Fourth and Dumb

Another week, another pick ‘em from your favorite band of intellectual miscreants.

Evan Nagler joins us as our guest this week. Evan is a Gainesville, FL native and former Brandeis student currently employed by the Census to make sure that the numerically insignificant Cham population in his hometown of Knoxville is not allowed to swing their votes in favor of Lyndon LaRouche in upcoming elections. Deeply knowledgeable about Jewish custom and lore, he uses such tactics as the Kabbalah to accurately pick winners each week. His system combines the number of ex-lovers Madonna has had and the exact current hair length of Britney Spears, along with a few other factors which he would prefer not to share.

It only took me 5 weeks to win a week this season. Truthfully, I’m a little too lazy to look back and see how long it took me last year, so we’ll just call this a “good thing” ™ and move along. There’s a Thursday game actually worth picking tonight, and we’ve got the inside scoop on who’s going to win. Assuming, of course, you understand that by “inside scoop” we really mean “stuff we’ve either painstakingly researched or just made up in order to make the deadline.”

Who’s that? Hans Blix? Why no, it’s week number 6!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 6’ »

Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

Congrats to DanGr, who picked his way to another win. Way to come on strong late in the season.

There’s only one thing better than Rivalry Week, and that’s Championship Week.

Fred’s gone MIA all of a sudden, so we’re picking against the chalk on his behalf. (I FELL ASLEEP – Fred)

ACC Championship: #17 Boston College (-1) vs. #25 Virginia Tech (Tampa, FL) Saturday 1:00pm ABC
DanGr: This is not what the ACC had in mind when it poached the Big East so they could get their hands on some championship game $$$. Both teams have very good defenses, so it will be the offenses that decide this one. Specifically, the pass offenses. Both defenses are going to stymie the run, so it will come down to who has the better quarterback. Dominique Davis > (Tyrod Taylor OR Sean Glennon) BC to the OB via a low scoring game.
Fred: If I wasn’t lazy, I’d post that picture of a half-empty stadium hosting last year’s ACC Championship game, accompanied by an uninspiring score. I am lazy, though. This should be the closest game of the weekend.

Big 12 Championship: #20 Missouri (+16.5) vs. #2 Oklahoma (Kansas City, MO), Saturday 8:00pm ABC
DanGo: I think it’s pretty much a consensus; especially after their poor showing against Kansas in the Border War last week, there’s no way Missouri’s defense can stop Sam Bradford for 60 minutes. Look for Oklahoma to pull away late.

Conference USA Championship: East Carolina (+12) at Tulsa, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGr: Surprisingly, this game will not be a shootout. ECU will make sure of that with their decent defense. But ultimately, Tulsa will pull away at the end to earn a trip to Memphis.

MAC Championship: #12 Ball State (-14.5) vs. Buffalo (Detroit, MI), Friday 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Turner Gill leads his team to the big upset and then gets a better job in a bigger conference (I hope).
DanGr: Do you get the feeling that the Cardinals are not going to be fully motivated at Ford Field? Buffalo will take advantage as they play lights out and shoot the bird all throughout the first half. But the skill differential is quite large and the Bulls did not fare well against anyone with a pulse. BSU will blow UB off the field in the second half to get to 13-0.

SEC Championship: #1 Alabama (+9.5) vs. #4 Florida (Atlanta, GA), Saturday 4:00pm CBS
DanGo: I’ve decided to try to be somewhat scientific in this pick. These are two talented teams, but Florida has the larger margin of victory over their six common conference opponents: 177-79. Florida only had two games where they outscored their opponent by less than 30 points – Tennessee and the loss to Ole Miss. Alabama only had 2 wins of more than 11 points, at Tennessee and at Arkansas. Look for the Florida D to stymie John Parker Wilson and for Tebow to get a chance to stretch his legs.
DanGr: The Crimson Tide defense and Gator offense will get their biggest tests of the year against each other. What about the Bama offense against the Florida defense? If the Tide defense can keep Florida under 30 points and keep them off the field, the offense should be able to do enough to get the victory late in the fourth quarter with a drawn out drive to end the game.

