Fourth and Dumb

Another week, another pick ‘em from your favorite band of intellectual miscreants.

Evan Nagler joins us as our guest this week. Evan is a Gainesville, FL native and former Brandeis student currently employed by the Census to make sure that the numerically insignificant Cham population in his hometown of Knoxville is not allowed to swing their votes in favor of Lyndon LaRouche in upcoming elections. Deeply knowledgeable about Jewish custom and lore, he uses such tactics as the Kabbalah to accurately pick winners each week. His system combines the number of ex-lovers Madonna has had and the exact current hair length of Britney Spears, along with a few other factors which he would prefer not to share.

It only took me 5 weeks to win a week this season. Truthfully, I’m a little too lazy to look back and see how long it took me last year, so we’ll just call this a “good thing” ™ and move along. There’s a Thursday game actually worth picking tonight, and we’ve got the inside scoop on who’s going to win. Assuming, of course, you understand that by “inside scoop” we really mean “stuff we’ve either painstakingly researched or just made up in order to make the deadline.”

Who’s that? Hans Blix? Why no, it’s week number 6!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 6’ »

So you know that time you had a guy you didn’t like, and you wanted to pull a prank on him to get him, so you set him up to think he’s meeting a girl he likes at an abandoned house in your neighborhood, but in the meantime you got a group of gay bikers to go there expecting some rough trade just off the Greyhound, and you watched through the window thinking it was going to be funny, but then your chuckling turned to ill feeling, and then to horror, and then you had to run away screaming? Right? That’s like a typical coming-of-age thing, right? No? Oh.

Anyway, the point is that’s what it’s been like watching FSU implode the last couple years for this Gator fan. It started out kind of funny to watch them getting shut out by Wake Forest at home, or talking about how they were all the way back this year and then getting nearly bitch-slapped by Jacksonville State, but after the loss to BC it’s just gotten ugly up there. Jim Smith, head of the trustees (and personal friend of the Bowdens) says Bobby has to go, so Bobby’s wife Ann blasts Smith in the press and talks about how Bobby’s being betrayed, but then Smith tells a Tampa paper that Bobby’s just like an old dog that needs to be put down, and then TK Wetherell offers a half-assed vote of confidence for Bobby: it’s all just so tawdry.

I have some Gator pals whose hatred for all things FSU is so unalloyed that they’ll take pleasure in all this, but I’ve always thought football in this state was best when the Big Three (screw you, Bulls fans, you’re not there yet) are all contenders. It’s certainly more fun to beat FSU when they’re in the top ten (something that seems nigh unto impossible in the near future right now–the top ten, I mean, not beating them, which is very, very possible for most teams). And though I’ve always argued that the good-ol-boy, aw-shucks, chocolate-cake-eating Bobby image is a bit of a myth, that you don’t win that many games without being a vicious killer at some level, I still respect what Bowden’s done and am starting to hate watching him get punked out of the game in this fashion.

I don’t see much silver lining for the Noles, either. My local paper pointed out today that the Noles have an identical record in the first 31 games since Jimbo Fisher has been OC as they did in the last 31 that Baby Bowden was OC. And the stats are pretty similar (better rushing under Jimbo, better passing under Jeff). Granted, he’s not the head honcho yet, but I haven’t seen anything with this offense to make me think Jimbo’s the guy. But they’ve got too much money into him to have any other choice. Good luck, Nolies–you’re gonna need all of it you can get.

What a roller coaster ‘Noles fans have been riding this year while following their team. First they lose a thriller to their arch-rival, geting four shots at the end zone before losing a somewhat sloppy but still exhilirating game. Then they nearly barf their season away versus Jacksonville State, causing panic in NoleLand and generating some blog noise about the mistake of placing the future of the program in Jimbo Fisher’s hands. And then last week they beat the bejeezus out of a very good BYU team (don’t go thinking the Mormons are no good; they still beat a very good Oklahoma team on a neutral field).

So who is Florida State this year? It seems to me there have been two constants: a very good passing game led by a much-improved Christian Ponder and a WR corps that’s playing way better than most could have expected, combined with a secondary that’s always just one play away from giving up a 70-yard TD or taking an interception back for one. This should make for some fun games to watch, as long as, like me, you’re not overly worried about the outcome. But if I were one of you die-hard Noles, I’d keep a barf bag handy.

This Saturday they’ll take USF apart, especially with Grothe on the sideline. Then they get this stretch:

At Boston College; home vs. Ga. Tech; at North Carolina; home vs. NC State; at Clemson.

There’s your ACC season, obviously. (After that there’s a guaranteed win and a guaranteed loss involving Maryland and at Florida–I’ll let you guess which is which). I think the Noles can go 4-1 through that stretch the way their offense is playing, as long as Mickey can get that secondary to play a little bit more consistently. I know I’d like to see a FSU-Miami rematch in the ACC in RayJay in Tampa.

Congrats to DanGr, who managed to become the first FnD writer to have a winning record for the week. It only took two weeks, folks!

Also – a quick plug here for the Fourth and Dumb College Pick ‘Em Challenge on ESPN.com. Some of you have joined but neglected to submit picks for a week for two. (I’m looking at YOU, Dan Greenstein.)

