Fourth and Dumb

We’re alive and kicking, and back for another season, ladies and gents.

Real quick, let’s recap how last season turned out.

In our annual Bowl Challenge, we’ve been beaten by one of our readers for the second straight year. Brice Russ, linguistics Ph.D. student at The Ohio State University, claims to know nothing about football. He started out 0-3 in bowl season this past year, came back to go 9-1 on the New Year’s Eve/Day bowls and picked 24 of 4 games correctly to win the “title.” He was the only person to pick more than 21 bowl games correctly, and for that he has both my commendation and admiration.

Here’s the final standings among your four illustrious writers and the combined guest record.

DanGo 90-56
Chris 85-61
Fred 81-65
Guest 80-64
DanGr 76-60

I don’t like to gloat – but holy crap, I won?! Bet that doesn’t happen again.

I want thank everyone who picked as a guest last year. Special congratulations go to Evan Nagler, Chad Sinness, Ricky Compton, and Mike Cheyne, who each went 6-2 in their week to tie as the best of the guests. And we’re doing it again this year! If you want to get in on the guest picking action, post an email address here and I’ll get in touch with you.

For week one this year, our guest is Matthew Worner. Matthew Worner is a 2008 Master of Public Administration graduate from Virginia Tech’s Center for Public Adminsitration and Policy. He is an information technology auditor with one of the national security agencies (not disclosed… if it was, well…) in Washington, DC. Matthew is also probably one of the few Hokies that you know from North Dakota (maybe the only person you know from North Dakota). In his spare time, Matthew is an avid follower of the Hokies, is also enrolled in an Executive Master of Policy Management graduate program at Georgetown University. You can find him on Twitter at @HokieGuru.

We’ve got a decent slate of games for week one this year. Let’s go!

Read on for commentary and analysis.

Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 1’ »

Another week, another pick ‘em from your favorite band of intellectual miscreants.

Evan Nagler joins us as our guest this week. Evan is a Gainesville, FL native and former Brandeis student currently employed by the Census to make sure that the numerically insignificant Cham population in his hometown of Knoxville is not allowed to swing their votes in favor of Lyndon LaRouche in upcoming elections. Deeply knowledgeable about Jewish custom and lore, he uses such tactics as the Kabbalah to accurately pick winners each week. His system combines the number of ex-lovers Madonna has had and the exact current hair length of Britney Spears, along with a few other factors which he would prefer not to share.

It only took me 5 weeks to win a week this season. Truthfully, I’m a little too lazy to look back and see how long it took me last year, so we’ll just call this a “good thing” ™ and move along. There’s a Thursday game actually worth picking tonight, and we’ve got the inside scoop on who’s going to win. Assuming, of course, you understand that by “inside scoop” we really mean “stuff we’ve either painstakingly researched or just made up in order to make the deadline.”

Who’s that? Hans Blix? Why no, it’s week number 6!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 6’ »

So, it’s late, and I have to be up in about 5 hours, so here’s the long and short of it.

Chris kicked ass again, the rest of us are beginning to fall behind.

The pressure to atone for last week’s guest picks falls on the shoulders of Mike Dame. Mike, once upon a time, was Chris’ freshman roommate in college (and somehow lived to tell the tale). A former AP poll and Heisman voter, Mike is also a former employee of Virginia Tech. His most memorable moment as a sportswriter, in his own words:

When Norm Sloan pointed at me in a press conference in October 1989 after I reported in The Independent Florida Alligator that his firing was imminent. “It’s like throwing chum in the water, and you frenzy like a bunch of sharks!” Sloan famously said of the media. “I’m not going anywhere!” Two days later, UF announced Sloan’s “resignation.” (God rest his soul, because I loved Norm Sloan.)

And with that, we move on to Week 5.

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 5’ »

The biggest news of the fifth weekend in the world’s greatest college football conference came from its dullest game, Florida’s 41-7 victory over Kentucky, 31/48 of the total points of which came in the first 15 minutes. Of course the news was the bonk on Tim Tebow’s noggin, which was truly horrifying for all Gator fans. Seeing Tim’s blank face on the sideline brought home just how serious a head trauma he took.

Of course, now we know he seems mostly fine, though he’s going to sit all of this week and may not be cleared to start against LSU on October 10, but most of us are betting he will. Now that he’s mostly well, though, it’s worth noting that the Gators can now proclaim another title: CFB’s pukiest team. Timmy joined his roommate Riley Cooper in being shown on national TV barfing; Coop planted some green-looking yams after running a couple long outs against Charleston Southern. Mmmmm.