Navy (-11) vs. Army (Philadelphia, PA), Saturday 12:00pm CBS
Chris: Navy, by three samoans.
DanGr: If I pick against Navy again, my fiancee is sleeping on the couch. [Not really. -Ed.]

Arkansas State (+11) at Troy, Saturday 7:00pm ESPN360
DanGr: Troy is coming off a demolition of Louisiana Lafayette. The Trojans will continue their strong run in the de facto Sun Belt championship game.

Last week was a rough week for all of us, but Chris again proves victorious.

In the meantime, he didn’t submit his picks for this week, so we’re picking (against the chalk) for him!

Chris finally got his picks in…silly technical difficulties.

Hey look, Chris won the week! Picking against the chalk and conventional wisdom proved fruitful, bringing him within four games of .500 for the season.

There’s a great slate of matchups this week; there will be contenders eliminated after this week. Hopefully none of them will have to face Nitro in the Joust.

Clemson (+2.5) at #21 Wake Forest, Thursday 7:30pm ESPN
Chris: Wake Forest will beat Clemson because Clemson is coached by Tommy Bowden, who may distracted by how good his players look in their tight pants.

#4 LSU (+6) at #11 Florida, Sat 8:00pm CBS
Chris: Florida will slip by LSU by single digits on the strength of some long runs by Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and strong linebacker play which will limit LSU’s run game (a little) and force them to try to win through the air, not their strong suit this year.
DanGr: The Gator loss to Ole Miss revealed some cracks in the foundation. The Tigers will turn those cracks into breaches behind the steady play of newfound prime quarterback Jarrett Lee. Granted, LSU is not without flaws, which Florida will use to keep this close until the end. The oddsmakers pick LSU to lose by 6, which they will be doing before a successful nutjob, brass ball Les Miles decision in the final minute.

#5 Texas (+6.5) at #1 Oklahoma, Sat 12:00pm ABC
DanGo: IThe Big 12 has begun to resemble the NBA All-Star game — who the hell plays defense at these things? Rice and Tulsa combined for 1030 yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns and Sooners surpassed that.
DanGr: The Sooners always come to play hard in Dallas, something Texas can only surmount when the Longhorns are clearly superior on paper. Some things never change. Add another notch–not to mention a ten gallon hat–to the belt of Bob Stoops.

South Carolina (-1) at Kentucky, Sat 12:30pm Raycom
DanGo: South Carolina may be a slim favorite in this game, but the ‘Cats have peaked more recently, even though they were given a bit of a boost by Leigh Tiffin’s leg. Kentucky wins in a squeaker.

Notre Dame (+7.5) at #22 North Carolina, Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGr: North Carolina is ranked for the first time since 2001. Notre Dame is not ranked, which is just as good since if they were they would be called overrated. Both teams are greatly improved over last year, but only one of them can win this week. Bruce Carter will be the different for the Tar Heels as he blocks at least one punt to make the difference in a close game.

#6 Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin, Sat 8:00pm ESPN
DanGo: Wisconsin’s chances for legitimacy disappeared after back-to-back close losses to Michigan and Ohio State on consecutive weekends. Penn State is for real, and Wisconin will drop three straight.

#17 Oklahoma State (+14) at #3 Missouri, Sat 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Missouri will beat the living hell out of Oklahoma State, though the Cowboys will score some points on Mizzou’s defense. Mike Van Gundy will then call his brothers Stan and Jeff to cry, even though he’s a man who’s now 41.

Here is the follow-up column to last week’s future tense quintet,
brought to you in fantastic, high definition hindsight.

1.  Which teams are terrible. The Football Championship Subdivision
had its weakest opening weekend in years, needing to wait until after
midnight ET to claim its sole victim.  That victim was San Diego
State, which fell to Cal Poly on a game ending field goal.  Either the
Football Bowl Subdivision is stronger this year against their little
brothers, or the bottom of the barrel FBS schools chose their prey
wisely.

