Fourth and Dumb

After three weeks, the entirety of our pickers are within one game of each other. I don’t think I’ve seen this much parity since the 2008 ACC. Is that a good thing?

Last week’s guest picker, Craig Barker, took a couple gambles and kept the guest spot at a perfect .500 record.

This week’s guest is James Quintong. James is an editor and occasional writer for ESPN.com’s fantasy section and also was on the original staff at CNNSI.com (now SI.com). He was a longtime member of TRASH before moving to other side of the buzzer, and is currently part of the reigning TRASHionals champions. In short, he’s everything that the good chunks of the blogosphere and quizbowl world apparently dislike. Oh yeah, he helped form Northwestern’s quizbowl team back in the mid-’90s, right around the time the Wildcats went to the Rose Bowl, and also graduated the same year as current head coach Pat Fitzgerald (but isn’t sure if that makes feel old or young).

Want to join us as a guest? Leave a comment with an email address, and we’ll get in touch.

On to week 4!

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 4’ »

Chris Borglum, ladies and gentlemen. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

He is…dare I say it…en fuego.

Commentary and analysis after the jump. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 3’ »

Hey folks, it’s Rivalry Week!

Chris and Fred tied again, and Borglum is now trying to work his way out of the basement.

I dropped the ball a little this week too, but I can assure you that all picks were in prior to the Pitt-WVU kickoff I totally overlooked today.

And now…

COMMEN-TARY *clap clap clapclapclap*

Iron Bowl: Auburn (+14.5) at #1 Alabama, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: Bama’s front four won’t allow Auburn to run consistently, and we’ve all seen that Kodi Burns can’t win a big game with his arm. Bama snaps its string of Iron Bowl losses, and we all hope that no one gets shot afterward.

Hardee’s Trophy: South Carolina (+1) at Clemson, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Stephen Garcia will solidify his hold on the QB job for the bowl game, and Jasper Brinkley and SC’s nasty defense will stop the great two-headed running back of Clemson.
DanGr: After the midseason crash that saw Tommy Bowden bite the dust, the Tigers are quietly on a three-game winning streak. This one is for an invitation to a bowl game and to rip the interim tag off of Dabo Swinney’s title. For that, C.J. “100%” Spiller and Clemson will play their best game of the year and sock it to the Cocks.

Bedlam Series: #3 Oklahoma (-7) at #12 Oklahoma State, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
DanGo: Oklahoma’s throttling of Texas Tech in Norman was a shock to many who had written off the Sooners. The trip to Stillwater won’t be anything close to hospitable, but the Cowboys have been the odd man out in the game of musical chairs that is the Big 12 South. It will be exciting, but the Sooners will persevere.
DanGr: Oklahoma has had a clunker in the regular season (plus championship game) every year since the championship season. Oklahoma State has been forgotten and wants to make a statement. The Cowboys will pull the upset and send Texas Tech to KC for some barbequed Tiger.

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: #22 Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #11 Georgia, Saturday 12:00pm CBS
DanGo: After falling far behind the Gators in the SEC East, the Dawgs have silently played their way to a 9-2 record, losing only to the two better teams in the SEC: Florida and Bama. Georgia Tech is going to have to rely on Virginia to hand them their ACC Coastal title, but GT’s losses to VT, UVa and UNC raise some questions about how effective the “vaunted” triple-option really is. The Dawgs pull it out in the 2nd half.
DanGr: This is not the year Uga fans had hoped for, but they at least they can wash down the disappointment with another win over the Yellow Jackets. Not so fast, my friend. Paul Johnson makes another statement with his totally awesome triple option with flexbone filling as his team snaps their seven game losing streak to the Bulldogs.
[This really was DanGr, and not Lee Corso, writing this. - Ed.]

Commonwealth Cup: Virginia (+8) at Virginia Tech, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN
DanGo: This one’s pretty simple. The Hokies need to win to go to Tampa next weekend. The Wahoos need to win to become bowl-eligible, and possibly for Al Groh to keep his job. We’re not sure what color Al Groh’s chair is, but I hear Phil Fulmer is looking for employment… Regardless, The Hokies’ defense will have no trouble with a team that could only put up 3 points against Clemson, and the Hokies can book their tickets to Tampa.