Miss State nearly shocked the world by taking down LSU. If the Tigers are giving up 26 points to MSU (and if Tyson Lee really stretches on fourth down, they’d have given up 33 and the win), they’re in trouble. This week they get to play the REAL Bulldogs, the ones for whom Joe Cox is making people forget that dude who’s playing for the Lions now. They might give up 40+ to Georgia between the hedges.

Alabama’s defense really locked down mega-man Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. I think an argument could easily be made that Alabama has been the best team in the country over this third of the season, led by a stout D and an offense which is keeping McElroy methodical and in management of games.

Arizona State’s defense showed it was for real against the Dawgs, but Cox came through with a nice drive when he had to, getting field position for the winning FG. Georgia is finding a good offensive rhythm; if they had made another play or two versus Okie State, they’d be sitting in the top five right now. As it is, they might get in after beating LSU this weekend, provided we see some upsets like we have the last couple weeks.

Nobody else played anybody really worth commenting on, but I can’t help but point out that Tennessee nearly gave up as many points at home to Ohio as they did to the Gators in the Swamp. I think Lane’s daddy could’ve spent some of the off-season looking at video of other teams, couldn’t he?

Just a few minutes before I take the wife and kid to a friend’s to watch the USF-FSU game of dyslexia. But I didn’t want to leave our loyal fans without my sage predictions for the fourth week in the world’s greatest conference of football:

There’s a top three offense (Arkansas) going against a top three defense today in Tuscaloosa. The Razorbacks are going to give the Tide all they can handle today, but Bama’s defense is too good to let Zeus-like Ryan Mallett to throw his lightning bolts all over them. Bama gets two picks wins 27-23.

Miss State will slow it down and slog it out, as they always do, against the Bayou Tigres in Starkville. Still, even Jordan Jefferson can get some first downs against the “athletes” Miss State rolls out on defense. LSU wins 23-10 after a close first half.

Arizona State currently has a top 20 defense statistically, but they haven’t played anybody. The Dawgs hang 40+ on the Scum Devils between the hedges and knock them out of the nation’s statistically best D’s.

I just heard that Jesus didn’t protect Timmy from getting a respiratory infection, but at least it’s not the flu that so many other Gators are suffering. Brandon Spikes is fighting some nasty tendinitis in his heel, and I heard a doctor say this week that the overcompensating that people do with such injuries can lead to a ruptured achilles, so I hope that Charlie Strong doesn’t make him play much today. Kentucky’s not the pushover they used to be, but the Gators will get their 23rd straight against the ‘Cats by something like 33-13.  I just don’t think the Gator offense is going to be destroying too many people this year, but they’ll grind it out again.

The other games mostly suck. Tennessee fans will feel good about themselves for beating Ohio, and Auburn will crush Ball State. Next week we’ll learn something about Auburn when they go to Tennessee, where I predict they’ll give Kiffin another “moral victory.”  Oh, and don’t be surprised if Rice’s bizarre triple option gets the win over Vanderbilt.

Let the cheddar burst out of the wurst and the Red Stripe flow like the milk of paradise!

The dust is settling on signing day, and the usual suspects are at the top of all the experts’ consensus winners. ESPN has it like this: LSU, USC, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida, Miami, Georgia, Oklahoma, FSU.  No real surprises there.

Les Miles and Nick Satan continue to work wonders by bringing in stars. With this class, luring big names like Russell Shephard away from Texas, Miles has proven that he doesn’t need Saban’s recruits to win. Keep in mind that if LSU had had a good starting QB last year, they could’ve likely beaten anybody. So they’ve reloaded. Satan kept his best players ins state and out of Auburn, and he held onto consensus #1 RB Trent Richardson.

Like anyone else watching ESPNU today, I got to see some clips of LSU’s Shephard; that kid is fast and strong, and I imagine that in fall 0f 2010 he’ll be starting for LSU, unless, of course, he lives his life like Ryan Perriloux, who got tossed out of Baton Rouge last season–therein lies the inherent difficulty of getting too excited about signing day.

Sure, championships are won based on what teams bring in today, but for every Percy Harvin there’s a Steve Shipp, a Gator recruit back in ‘95 who was the top-rated WR on everyone’s board, and by some lights the best overall player recruited that year. He barely got onto the field at UF during a stretch when they didn’t have the best receiving corps.

The one team that never ceases to amaze is USC. They pick up the country’s top QB prospect again, which appears to be a yearly prerogative for the Trojans. This year it’s Matt Barkley, who attended California’s QB assembly line, Mater Dei High School. Other notable QBs out of there: Matt Leinart, Colt Brennan, and 1964 Heisman winner John Huarte. Crikey. In the meantime, they can have verbal commitments broken by a top-five recruit like Manti Te’o or top-five OL Xavier Sua-Filo, and they still may have the best group in the country. What’s even more shocking is that some Samoan/Hawaiian dudes didn’t go to USC–isn’t it some kind of law for those guys to go to USC?

Okay, more to come. Stay tuned.

Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

Week 12 in the the SEC was mostly uneventful. The biggest upset was Vandy’s win over Kentucky, which wasn’t too much of a surprise, anyway. Of course, the world almost turned completely upside down when Troy jumped out to a big lead and held it into the fourth quarter against LSU, but the Tigers woke up and reassumed control just in time.

The Gators continued their savage pillaging of the East, running the ‘Cocks out of the Swamp 56-6. Once again, much of this was done with defense: besides another pick six for Nagurski finalist Brandon Spikes, turnovers set up a bunch of other Gator scores. It’s hard to understand why the Gators couldn’t play at least somewhat like this for their first four games; the way they’re playing now, don’t we think they’d hang more than 50 on Miami, Tennessee, and Ole Miss? Clearly something was mentally or spiritually wrong in that first third of the season, as no significant player changes have been made. Maybe Timmy just needed to look into the abyss of the Ole Miss loss to shake off the external pressure and start leading his offense the way he is now. He isn’t putting up Heisman numbers this year, but why should he? The Gates have weapons like Man Moody, Deonte Thompson, and Louis Murphy who are barely getting used right now; there aren’t enough footballs to spread around to all the ridiculous speed on that offense. Pity the BULLDOGS (thanks, DanGR!) of The Citadel this weekend. We’ll see if Gator back-up QB John Brantley can get 250 yards passing in that one.

Alabama shut down Miss State in workmanlike fashion, holding on to their deserved #1 ranking. Still, Alabama’s rep right now has been almost entirely made by the first half in Athens against the Dawgs. The Tide’s big win against Clemson doesn’t look nearly as good now, and the rest of their wins also lack the splash of those by the Big Three of the Southern Division of the Big 12 or the Gators. Still, flashiness of wins won’t matter if they can claim the Iron Bowl for the first time since 2001 and beat the Gators in Atlanta. The way the Gators are playing right now, however, leads me to figure that they’ll be 15-17 point favorites on the Tide right now, though that line could change based on the next couple weeks.

The Auburn-Georgia game lost some luster this year, but it was a great, old-timey SEC game to watch. Lots of hard hitting and off-tackle running. Georgia’s D really dug deep to stop Auburn’s last drive and hold on for the win. It will be interesting to see what kind of offense Georgia fields next year, after Stafford and Moreno are gone (as I assume they will be).

This week’s SEC slate is pretty thin, with nearly half the conference on hiatus. Miss State hosts Arkansas in a game only the family members of players will care about, and Florida gets to ritually sacrifice, dismember, and devour Citadel. Real SEC fans will be interested in the last two games, however: LSU hosts an Ole Miss team that is very interested in making a statement to recruits about its bright future, and Vanderbilt gets to dump the final load of manure on the career of Phil Fulmer, which presumably they’ll do with glee. In the newly christened “Magnolia Bowl” (a name developed jointly by student bodies at LSU and Ole Miss to name their rivalry), I’m guessing we’ll see an Ole Miss win for the first time since 2001, and in the Nashville we’ll see a 19-13 grinder win for the ‘Dores.

Crikey–once again there has been deadly violence inspired perhaps in part (or totally) because of crazy reactions by SEC “fans.” Witnesses say that Michael W. Williams of Owassa, Alabama, shot and killed Dennis and Donna Smith with a shotgun based on hostilities over the outcome of the Bama-LSU game. However, a spokesperson for the Smith family says that it wasn’t based on the game. Still, witnesses say that arguments over the result may have caused the situation to get out of hand.  Link

Back in 2003 a man from Pinson, Alabama, was convicted of attempted murder after holding a gun to his son’s head after a Bama loss to Arkansas. My favorite quote from that: Deputy Randy Christian, who arrested Joseph Logan, said, “We take our football seriously in the South, but this is crossing the line.”

Ya think?

What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.