Among the highlighted games, Eastern Michigan obliterated Indiana
State, Marshall clobbered Illinois State, and Duke smashed James Mad.
San Jose State needed a last minute touchdown to escape from the jaws
of UC Davis.  Other close games, which should send up red flags for
the schools in question, were Delaware at Maryland (14-7 Terps),
McNeese State at North Carolina (35-27 Tar Heels), and Western
Illinois at Arkansas (28-24 Hogs).

2.  Which Division I football subdivision champion is superior in a
one-game series. While Appalachian State is still the favorite to
rock and roll all the way to Chattanooga, this game was no contest, as
the Bayou Bengals of LSU rolled to a 41-13 victory over the
Mountaneers.  Apparently LSU turned the tables and decided to put the
target on Appy’s back to avoid any chance of a Michigan-type upset.
It also helps to have a positive talent disparity, which will only
bring up again the old canard about the speed differences between the
SEC and Big 11.

3.  Which BCS Busters look good, which BCS Busters look shaky, and
which BCS Busters are out. All three teams highlighted in this space
are 1-0 in their quest to become America’s Next Top Mid-Major.  Utah
took a big lead at the Big House and held serve at the end to defeat
Michigan.  Fresno State crushed Rutgers in their first ever trip to
the east coast.  East Carolina employed vintage Beamer Ball to play
rude host to Virginia Tech.  A few more teams are expected to throw
their hats in the ring next week once they too knock off someone from
Les Six.

4.  Who gets an early lead in the conference races. Troy took early
control of the Sun Belt by going up to Murfreesboro and smacking
Middle Tennessee State.  Oregon State fumbled away its chance at a
come-from-behind win at Stanford.  New Mexico played dead at home
against opossum-hunter TCU.  Grain won over meat in the SMU-Rice
matchup.  Oregon dry cleaned Washington in the House of Quack.
Finally, in a game this column overlooked last week, Tulsa went to
Birmingham and did not love the gov’nuh, beating up on hometown UAB.

5.  Which good and potentially great teams can walk the walk. Clemson
made the wrong kind of statement at the Georgia Dome, running with
their tails between their legs up I-85 to escape the resurgent Crimson
Tide.  The expectations are now going to explode in Tuscaloosa.  The
next big thing is a matchup with Georgia at the end of the month.
In St. Louis, both Illinois and Missouri looked good, but the Tigers
took the early lead and left with the Braggin’ Rights.  Finally, the
ultimate game of the weekend saw UCLA turn Tennessee’s California
Dreamin’ into a nightmare as they knocked off the Vols in overtime.

It’s the first ever Fourth & Dumb weekly pick ‘em, starring your favorite college football bloggers.

Here’s how it’s going to work: we’re going to select 7 of the best games each week, and each attempt to pick the winners. We’ll keep a running total, and at the end of the season, someone may or may not get a trinket.

Here’s the rundown for week 1:

Alabama at Clemson
DanGr: Alabama will be good this season, but it will not show in this game at the Georgia Dome. Clemson under Tommy Bowden has a history of strong starts to the season, so Clemson should win this one without much trouble.
Fred: Clemson has, on paper, the most talent. James Davis is one of the best running backs around, and backup CJ Spiller is certainly not a hack. In fact, they could repeat what Arkansas did last year with two 1000 yard rushers. For Alabama, there is a lot of expectations, but it unfortunately doesn’t look like it’ll be filled this year. While the on paper thing hasn’t always worked out in the past, I think the Tigers have enough to go on this time. I’ll give the nod to Clemson.

