Fourth and Dumb

So, it’s late, and I have to be up in about 5 hours, so here’s the long and short of it.

Chris kicked ass again, the rest of us are beginning to fall behind.

The pressure to atone for last week’s guest picks falls on the shoulders of Mike Dame. Mike, once upon a time, was Chris’ freshman roommate in college (and somehow lived to tell the tale). A former AP poll and Heisman voter, Mike is also a former employee of Virginia Tech. His most memorable moment as a sportswriter, in his own words:

When Norm Sloan pointed at me in a press conference in October 1989 after I reported in The Independent Florida Alligator that his firing was imminent. “It’s like throwing chum in the water, and you frenzy like a bunch of sharks!” Sloan famously said of the media. “I’m not going anywhere!” Two days later, UF announced Sloan’s “resignation.” (God rest his soul, because I loved Norm Sloan.)

And with that, we move on to Week 5.

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 5’ »

And so begins the 2009 season. Let’s recap what happened last year, shall we?

After falling back by as many as 10 games to Fred, our beloved Chris overcame a 2-5 first week of bowl season, and correctly picked 5 upsets during the last week of bowl season, to defeat Fred by one game for the yearly standings.

Final results:
Chris 83-56
Fred 82-57
DanGo 77-62
DanGr 76-63

But now it is time to erase the slate and begin anew, and so we shall. As I mentioned before, we’re going to add a rotating guest spot this year. Our first guest is Eric Douglass. Eric is a two time graduate of the University of South Carolina and lifelong Gamecock fan. Quizbowl is his way of escaping the fact that he is a lifelong Gamecock fan.

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 1’ »

So, a college football blog should probably provide some attention to the sport’s biggest game. As an unabashed Gator, it’s hard for me to even get close to objective, but I am aware how razor thin the Gators’ margin was in that game. How different might the result have been had Oklahoma gotten seven on either of its two trips inside teh Gator five yard line in the first half? What if Ahmad Black doesn’t rip that ball away from Manuel Iglesias?

Of course, championships are won by making those plays, and Oklahoma didn’t make them. Add today’s announcement that Tebow will return for his senior season, and you’ve got a lot of happy Gators out there.

I figure that Harvin and Spikes are gone. Both should be first round picks, unlike Timmy, and both now have two rings. There’s no reason for them to risk injury and leave money on the table. I want them to go off and have big careers (please, Ahura Mazda, steer Percy to the Bucs).

Still, as is perenially the case, there are a bunch of teams with beefs, the two most legitimate of which are, in order, Utah’s and USC’s. Texas’s argument lost some of its strength because of the closeness of its win against Ohio State (who, fairly or unfairly, is now considered BCS dogmeat forever until it can blow away a Southern team) and by the poor performance of the Big 12 in the bowls. Utah, however, beat Bama more handily than UF did and went undefeated. Still, few folks not wearing magic underwear would seriously argue that Utah would’ve gone 13-0 in the SEC. USC, however, plays in a big-time conference (well, sort of) which shone in the post season, going 5-0. And then they laid a big whipping on Penn State, though I suspect that the fact that they let the Nittanies kind of hang around in the second half doesn’t help their cause too much, nor does the fact that right now no one expects the Big Ten to be able to win BCS games against anybody. As much as I respect what Utah did, the game I’d sure like to see is UF-USC. These two programs have to hook up sometime soon, and if they can do so in the BCS CG as undefeated teams next year, it will be the biggest college football game of the BCS era, and maybe ever. If Mark Sanchez stays, we might just get to see it; well, as long as USC can get by the ferocious Beavers and UF can get by its visit to Starkville, where they’ll not only meet up with former OC Dan Mullen, who might have some ideas how to slow the offense he ran, and where they’ll have to face their Mississipi Curse, which somehow for twenty years has seen them play poorly against teams from that state.

Now to find something to do for the next nine months . . . better go to Rivals to check out the recruits . . .

In earlier columns, I announced the matchups for this year’s hypothetical (as opposed to mythical) national championship tournament for the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision and put forth my ideas for reforming the bowl system.  One set of details I left out of my bowl reform piece was how the national champion would be determined.  To wit, I did not mention a BCS National Championship Game.  Chris suggested that the game would exist, as the last game on New Year’s Day, but that was not my intention.  However, neither was it not my intention to necessarily exclude it.  In addition, I mentioned a loosening of conference bowl tie-ins, with the caveat that historical tie-ins like the Rose Bowl’s Big Ten-Pac 10 lineup would remain in place.

Based on my observations throughout this year’s bowl season, I decided to explore the idea of a Plus One.  For the uninitiated, the Plus One is a system where the bowls are held as normal, then a separate championship game is held between the two highest rated teams about a week after the conclusion of the bowl season.