This week’s guest picker is Craig Barker. Craig is a member of the University of Michigan quiz bowl team in the previous century, longtime member of the Mike Keenan Employment Agency trash team, and a man currently enjoying his quiz bowl retirement. A Michigan football fan for so long he can still vividly remember listening to Mike Gilette’s field goal to beat Iowa in 1985, he has resigned himself to the fact that he will never be the most famous member of his collegiate graduating class. (Curse you Tom Brady, you handsome devil.) When not posting not-quite-as-witty-as-he-thinks rejoinders on various points on the Internet, he can be found blogging about Michigan athletics (including the Marching Band) at The Hoover Street Rag.

Based on our records after two weeks, I’m not sure we can do much worse. Here’s to hoping the season improves. Moving on!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 3’ »

You may have heard that the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA), led by fossil Grant Teaff (pronounced “taahf”–remember when he coached Baylor in the 80s? No? Really?) has proposed that all teams playing on this upcoming opening weekend of the 2009 season exchange a handshake at midfield before the game. It’s a one-time thing, symbolic of the hopes that sportsmanship and gentlemanly civility will rule the day for our young scholar-athletes throughout the season.

A nice idea on paper, and maybe not a bad thing for 90% of the non-conference (or even non-division) ritual sacrifices for pay that populate our weekend’s schedule. Does anyone expect the Buccaneers of Charleston Southern to get feisty with the Gators in The Swamp during pre-game festivities? Would anyone think the Fighting Mormons of BYU would swear at Sam Bradford? Will the gentlemanly Midshipmen ask Terrell Pryor if his mother has been selling potato chips*? Certainly not. Handshakes in such games will be nice to see.

However, I’m going to be in the stands for a game that has gotten ugly before the coin toss on more than one occasion: Miami vs. FSU at Bobby Bowl. FSU has won four of five from the ‘Canes, who ought to be in a foul mood and who have been known in the past to try to grab the spear thrown or horse ridden by the frat boy who gets to be Chief Osceola (side note: isn’t it weird that the main mascot is named for a man tricked by US soldiers under a flag of truce into capture and then allowed to die from typhus?) before games up there. Maybe I’m just cynical, but I can see some pretty graphic exchanges along that handshake line. AndI expect the same from some pissed-off Ducks none too thrilled about being punked by Boise State last year in their home stadium.

Well, we’ll see. Maybe I’ll be lucky enough to watch a Miami-FSU riot in person. Good times!

*(Then why did she have a sign saying “Lays 50 cents” in the yard? Haw haw!)

Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

Connecting back to DanGr’s article about the seeming hot new trend of anointing coaches-in-waiting, it’s worth remembering that Jimbo Fisher’s contract at FSU will pay him $2.5 million if he hasn’t been elevated to head coach by January 11, 2011. That means that Papa Bowden gets next season and the 2010 season to try to bring the Noles back to the ACC championship and beyond.

This opens up some potential thorny issues for FSU. Bowden will be 81 on that date, which makes us folks who are younger than 70 assume he’d have to retire, but his health is pretty good and he’s always insisted that he has no interest in being retired. FSU loses a lot on defense next year, but they’ve got a bunch of blue chippers waiting to come in; right now it’s a fair bet that two season from now they’ll be very good, especially if Ponder continues to develop. What iv the Noles win the ACC and more in 2010, and Bowden doesn’t want to go? $2.5 mill is a lot to pay an OC on top of his regular contract. Would Bowden resign the head coaching spot and accept a position of Recruiting Closer or Coach Emeritus for $1 a year or something?

This is just one reason why this coach-in-waiting thing is a bad idea. I’ve got a sneaking feeling that Jimbo Fisher will never be head coach at FSU. Someone will snap him up and pay his buyout before then, or Bowden will decide he doesn’t want to retire in January, 2011. Should be fun to watch.

Merry Christmas, Chappy Channukah, Kwazy Kwanzaa everybody!

And no, I am not talking about the Wildcat formation.  I am talking about the newfangled trend of teams designating a coach in waiting to take over a program once the current coach rides off into the sunset or moves upstairs.  While the concept of a succession plan has been ever present, it is only in the past two years that sitting in the white chair has become trendy.

Prior to three weeks ago, the purpose of a succession plan was to ensure a smooth transition once the current head coach retired from coaching.  Keeping the same system going and most of the same staff in place is very important when it comes to recruiting, as recruits may jump ship if the new guy intends to bring in a system with which they disagree.  The coaching succession is enacted in either of two ways:

- The current coach decides to retire in x years.  This is what happened a year ago when Joe TIller decided to retire at Purdue.  He appointed as his coach-designate Danny Hope, who was the head coach at Eastern Kentucky University.  The plan was similar to one Purdue experienced a few years earlier when Southern Illinois basketball coach Matt Painter joined Gene Keady’s staff the year before Keady retired.

A similar situation occurred at the University of Wisconsin, where Bret Bielema was hired as Barry Alvarez’s defensive coordinator a year before Alvarez retired from coaching in 2005.  Incidentally, Alverez had become the athletic director shortly beforehand and would leave behind his headset to take on the AD duty full time.