Civil War: #23 Oregon (+3) at #17 Oregon State, Saturday 7:00pm Versus
Chris: ESPN is saying that Jacquizzzzz Rogers won’t play, and his brother isn’t as fast. Ducks will break out some hideous new throbbing, electric-neon-yellow unis and find a way to win.
DanGr: The Beavers feel like a team of destiny, one that is destined to win its local Civil War. They are playing well in all phases of the game. Their defense will be the difference against the Sun Bowl-bound Ducks.

Backyard Brawl: #25 Pittsburgh (+3) at West Virginia, Friday 12:00pm No TV
DanGo: West Virginia can’t really drop two straight to The Mustache, can they?

Week 12 in the the SEC was mostly uneventful. The biggest upset was Vandy’s win over Kentucky, which wasn’t too much of a surprise, anyway. Of course, the world almost turned completely upside down when Troy jumped out to a big lead and held it into the fourth quarter against LSU, but the Tigers woke up and reassumed control just in time.

The Gators continued their savage pillaging of the East, running the ‘Cocks out of the Swamp 56-6. Once again, much of this was done with defense: besides another pick six for Nagurski finalist Brandon Spikes, turnovers set up a bunch of other Gator scores. It’s hard to understand why the Gators couldn’t play at least somewhat like this for their first four games; the way they’re playing now, don’t we think they’d hang more than 50 on Miami, Tennessee, and Ole Miss? Clearly something was mentally or spiritually wrong in that first third of the season, as no significant player changes have been made. Maybe Timmy just needed to look into the abyss of the Ole Miss loss to shake off the external pressure and start leading his offense the way he is now. He isn’t putting up Heisman numbers this year, but why should he? The Gates have weapons like Man Moody, Deonte Thompson, and Louis Murphy who are barely getting used right now; there aren’t enough footballs to spread around to all the ridiculous speed on that offense. Pity the BULLDOGS (thanks, DanGR!) of The Citadel this weekend. We’ll see if Gator back-up QB John Brantley can get 250 yards passing in that one.

Alabama shut down Miss State in workmanlike fashion, holding on to their deserved #1 ranking. Still, Alabama’s rep right now has been almost entirely made by the first half in Athens against the Dawgs. The Tide’s big win against Clemson doesn’t look nearly as good now, and the rest of their wins also lack the splash of those by the Big Three of the Southern Division of the Big 12 or the Gators. Still, flashiness of wins won’t matter if they can claim the Iron Bowl for the first time since 2001 and beat the Gators in Atlanta. The way the Gators are playing right now, however, leads me to figure that they’ll be 15-17 point favorites on the Tide right now, though that line could change based on the next couple weeks.

The Auburn-Georgia game lost some luster this year, but it was a great, old-timey SEC game to watch. Lots of hard hitting and off-tackle running. Georgia’s D really dug deep to stop Auburn’s last drive and hold on for the win. It will be interesting to see what kind of offense Georgia fields next year, after Stafford and Moreno are gone (as I assume they will be).

This week’s SEC slate is pretty thin, with nearly half the conference on hiatus. Miss State hosts Arkansas in a game only the family members of players will care about, and Florida gets to ritually sacrifice, dismember, and devour Citadel. Real SEC fans will be interested in the last two games, however: LSU hosts an Ole Miss team that is very interested in making a statement to recruits about its bright future, and Vanderbilt gets to dump the final load of manure on the career of Phil Fulmer, which presumably they’ll do with glee. In the newly christened “Magnolia Bowl” (a name developed jointly by student bodies at LSU and Ole Miss to name their rivalry), I’m guessing we’ll see an Ole Miss win for the first time since 2001, and in the Nashville we’ll see a 19-13 grinder win for the ‘Dores.

What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.

There was shock at lunchtime when the news broke that Tommy Bowden was being relieved of his duties as the head coach of the Clemson University Tigers football team.  He and athletic director Terry Don Phillips agreed to end Bowden’s tenure in a Monday morning meetng.  Offensive coordinator Rob Spence was also given his release.  Wide receivers coach Dabo Swinney becomes the interim head coach and a serious candidate to rip off the interim tag should he resurrect this season.

How do we make sense of this?  It was a result that was expected to happen sooner or later.  Bowden had a good but not great time at Clemson.  He always had satisfactory seasons from the standpoint of not being bad, but never did win a conference championship.  He appeared to save his job many times by following swoons in one half of a season with soars in the next half-season.  He always managed to keep his job, despite the feeling that the administration would finally decide enough is enough and to the puzzlement of many an observer.  He was going to be separated from his job, but no one saw today’s events coming.