For the purposes of this framework, lets have five BCS bowls exclusive of the BCS National Championship Game.  Keep the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange Bowls in the mix, and return the Cotton Bowl to the top tier of bowls after 15 years as a second class bowl.  Now is a good a time as any with the game set to move to Jerry World next year.  For the bowl tie-ins, have the Big Ten and Pac 10 meet as usual in the Rose Bowl, the SEC host the Sugar Bowl, the ACC host the Orange Bowl, and the Big 12 host the Cotton Bowl.  For the Fiesta Bowl, have the automatic at-large selection from the lesser conferences host the game; otherwise, if there is no qualifier from Les Petit Cinq, the Big East is the host conference.  Under this system, the 2009 matchups would have been as follows:

Rose Bowl: Penn State v. USC

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State v. Utah

Cotton Bowl: Alabama v. Oklahoma

Sugar Bowl: Texas v. Florida

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech

If you have been following this bowl season carefully, then you realize that something is wrong with these matchups.  Yes, the matchups have been put together in such a way that we effectively have national semifinals in the Sugar Bowl and Cotton Bowl, based on the BCS standings and using the pre-existing bowl tie-ins as best as can be done.  That will be the natural inclination of the powers that be.  But are the four best teams in the country the four teams in those two games?  What about USC?  There are many people who would have put the Trojans in the top four, even before their smackdown of Penn State in the real Rose Bowl.  What about Utah?  The Utes were the only team in the BCS bowls that came in undefeated.  After we saw how good they were in taking care of Alabama, would anyone outside of Columbus pick against them in this Fiesta Bowl matchup?  Even before their romp of Alabama, they would not have been a significant underdog against the Buckeyes.

There are then four (0r three, if you begrudge Texas for not covering the spread against Ohio State) worthy teams in play for two spots in the National Championship Game.  We are back in the same situation we were in December 7, except we have one more period of data to work with.  While the margin of error is larger under the Plus One compared to the current BCS, it still comes down to chance as to whether this system will work well.  When there are four teams that are clearly superior to the rest, and those four teams are matched up in two bowls, the system is guaranteed to work well.  However, when that does not happen, there is a chance that a very deserving team will be excluded from the national championship picture.  You cannot have both the full tradition and a non-mythical national champion.  The Plus One is not going to change that.

Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot.

Ole Miss didn’t just beat Texas Tech, they handled them on both sides of the ball. This is the same TT offense that scored a ton of points on Texas and got over 30 on Oklahoma, but the Rebels got tons of pressure on Harrell and gouged them with the run game. Does this tell us that Florida will be able to run consistently on Oklahoma and get pressure on Bradford with just the front four, allowing LBs and DBs to stay in coverage?

But wait–what about Utah dominating Bama? The Utes got seven sacks on JP Wilson and locked down Glen Coffee in ways that the Gators clearly couldn’t.

Maybe none of this tells us too much. I know I was personally annoyed at the ass-kissing that Brent Musburger and my wife’s favorite sportscaster, Kirk Herbstreit, laid on the Trojans, continually suggesting that USC had gotten screwed and would frighten either Oklahoma or UF. Sure, it sucks that USC lost the one-loss beauty pageant, but their loss was indeed to Oregon State, a team that got whipped by Oregon and also lost to Utah, who is most obviously the team that has gotten screwed this year. And now we hear a lot about how the Pac 10 went undefeated in the bowls, but look at the opponents: OSU beat Pitt in the snorefest of all snorefests, Oregon won a very entertaining game over Okie State, though after TT’s loss that may not look quite as impressive, Arizona beat an overrated BYU, Cal beat a lackluster Miami team, and USC earned the honor of laying the traditional holiday ass-whupping on the Big 10 champ. Big deal.

Chris Borglum, ladies and gentlemen. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

He is…dare I say it…en fuego.

Commentary and analysis after the jump. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 3’ »

Congrats to DanGr, who picked his way to another win. Way to come on strong late in the season.

There’s only one thing better than Rivalry Week, and that’s Championship Week.

Fred’s gone MIA all of a sudden, so we’re picking against the chalk on his behalf. (I FELL ASLEEP – Fred)

ACC Championship: #17 Boston College (-1) vs. #25 Virginia Tech (Tampa, FL) Saturday 1:00pm ABC
DanGr: This is not what the ACC had in mind when it poached the Big East so they could get their hands on some championship game $$$. Both teams have very good defenses, so it will be the offenses that decide this one. Specifically, the pass offenses. Both defenses are going to stymie the run, so it will come down to who has the better quarterback. Dominique Davis > (Tyrod Taylor OR Sean Glennon) BC to the OB via a low scoring game.
Fred: If I wasn’t lazy, I’d post that picture of a half-empty stadium hosting last year’s ACC Championship game, accompanied by an uninspiring score. I am lazy, though. This should be the closest game of the weekend.

Big 12 Championship: #20 Missouri (+16.5) vs. #2 Oklahoma (Kansas City, MO), Saturday 8:00pm ABC
DanGo: I think it’s pretty much a consensus; especially after their poor showing against Kansas in the Border War last week, there’s no way Missouri’s defense can stop Sam Bradford for 60 minutes. Look for Oklahoma to pull away late.

Conference USA Championship: East Carolina (+12) at Tulsa, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGr: Surprisingly, this game will not be a shootout. ECU will make sure of that with their decent defense. But ultimately, Tulsa will pull away at the end to earn a trip to Memphis.

MAC Championship: #12 Ball State (-14.5) vs. Buffalo (Detroit, MI), Friday 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Turner Gill leads his team to the big upset and then gets a better job in a bigger conference (I hope).
DanGr: Do you get the feeling that the Cardinals are not going to be fully motivated at Ford Field? Buffalo will take advantage as they play lights out and shoot the bird all throughout the first half. But the skill differential is quite large and the Bulls did not fare well against anyone with a pulse. BSU will blow UB off the field in the second half to get to 13-0.

SEC Championship: #1 Alabama (+9.5) vs. #4 Florida (Atlanta, GA), Saturday 4:00pm CBS
DanGo: I’ve decided to try to be somewhat scientific in this pick. These are two talented teams, but Florida has the larger margin of victory over their six common conference opponents: 177-79. Florida only had two games where they outscored their opponent by less than 30 points – Tennessee and the loss to Ole Miss. Alabama only had 2 wins of more than 11 points, at Tennessee and at Arkansas. Look for the Florida D to stymie John Parker Wilson and for Tebow to get a chance to stretch his legs.
DanGr: The Crimson Tide defense and Gator offense will get their biggest tests of the year against each other. What about the Bama offense against the Florida defense? If the Tide defense can keep Florida under 30 points and keep them off the field, the offense should be able to do enough to get the victory late in the fourth quarter with a drawn out drive to end the game.

Navy (-11) vs. Army (Philadelphia, PA), Saturday 12:00pm CBS
Chris: Navy, by three samoans.
DanGr: If I pick against Navy again, my fiancee is sleeping on the couch. [Not really. -Ed.]

Arkansas State (+11) at Troy, Saturday 7:00pm ESPN360
DanGr: Troy is coming off a demolition of Louisiana Lafayette. The Trojans will continue their strong run in the de facto Sun Belt championship game.

Hey folks, it’s Rivalry Week!

Chris and Fred tied again, and Borglum is now trying to work his way out of the basement.

I dropped the ball a little this week too, but I can assure you that all picks were in prior to the Pitt-WVU kickoff I totally overlooked today.

And now…

COMMEN-TARY *clap clap clapclapclap*

Iron Bowl: Auburn (+14.5) at #1 Alabama, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: Bama’s front four won’t allow Auburn to run consistently, and we’ve all seen that Kodi Burns can’t win a big game with his arm. Bama snaps its string of Iron Bowl losses, and we all hope that no one gets shot afterward.

Hardee’s Trophy: South Carolina (+1) at Clemson, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Stephen Garcia will solidify his hold on the QB job for the bowl game, and Jasper Brinkley and SC’s nasty defense will stop the great two-headed running back of Clemson.
DanGr: After the midseason crash that saw Tommy Bowden bite the dust, the Tigers are quietly on a three-game winning streak. This one is for an invitation to a bowl game and to rip the interim tag off of Dabo Swinney’s title. For that, C.J. “100%” Spiller and Clemson will play their best game of the year and sock it to the Cocks.

Bedlam Series: #3 Oklahoma (-7) at #12 Oklahoma State, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGo: Oklahoma’s throttling of Texas Tech in Norman was a shock to many who had written off the Sooners. The trip to Stillwater won’t be anything close to hospitable, but the Cowboys have been the odd man out in the game of musical chairs that is the Big 12 South. It will be exciting, but the Sooners will persevere.
DanGr: Oklahoma has had a clunker in the regular season (plus championship game) every year since the championship season. Oklahoma State has been forgotten and wants to make a statement. The Cowboys will pull the upset and send Texas Tech to KC for some barbequed Tiger.

