1. Whether the Illinois of 2007 or the Illinois of 2008 will show up in 2009. After finding his way his freshman year, in 2007 Juice Williams led the way as the Fighting Illini jumped from the basement and punched Ohio State in the nose on the way to the Rose Bowl, where they got devoured by USC. Granted, Williams had a great 2008, with almost 4000 yards of total offense and 27 touchdowns, but it was his 16 interceptions that played a major part in UIUC’s drop to 5-7, not to mention some personnel losses, notably Rashard Mendenhall. For Ron Zook’s most heralded recruit, 2009 is the last chance to shoot for collegiate glory. If he can cut down on his mistakes and rally his supporting cast, 2009 could be another high tide for Illini football.
2. Whether Indiana is back to being the doormat of the Big Ten. When Indiana fulfilled Terry Hoeppner’s mantra of “Play 13″ in the season following his death, it seemed like Bill Lynch was on his way to making Indiana a respectable program. However, 2008 was a disaster as the Hoosiers fell to the bottom of the conference, their lone win over a decent Northwestern squad. 2009 looks like it could be just as bad, as their major playmaker, Kellen Lewis, got kicked off the team. It is up to quarterback Ben Chappell and a veteran offensive line to lead this team to respectability.
3. Which tier the Iowa Hawkeyes attain in 2009. Kirk Ferentz has led an above average program ever since he overcame the growing pains of taking over from Hayden Fry, which the high points being shares of the Big Ten championship in 2002 and 2004. However, since 2004, the team has been quite average, managing to make it to bowl games all but one year but not being in contention for the crown. No more was this evident than last year, where they started 0-2 in conference to end their chances. They showed their great potential when they upset Penn State, but the win could have been more meaningful for the Hawkeyes. Amid persistant NFL rumors for Ferentz, the team tries to overcome the loss of Shonn Greene and retake its spot in the upper tier of the Big Ten.
4. How well Michigan rebounds from that. That, of course, was the worst season in Wolverines history, completely demolishing Big Blue’s leadership as the most consistently good program in college football over the last 40 years. Now comes year two under Rich Rodriguez, where anything less than a bowl game will set off any panic buttons that had not already been expunged by the shocking collapse. A look to the south reveals a program recovering from similar turmoil a year removed. That program, Notre Dame, comes to Ann Arbor in a litmus test of how much Michigan has improved over the spring. While a loss to Notre Dame will not portend another bad season, a more in-depth reading of the game could portend whether the Wolverines are turning a corner or if they are vulnerable to pulling another Toledo under Rich Rod.
5. Which direction Michigan State goes after an excellent 2008. Reversing a recent trend for the Spartans, MSU defeated everyone it was supposed to and lost to everyone they were supposed to. Despite that, they had a chance for a share of the Big Ten title on the last weekend of conference play before they showed they were not up to the challenge of unseating Penn State in its house. Can the Spartans climb higher, and perhaps challenge the big boys for the title for the first time in a decade? They need to overcome many losses, notably quarterback Brian Hoyer and tailback Javon Ringer. Mark Dantonio’s teams have a history of not dropping off a cliff like previous Spartan teams. Can the latest talent step up enough to avoid a drop down the Big Ten standings?
6. If Minnesota can build on its 2008 rebound season. If the 7-1 start seemed too good to be true, then FIFTEEN for you, because you are correct! After a strong start to the year, with the sole blemish being a loss to Ohio State in which they were reasonably competitive, the bottom fell out and they lost their last five games. The most galling loss was to their Little Brown Jug nemesis Michigan, which stomped them 29-6 at home, thus pissing away a chance to kick the Wolverines when they are down.
Alas, 2008 was a great improvement over 2007, and Tim Brewster sure hopes to continue the upward movement. The Golden Gophers also move into a new stadium, TCF Bank Stadium, which should inspire them to a strong year. It is doubtful they can break into the top tier of the conference this year, but that possibility gets a bit wider with a top of the conference in 2009.
7. Whether Northwestern will go to back-to-back bowls for the second time ever. The first time was following the 1995 and 1996 seasons, when the defense was led by some guy called Pat Fitzgerald. Heady times are here again for the Wildcats, but will they take advantage? They need to replace quarterback C.J. Bacher, but the schedule is quite kind as long as they do not drop games to teams like Indiana as they did a year ago. It would be a shock if this team was in contention for the Big Ten title, but it has happened before and it could happen again.
8. If Ohio State returns to the BCS. Along with Penn State, Ohio State is one of the conference’s two major contenders to advance to the BCS. And while the Buckeyes have not fared well in those games as of late, they are still to be commended for going to four straight BCS bowls, including two title games. So anything less than the BCS would be a disappointment. It would be a major shock if the Buckeyes put up less than ten wins. So we know this team is really good, but a major barometer will be their September 12 match with USC. They should be favored in a game they really need to win if they want the January 7 game rather than the January 1 game in Pasadena.
9. Whether Penn State defends their crown and finds their way to the bigger game in Pasadena. The Nittany Lions rose to the top of the Big Ten again and went to their first Rose Bowl since 1995. However, they were also a loss to Iowa away from the BCS National Championship Game. Will they be inspired by the pain of being so close in 2008 to make it happen in 2009? Their most difficult game is Ohio State, but it is one of eight games at Beaver Stadium. They also face potential landmines with trips to a potentially rebounding Illinois, recovering Michigan, and a possibly resurgent Michigan State in the regular season finale. It may not be fair, but they realistically need to go 12-0 to play in the biggest of the big games, but with Daryl Clark returning, they just might be able to do it.
10. Whether Purdue finds its way back to decency in 2009. The 2008 version of the Boilermakers represented a serious regression, given Purdue had been a slightly above average program under Joe Tiller. Tiller retired and now Danny Hope is in charge of getting them back to a bowl. It will not be easy. It is one of those situations where everyone seems to be getting better and only shaking things out will let us know who improved the most or, at the least, did not regress. Purdue hopes to be in the former category.
11. Which half of the season Wisconsin will roll through its competition. That is usually the schema for the Badgers, except it did not happen in 2008. They started 0-4 in the Big Ten, but recovered enough to get a bowl bid. However, it was a very shaky season. The four game losing streak included a loss to 3-9 Michigan. The three game winning streak late in the season included being taken to overtime by Cal Poly.
So how will 2009 play out? Bret Bielema’s tenure has been marked by a downward trend, with 2008 turning out to be very penalty heavy. If this trend continues, 2009 portends a losing season, which would likely cause AD Barry Alvarez to put Bret’s feet to the fire. But you never know. Bielema could turn it around and this team could be a Big Ten surprise.