What was it that finally did Tommy Boy in?  In my offseason look at coaches’ job security, I put Bowden on the yellow chair, meaning he needs to show some really good results this season, but he will not be ousted unless the Tigers have a losing season.  Little did I know that six months later, the Tigers would be picked to win the ACC and to begin the season in the top ten of the polls.  They were being talked about as an outside national championship contender.  The expectations were perhaps the highest in the Bowden era, which means they were super duper unrealistic given Bowden’s history in Clemson.  Uh oh.

The expectations started to fall apart as soon as the season got underway.  They got smacked around on national television by Alabama to start the season.  We came to find out that Alabama is really good this season, so there was no shame in being blown out like that.  As the weeks went on, the Tigers were forgiven for their poor perfrmance.  They may not have been in the running for the national championship, but their goals were still in front of them.

Then came their matchup with Maryland.  The Tigers got off to a fast start, being up 17-6 at halftime, but they failed to put the hammer down, got smacked in the face themselves, then folded to give up a three-point loss at home to the most inconsistent team in the country.  That was the same Maryland team that is still receiving invective for its 31-0 loss at Virginia the following week.  The national championship asperations were now completely gone.  However, the conference championship was still very much doable.

Now winning the conference is doubtful after their weak performance in the game against Wake Forest.  Only six games into a season of high expectations, the Tigers sit at 3-3.  Tommy’s Tigers have a history of wilting under pressure, so there is no confidence they will be able to right this sinking ship after such a high start to the season.  So what ever shall he do?

Bowden started by demoting team captain Cullen Harper and giving much hyped Willy Korn the starting quarterback job on Friday.  It is a move that smacks of despiration and a lack of trust.  In fact, upon seeing the first reports of Bowden’s demise and the quotes from Harper and his father, I thought the wrong wire had been clipped and the quarterback had gotten his coach fired for betraying him.  It is not the first time it has happened, so I thought that was the dynamic.  However much venom Harper is carrying over being thrown under the bus, it turned out not to be that kind of job.  Instead, the fall of Cullen was just a subtle sign that something else could be happening soon, since what happened to him is just what desperate coaches do.

It turned out it was the stale state of the program that finally led to Tommy’s downfall.  No doubt Bowden will get another chance in the near future.  He will take some time off, work in television for a bit, then pop up somewhere else to rehabilitate his career.  He will not go the way of bait shop manager Bob Gibson.  But it is done for now.  Even his father saw it coming, as he thought his son “felt like it was fixin’ to happen; he felt like it was inevitable.”  Bobby Bowden also had perhaps the best quote of the day on his son’s fate: “At least I don’t have to worry about him beating me again.”

Calls for blood have been sated – Clemson’s head coach has been relieved of his duties, effective immediately. This comes after he turned, to my knowledge, a unanimous top 10 team in the pre-season, favorites for the ACC title and a national title contender into a 3-3 also-ran. This not only made the natives restless, but his own players – including his starting QB, Cullen Harper, who Bowden blamed for offensive issues. Post firing, Harper said that Bowden “got what he deserved.” I can’t exactly disagree with Harper here, either.

So, this basically admits what we all knew – that the Clemson season is a complete wash after such high hopes. Clemson will likely be fortunate to reach eight wins and a mid-level bowl.

The Tigers are joined on the list of legitimate former national title contenders who have seen their hopes dissipate halfway through this season by West Virginia and Auburn, along with more arguable teams like South Carolina and Arizona State.

Hey look, Chris won the week! Picking against the chalk and conventional wisdom proved fruitful, bringing him within four games of .500 for the season.

There’s a great slate of matchups this week; there will be contenders eliminated after this week. Hopefully none of them will have to face Nitro in the Joust.

Clemson (+2.5) at #21 Wake Forest, Thursday 7:30pm ESPN
Chris: Wake Forest will beat Clemson because Clemson is coached by Tommy Bowden, who may distracted by how good his players look in their tight pants.

#4 LSU (+6) at #11 Florida, Sat 8:00pm CBS
Chris: Florida will slip by LSU by single digits on the strength of some long runs by Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps and strong linebacker play which will limit LSU’s run game (a little) and force them to try to win through the air, not their strong suit this year.
DanGr: The Gator loss to Ole Miss revealed some cracks in the foundation. The Tigers will turn those cracks into breaches behind the steady play of newfound prime quarterback Jarrett Lee. Granted, LSU is not without flaws, which Florida will use to keep this close until the end. The oddsmakers pick LSU to lose by 6, which they will be doing before a successful nutjob, brass ball Les Miles decision in the final minute.