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: #22 Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #11 Georgia, Saturday 12:00pm CBS
DanGo: After falling far behind the Gators in the SEC East, the Dawgs have silently played their way to a 9-2 record, losing only to the two better teams in the SEC: Florida and Bama. Georgia Tech is going to have to rely on Virginia to hand them their ACC Coastal title, but GT’s losses to VT, UVa and UNC raise some questions about how effective the “vaunted” triple-option really is. The Dawgs pull it out in the 2nd half.
DanGr: This is not the year Uga fans had hoped for, but they at least they can wash down the disappointment with another win over the Yellow Jackets. Not so fast, my friend. Paul Johnson makes another statement with his totally awesome triple option with flexbone filling as his team snaps their seven game losing streak to the Bulldogs.
[This really was DanGr, and not Lee Corso, writing this. - Ed.]

Commonwealth Cup: Virginia (+8) at Virginia Tech, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This one’s pretty simple. The Hokies need to win to go to Tampa next weekend. The Wahoos need to win to become bowl-eligible, and possibly for Al Groh to keep his job. We’re not sure what color Al Groh’s chair is, but I hear Phil Fulmer is looking for employment… Regardless, The Hokies’ defense will have no trouble with a team that could only put up 3 points against Clemson, and the Hokies can book their tickets to Tampa.

Civil War: #23 Oregon (+3) at #17 Oregon State, Saturday 7:00pm Versus
Chris: ESPN is saying that Jacquizzzzz Rogers won’t play, and his brother isn’t as fast. Ducks will break out some hideous new throbbing, electric-neon-yellow unis and find a way to win.
DanGr: The Beavers feel like a team of destiny, one that is destined to win its local Civil War. They are playing well in all phases of the game. Their defense will be the difference against the Sun Bowl-bound Ducks.

Backyard Brawl: #25 Pittsburgh (+3) at West Virginia, Friday 12:00pm No TV
DanGo: West Virginia can’t really drop two straight to The Mustache, can they?

Last week was a rough week for all of us, but Chris again proves victorious.

In the meantime, he didn’t submit his picks for this week, so we’re picking (against the chalk) for him!

Chris finally got his picks in…silly technical difficulties.

Hey look, Chris won the week! Picking against the chalk and conventional wisdom proved fruitful, bringing him within four games of .500 for the season.

There’s a great slate of matchups this week; there will be contenders eliminated after this week. Hopefully none of them will have to face Nitro in the Joust.

Clemson (+2.5) at #21 Wake Forest, Thursday 7:30pm ESPN
Chris: Wake Forest will beat Clemson because Clemson is coached by Tommy Bowden, who may distracted by how good his players look in their tight pants.

#4 LSU (+6) at #11 Florida, Sat 8:00pm CBS
Chris: Florida will slip by LSU by single digits on the strength of some long runs by Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and strong linebacker play which will limit LSU’s run game (a little) and force them to try to win through the air, not their strong suit this year.
DanGr: The Gator loss to Ole Miss revealed some cracks in the foundation. The Tigers will turn those cracks into breaches behind the steady play of newfound prime quarterback Jarrett Lee. Granted, LSU is not without flaws, which Florida will use to keep this close until the end. The oddsmakers pick LSU to lose by 6, which they will be doing before a successful nutjob, brass ball Les Miles decision in the final minute.

#5 Texas (+6.5) at #1 Oklahoma, Sat 12:00pm ABC
DanGo: IThe Big 12 has begun to resemble the NBA All-Star game — who the hell plays defense at these things? Rice and Tulsa combined for 1030 yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns and Sooners surpassed that.
DanGr: The Sooners always come to play hard in Dallas, something Texas can only surmount when the Longhorns are clearly superior on paper. Some things never change. Add another notch–not to mention a ten gallon hat–to the belt of Bob Stoops.

South Carolina (-1) at Kentucky, Sat 12:30pm Raycom
DanGo: South Carolina may be a slim favorite in this game, but the ‘Cats have peaked more recently, even though they were given a bit of a boost by Leigh Tiffin’s leg. Kentucky wins in a squeaker.

Notre Dame (+7.5) at #22 North Carolina, Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGr: North Carolina is ranked for the first time since 2001. Notre Dame is not ranked, which is just as good since if they were they would be called overrated. Both teams are greatly improved over last year, but only one of them can win this week. Bruce Carter will be the different for the Tar Heels as he blocks at least one punt to make the difference in a close game.

#6 Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin, Sat 8:00pm ESPN
DanGo: Wisconsin’s chances for legitimacy disappeared after back-to-back close losses to Michigan and Ohio State on consecutive weekends. Penn State is for real, and Wisconin will drop three straight.

#17 Oklahoma State (+14) at #3 Missouri, Sat 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Missouri will beat the living hell out of Oklahoma State, though the Cowboys will score some points on Mizzou’s defense. Mike Van Gundy will then call his brothers Stan and Jeff to cry, even though he’s a man who’s now 41.