Illinois at Missouri
DanGo: It’s hard to argue with the Daniel to Maclin connection. Juice Williams will be a threat for the Illini, but there’s not much of a chance that the Tigers don’t dominate this matchup.
Fred: Illinois is pretty overrated this year, which is expected after last season’s unexpected bounce back. The Big Ten is much stronger this year than last, and Illinois faces the issue of decent but not great talent. Missouri is a legitimate national title contender. The rushing game is a major concern that they will have to address, but the passing game should carry them until they hit the heart of their schedule and it’ll be more necessary. There is no reason Missouri shouldn’t win this game with ease.

NC State at South Carolina
Chris: South Carolina wins and covers; Spurrier Senior hits Spurrier Junior with his visor at least once.
DanGr: Tom O’Brien still has a lot of work to do to make the Wolfpack relevant again, while Steve Spurrier will have his team recovered from its end of season swoon in 2007.

James Madison at Duke
DanGo: As much as I’d love to jump on the Duke bandwagon this year, I’m still not entirely convinced. James Madison has made the FCS 1-AA playoffs three of the last four years; and it’s not like Duke would exactly be tops of say, the Sun Belt conference. I’m going with the Dukes over Duke.
DanGr: Despite the 1-11 record, Duke was not a completely lost cause last year. They have a surprisingly good quarterback, Thaddeus Lewis, who would start at at least three other schools in the ACC.

Tennessee at UCLA
DanGr: Do you remember what happened the last time Tennessee traveled to California? The Bruins pull the upset.
Fred: UCLA is going to have a very rough season. Rick Neuheisel has a reputation for good results in a short time period, but even with a healthy Ben Olsen they would have faced difficulties this season due to a very tough schedule. Tennessee would finish no lower than third in any other conference in the nation; in the SEC, they’ll be lucky to finish third in the East division. They have a load of talent, including their top four receivers, running back Arian Foster, 3/4 of their secondary and four offensive linemen returning. Overall, I favor Tennessee in this match up.

USC at Virginia
Chris: Hide away the women and children, Cavaliers; this one will be ugly for you.
DanGr: (Apologies for the length, but this is too good not to share in its entirety. – Ed.) This will go down as the most awesomely bad pick in the history of the universe, but I am picking the massive upset, making me the only person outside of Albemarle County and the Independent City of Charlottesville to choose the orange and blue. Virginia had a good season last year, but they appear to have issues this season. However, everyone will see this game in the schedule list and automatically pick USC to win based on their ranking and their history. However, quarterback Mark “Dirty” Sanchez will be shaky coming off an injury. It does not help that he was not that great when he got the “Booty Call” last season in the Stanford game, which was the biggest point spread upset ever. USC is not invincible outside of the Coliseum. This is not your older brother’s USC team. The crowd at Scott Stadium is going to be nuts, and will be double nuts when the home team is still hanging around in the fourth quarter. They will be triple nuts when the Cavaliers pull the biggest upset since the English Civil War.

Utah at Michigan
Chris: Michigan couldn’t lose their opener to a non-conference team twice in a row, could they? Sure they can–why not?
DanGr: Utah is one of those BCS Buster type teams that needs perfection. The dream will die as the Wolverines play more inspired football than last year in their season debut at the Big House.

Stay tuned next week, when we recap how we did, and take another shot at finding seven decent games to pick.

Now that the college football season has drawn to a close, it’s time to look at what this postseason (I’m not using that word until we get an actual playoff system, and I’m sure I’ll be long buried before that happens) bowl season has brought to us.

The gory details, and my analysis, below the jump.
Continue reading ‘The Best (and Worst) Bowl Games of 2007’ »

I found this on my morning blog check on Deadspin – apparently, Missouri is bringing the muscle on a guy who owns a site that mocks Missouri athletics.

“The bottom line here is that this is a silly, juvenile little fan blog that has been nothing more than an amusement for me. If they want to acquire it, then they can approach me. But to throw me up against the locker and shake me down for it,” Lozano said, “my reaction is going to be ‘No.’ ” – Richard Lozano, owner of missouritigers.com.

Keep on fighting the good fight, my man.

Dig the new logo, though: