanland. But the main attraction, the main blood in the water, is at the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Matt Barkley has been deemed The Man at QB by Pete Carroll.  Can the Trojans’ pursuers take advantage of the potential growing pains?  Will someone outside of South Central keep them out of the BCS?  Will USC be deposed as king of the mountain in the Pac 10?

9.  How much Washington improves. After a 0-12 season, there is no direction to go but up.  Whether that upward movement is two wins, four wins, or (gasp!) a bowl game is a question of how high new coach Steve Sarkisian and returning quarterback Jake Locker can pull this program.  Wins really do not matter; this team just needs to be competitive in the games that matter, especially conference games, and start aiming for a bowl game in 2010.  A good measuring stick will be the Apple Cup game, one in which they lost to a team that was by most accounts even worse than the Huskies.

10.  Whether Washington State will bring up the rear in the Pac 10. The eleven losses shine much brighter than the two wins, the 60-point waxings defining the first season of the Paul Wulff administration.  Like their cross-state rivals, they cannot go down much further, but their recovery process could be more painful.  With no FCS teams on the schedule, there are no easy wins anywhere, meaning what was Washington’s fate in 2008 could be Washington State’s in 2009.  Can Wulff defy the naysayers and finish higher than last in conference?

Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

And no, I am not talking about the Wildcat formation.  I am talking about the newfangled trend of teams designating a coach in waiting to take over a program once the current coach rides off into the sunset or moves upstairs.  While the concept of a succession plan has been ever present, it is only in the past two years that sitting in the white chair has become trendy.

Prior to three weeks ago, the purpose of a succession plan was to ensure a smooth transition once the current head coach retired from coaching.  Keeping the same system going and most of the same staff in place is very important when it comes to recruiting, as recruits may jump ship if the new guy intends to bring in a system with which they disagree.  The coaching succession is enacted in either of two ways:

- The current coach decides to retire in x years.  This is what happened a year ago when Joe TIller decided to retire at Purdue.  He appointed as his coach-designate Danny Hope, who was the head coach at Eastern Kentucky University.  The plan was similar to one Purdue experienced a few years earlier when Southern Illinois basketball coach Matt Painter joined Gene Keady’s staff the year before Keady retired.

A similar situation occurred at the University of Wisconsin, where Bret Bielema was hired as Barry Alvarez’s defensive coordinator a year before Alvarez retired from coaching in 2005.  Incidentally, Alverez had become the athletic director shortly beforehand and would leave behind his headset to take on the AD duty full time.

Another example of this phenonmenon was enacted last year by the Seattle Seahawks.  Mike Holmgren will be retiring after the 2008 NFL season.  He will be replaced by Jim L. Mora, a succession that is now in question due to rumors on Wikipedia that he will replace Tyrone Willingham at the University of Washington.

- The current coach decides to retire at an indeterminate time in the future.  This is the situation at Florida State, where Jimbo Fisher was hired as offensive coordinator and will succeed Bobby Bowden once he designs to call it quits in Tallahassee, whenever he decides to stop chasing Joe Paterno.

A similar situation occurred at Kentucky.  However, instead of hiring someone from the outside, RIch Brooks designated the current offensive coordinator Joker Phillips to be his successor at the unknown date in the future he retires.

This situation also occured in the NBA several years ago when Don Nelson of the Dallas Mavericks appointed Avery Johnson as his successor.  Bet you forgot that one, didn’t you?  After all, Nelson unretired and is now coaching the Golden State Warriors and Avery Johnson is a sporadic analyst on ESPN.

A much more recent trend features an explication of the need for continuity, but has the implication that the athletic department is trying to keep other programs’ grubby paws off of their hot assistant.  These plans almost always have an indefinite enactment date and a shiny veneer of insincerity.  The first example of such a plan occurred at the University of Texas.  Once observations showed that defensive coordinator Will Muschamp would be a hot commodity on the coaching carousel, the Longhorns decided to lock him up and lock him down by designating him as Mack Brown’s successor.  To realize the absurdity and boldness of this move, know that Mack Brown’s contract runs through 2016, and that everyone admits it could be a long time before Brown steps down and Muschamp ascends to the throne.

A similar situation occured at Oregon this week, but with a more complex setup.  The Ducks made offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has downtrodden programs drooling, the head coach designate for whenever Mike Bellotti decides to turn in his headset.  But wait.  There’s more!  Bellotti, for his part, is now the athletic director designate for when current AD Pat Kilkenny retires.  However, it will be Bellotti’s decision as to when he ascends to the front office.  To add another layer of intrigue, the deal was brokered by outgoing University of Oregon president Dave Frohnmayer.

Oregon’s complicated plan also solves the problem of athletic director continuity, a lesson that should not be lost on programs that bungle their coach hiring decisions.  Come on down, athletic director Daryl Gross of Syracuse University!  Your head is next on the chopping block!

Hey folks, it’s Rivalry Week!

Chris and Fred tied again, and Borglum is now trying to work his way out of the basement.

I dropped the ball a little this week too, but I can assure you that all picks were in prior to the Pitt-WVU kickoff I totally overlooked today.

And now…

COMMEN-TARY *clap clap clapclapclap*

Iron Bowl: Auburn (+14.5) at #1 Alabama, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: Bama’s front four won’t allow Auburn to run consistently, and we’ve all seen that Kodi Burns can’t win a big game with his arm. Bama snaps its string of Iron Bowl losses, and we all hope that no one gets shot afterward.

Hardee’s Trophy: South Carolina (+1) at Clemson, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Stephen Garcia will solidify his hold on the QB job for the bowl game, and Jasper Brinkley and SC’s nasty defense will stop the great two-headed running back of Clemson.
DanGr: After the midseason crash that saw Tommy Bowden bite the dust, the Tigers are quietly on a three-game winning streak. This one is for an invitation to a bowl game and to rip the interim tag off of Dabo Swinney’s title. For that, C.J. “100%” Spiller and Clemson will play their best game of the year and sock it to the Cocks.

Bedlam Series: #3 Oklahoma (-7) at #12 Oklahoma State, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGo: Oklahoma’s throttling of Texas Tech in Norman was a shock to many who had written off the Sooners. The trip to Stillwater won’t be anything close to hospitable, but the Cowboys have been the odd man out in the game of musical chairs that is the Big 12 South. It will be exciting, but the Sooners will persevere.
DanGr: Oklahoma has had a clunker in the regular season (plus championship game) every year since the championship season. Oklahoma State has been forgotten and wants to make a statement. The Cowboys will pull the upset and send Texas Tech to KC for some barbequed Tiger.

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: #22 Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #11 Georgia, Saturday 12:00pm CBS
DanGo: After falling far behind the Gators in the SEC East, the Dawgs have silently played their way to a 9-2 record, losing only to the two better teams in the SEC: Florida and Bama. Georgia Tech is going to have to rely on Virginia to hand them their ACC Coastal title, but GT’s losses to VT, UVa and UNC raise some questions about how effective the “vaunted” triple-option really is. The Dawgs pull it out in the 2nd half.
DanGr: This is not the year Uga fans had hoped for, but they at least they can wash down the disappointment with another win over the Yellow Jackets. Not so fast, my friend. Paul Johnson makes another statement with his totally awesome triple option with flexbone filling as his team snaps their seven game losing streak to the Bulldogs.
[This really was DanGr, and not Lee Corso, writing this. - Ed.]

Commonwealth Cup: Virginia (+8) at Virginia Tech, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This one’s pretty simple. The Hokies need to win to go to Tampa next weekend. The Wahoos need to win to become bowl-eligible, and possibly for Al Groh to keep his job. We’re not sure what color Al Groh’s chair is, but I hear Phil Fulmer is looking for employment… Regardless, The Hokies’ defense will have no trouble with a team that could only put up 3 points against Clemson, and the Hokies can book their tickets to Tampa.

Civil War: #23 Oregon (+3) at #17 Oregon State, Saturday 7:00pm Versus
Chris: ESPN is saying that Jacquizzzzz Rogers won’t play, and his brother isn’t as fast. Ducks will break out some hideous new throbbing, electric-neon-yellow unis and find a way to win.
DanGr: The Beavers feel like a team of destiny, one that is destined to win its local Civil War. They are playing well in all phases of the game. Their defense will be the difference against the Sun Bowl-bound Ducks.

Backyard Brawl: #25 Pittsburgh (+3) at West Virginia, Friday 12:00pm No TV
DanGo: West Virginia can’t really drop two straight to The Mustache, can they?

Dan Greenstein wins the week, going an impressive 6-1 to clear DanGo by a full game.

#1 Texas (-4.0) at #7 Texas Tech, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Fred: Madden scoring in this game, folks. I’m looking forward to it, if only so I can have a passing-induced seizure that makes Porygon look kid friendly.
DanGr: This is the biggest test the Longhorns will face in 2008. The game will come down to how well the defenses can stop the offenses. Texas has the better defense, so they will prevail in a shootout that comes down to the last five minutes.

#24 Oregon (+2.5) at California, Saturday 3:30pm ABC
Fred: Did you know that Donald Duck is one of the mascots of the Ducks, and Disney is signed on with this? The More You Know (NBC tone).
DanGr: The Golden Bears will grab momentum and end Oregon’s conference hopes before a sharp impulse next week at USC ends Cal’s conference hopes. It will be close, but Cal will lay better at home than Oregon will play on the road.

#8 Florida (-6.5) at #6 Georgia, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: The big story here is going to be the Gator pass rush and run defense; the former will keep Stafford off balance, so the question is whether the latter can slow Moreno. I think they can, and I think that Demps and Rainey will break off some long ones in the second half to lead the Gators to a comfortable win. But yeah, like you’d expect me to say anything else.
DanGr: It will be a shootout between the teams that hung half a hundred on LSU. Georgia will come closest to repeating that feat as the Matt Stafford-A.J. Green connection makes the difference.

Miami (FL) (+2.5) at Virginia, Saturday 12:00pm Raycom Sports
DanGo: I don’t know what’s going on in Charlottesville, but somehow these guys have moved themselves to the top of the Gordian Knot that is the ACC Coastal Division. The Wahoos are 4-1 at home this year, and I don’t see any reason for that to change.
Fred: At some point Virginia has to be terrible like they’re supposed to be.
Right? Right?

#16 Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
DanGo: Another ranked ACC team is the underdog versus an unranked conference foe. The ‘Noles are probably better than everyone gives them credit for; their defense played well against Virginia Tech last week, especially against the run, and the Yellow Jackets are averaging only about 115 passing yards per game. Look for the Florida sweep this week with a win in Atlanta.

Pittsburgh (+5) at Notre Dame, Saturday 2:30 NBC
Chris: No analysis: I just hate the Domers.
Fred: This is more of a “holy hell Pitt’s a mess” pick than a “yeaaaaaaaaaaah Notre Dame” pick.

Northwestern (+7.5) at Minnesota, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
We’re all just taking a blind pick at this one; there’s really not a lot of positive things worth commenting about for either team.

Going into week four of the season, we’re left with nine teams undefeated out of the smaller conferences. Next week, we’re guaranteed to have it shortened to at least just eight teams with Air Force visiting Utah. Let’s take a look at the nine’s prospective chances this weekend.

East Carolina, 3-0

Two impressive wins to open the season is quickly followed by a tough road game against Tulane.

Next game: @ North Carolina State. NC State has looked pretty inept offensively against their real competition, though Clemson and South Carolina have solid defenses. If East Carolina can shut down the Wolf Pack, they’ll look more like a legitimate team than they already do. I think they’ll survive this weekend.

Tulsa, 2-0

The other Conference USA team on this list, Tulsa is something of a sleeper in this list of sleepers – they have talent and a schedule that should not be too challenging. They shouldn’t have too many issues until late October comes.

Next game: New Mexico. NM is pretty harmless, so this shouldn’t be an issue for the Golden Hurricanes.

Ball State, 3-0

The lone representative of the MAC, Ball State is in the midst of changing from a long-time doormat to a conference contender. Jason Whitlock predicted them to go undefeated this year, and it could happen with sufficient luck. The game at Indiana, along with closing the season out against Miami of Ohio, Central and Western Michigan won’t make this easy, though.

Next game: @ Indiana. This should be a pretty major challenge – it’s a rivalry road game, which is rarely easy. The level of competition has not been very tough so far this year, so the Cardinals might not be properly prepared, but I still give them the edge over a mediocre Indiana team.

Air Force, 3-0

An easy schedule is the reason Air Force is here. They struggled on the road against Houston, and Houston’s not particularly good.

Next game: Utah. This is a Buster elimination game, and I will be shocked if Air Force is the one left standing.

TCU, 3-0

Thanks to Utah and BYU’s big wins, it’s expected that TCU is overlooked here. Don’t sleep on the Horned Frogs; for starters, that sounds very uncomfortable, and they could be the best team in the Mountain West. Keep an eye on them

Next game: @ SMU. No reason this should be a problem for TCU.

Utah, 3-0

After getting a big road win at Michigan, Utah has dismantled UNLV and Utah State. There’s a lot of talent on this team, and they’re a favorite of mine to flirt with the BCS.

Next game: @ Air Force. If you can win at Michigan – even a depleted Michigan – you can win at Air Force. They’ll go to 4-0.

BYU, 3-0

Well, that’s one way to make a statement. UCLA, who beat Tennessee (thanks in no small part to a fair share of luck), losing by 59 points in a shut out is pretty shameful for the Bruins, but a definite point of pride for the Cougars. No reason this should stop this weekend.

Next game: Wyoming. This should be a fairly easy win for the Cougars.

Troy, 2-0

Our token Sun Belt team! Not much to say here – wins against Middle Tennessee State and Alcorn State is not much to be proud of. Staying on this list due to a delayed game against LSU does nothing to help the cause.

Next game: @ Ohio State. OSU didn’t look very good against USC, but Troy is nothing like their west coast Trojan brethren. Ohio State should win going away, reducing this list by one more team.

Boise State, 2-0

Competing for the role as this year’s Boise State is… Boise State! A good win against Bowling Green precedes a huge match up this week.

Next game: @ Oregon. If I was a betting man, I’d place money on the Ducks. Boise State is a legit team, though, and a win wouldn’t be surprising. Still, I favor Oregon in a close one.

So, my official prediction is that this watch list will be reduced to six teams after tomorrow’s games are done.