Another example of this phenonmenon was enacted last year by the Seattle Seahawks.  Mike Holmgren will be retiring after the 2008 NFL season.  He will be replaced by Jim L. Mora, a succession that is now in question due to rumors on Wikipedia that he will replace Tyrone Willingham at the University of Washington.

- The current coach decides to retire at an indeterminate time in the future.  This is the situation at Florida State, where Jimbo Fisher was hired as offensive coordinator and will succeed Bobby Bowden once he designs to call it quits in Tallahassee, whenever he decides to stop chasing Joe Paterno.

A similar situation occurred at Kentucky.  However, instead of hiring someone from the outside, RIch Brooks designated the current offensive coordinator Joker Phillips to be his successor at the unknown date in the future he retires.

This situation also occured in the NBA several years ago when Don Nelson of the Dallas Mavericks appointed Avery Johnson as his successor.  Bet you forgot that one, didn’t you?  After all, Nelson unretired and is now coaching the Golden State Warriors and Avery Johnson is a sporadic analyst on ESPN.

A much more recent trend features an explication of the need for continuity, but has the implication that the athletic department is trying to keep other programs’ grubby paws off of their hot assistant.  These plans almost always have an indefinite enactment date and a shiny veneer of insincerity.  The first example of such a plan occurred at the University of Texas.  Once observations showed that defensive coordinator Will Muschamp would be a hot commodity on the coaching carousel, the Longhorns decided to lock him up and lock him down by designating him as Mack Brown’s successor.  To realize the absurdity and boldness of this move, know that Mack Brown’s contract runs through 2016, and that everyone admits it could be a long time before Brown steps down and Muschamp ascends to the throne.

A similar situation occured at Oregon this week, but with a more complex setup.  The Ducks made offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has downtrodden programs drooling, the head coach designate for whenever Mike Bellotti decides to turn in his headset.  But wait.  There’s more!  Bellotti, for his part, is now the athletic director designate for when current AD Pat Kilkenny retires.  However, it will be Bellotti’s decision as to when he ascends to the front office.  To add another layer of intrigue, the deal was brokered by outgoing University of Oregon president Dave Frohnmayer.

Oregon’s complicated plan also solves the problem of athletic director continuity, a lesson that should not be lost on programs that bungle their coach hiring decisions.  Come on down, athletic director Daryl Gross of Syracuse University!  Your head is next on the chopping block!

Hey – what’s that? I’m not so bad at picking games after all. We’ve got a tie for second place now.

Boston College (+6.5) at #19 Florida State, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Can anyone name any players on Boston College? I’m guessing DanGr could, but I can’t.
[Ed.: DanGr chose not to respond to this particular challenge, but I will: Kevin Challenger.]

South Carolina (+22.5) at #4 Florida, Sat 3:30pm CBS
DanGr: Does this seem familiar? They were in the exact same situation two years ago, twiddling their thumbs waiting for the SEC Championship Game. They ended up a botched field goal away from their national championship dreams being crushed in The Swamp by the Cocks. Do not be surprised if this is another close one, but the Gators will ultimately prevail.

#16 North Carolina (-3) at Maryland, Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGo: There’s no “football science” in this pick. Maryland’s playing a a ranked team at home, thus.
Fred: Maryland is the Herschel Walker of college football. Not the dominating, run through eight brick walls and several small children actual player Herschel Walker, but you never know which Herschel you’re going to get Herschel Walker.

Minnesota (+13.5) at Wisconsin, Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGo: Both of these teams have had a surprising season; Minnesota in a good way, Wisconsin in a not so good way. The Gophers have been surprising, but the loss to Michigan last week was a demoralizing blow, and the Badgers look to be too tough to stop.

Virginia Tech (+3.5) at Miami (FL), Thursday 8:00pm ESPN
Chris: Robert Marve continues running in place by throwing a couple picks, and Va Tech gets just enough offense to win.
DanGo: While I’m cheering for the Hokies the whole time in this one, I’m going to have to pick against them. The offense has still been stagnant, and even with a questionable return from Tyrod Taylor, the Hokies have too many question marks to play 60 minutes with a resurgent group of Hurricanes.

UCF (+7) at Marshall, Saturday 4:30 CSS
Chris: UCF has the worst offense in Division I, but Joe Burnett will get a pick and make a special teams play to get the Knights over. Bet on a combined under of 29 points.
PS–boy does George O’Leary suck.
DanGr: George O’Leary not only did not play college football, he also did not earn a Master’s in Education from NYU. Zing! That is besides the point. Face it, this Golden Knights team is as tarnished as O’Leary’s reputation. They are going to get spanked in Huntington against a Herd that wants to put pressure on East Carolina in the C-USA East race.

Notre Dame (-4) at Navy (Baltimore, MD), Saturday 12:00pm CBS
DanGr: If I pick against Navy again, my fiancée will exile herself to the couch.
Chris: DanGR, your fiancee needs to start practicing now to be a wife: YOU get exiled to the couch, not her.
DanGr: My fiancee will be no ordinary wife. I paid for the bed, so it is she who leaves. She agrees with me on this point.

What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.