#5 Texas (+6.5) at #1 Oklahoma, Sat 12:00pm ABC
DanGo: IThe Big 12 has begun to resemble the NBA All-Star game — who the hell plays defense at these things? Rice and Tulsa combined for 1030 yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns and Sooners surpassed that.
DanGr: The Sooners always come to play hard in Dallas, something Texas can only surmount when the Longhorns are clearly superior on paper. Some things never change. Add another notch–not to mention a ten gallon hat–to the belt of Bob Stoops.

South Carolina (-1) at Kentucky, Sat 12:30pm Raycom
DanGo: South Carolina may be a slim favorite in this game, but the ‘Cats have peaked more recently, even though they were given a bit of a boost by Leigh Tiffin’s leg. Kentucky wins in a squeaker.

Notre Dame (+7.5) at #22 North Carolina, Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN
DanGr: North Carolina is ranked for the first time since 2001. Notre Dame is not ranked, which is just as good since if they were they would be called overrated. Both teams are greatly improved over last year, but only one of them can win this week. Bruce Carter will be the different for the Tar Heels as he blocks at least one punt to make the difference in a close game.

#6 Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin, Sat 8:00pm ESPN
DanGo: Wisconsin’s chances for legitimacy disappeared after back-to-back close losses to Michigan and Ohio State on consecutive weekends. Penn State is for real, and Wisconin will drop three straight.

#17 Oklahoma State (+14) at #3 Missouri, Sat 8:00pm ESPN2
Chris: Missouri will beat the living hell out of Oklahoma State, though the Cowboys will score some points on Mizzou’s defense. Mike Van Gundy will then call his brothers Stan and Jeff to cry, even though he’s a man who’s now 41.

Going into week four of the season, we’re left with nine teams undefeated out of the smaller conferences. Next week, we’re guaranteed to have it shortened to at least just eight teams with Air Force visiting Utah. Let’s take a look at the nine’s prospective chances this weekend.

East Carolina, 3-0

Two impressive wins to open the season is quickly followed by a tough road game against Tulane.

Next game: @ North Carolina State. NC State has looked pretty inept offensively against their real competition, though Clemson and South Carolina have solid defenses. If East Carolina can shut down the Wolf Pack, they’ll look more like a legitimate team than they already do. I think they’ll survive this weekend.

Tulsa, 2-0

The other Conference USA team on this list, Tulsa is something of a sleeper in this list of sleepers – they have talent and a schedule that should not be too challenging. They shouldn’t have too many issues until late October comes.

Next game: New Mexico. NM is pretty harmless, so this shouldn’t be an issue for the Golden Hurricanes.

Ball State, 3-0

The lone representative of the MAC, Ball State is in the midst of changing from a long-time doormat to a conference contender. Jason Whitlock predicted them to go undefeated this year, and it could happen with sufficient luck. The game at Indiana, along with closing the season out against Miami of Ohio, Central and Western Michigan won’t make this easy, though.

Next game: @ Indiana. This should be a pretty major challenge – it’s a rivalry road game, which is rarely easy. The level of competition has not been very tough so far this year, so the Cardinals might not be properly prepared, but I still give them the edge over a mediocre Indiana team.

Air Force, 3-0

An easy schedule is the reason Air Force is here. They struggled on the road against Houston, and Houston’s not particularly good.

Next game: Utah. This is a Buster elimination game, and I will be shocked if Air Force is the one left standing.

TCU, 3-0

Thanks to Utah and BYU’s big wins, it’s expected that TCU is overlooked here. Don’t sleep on the Horned Frogs; for starters, that sounds very uncomfortable, and they could be the best team in the Mountain West. Keep an eye on them

Next game: @ SMU. No reason this should be a problem for TCU.

Utah, 3-0

After getting a big road win at Michigan, Utah has dismantled UNLV and Utah State. There’s a lot of talent on this team, and they’re a favorite of mine to flirt with the BCS.

Next game: @ Air Force. If you can win at Michigan – even a depleted Michigan – you can win at Air Force. They’ll go to 4-0.

BYU, 3-0

Well, that’s one way to make a statement. UCLA, who beat Tennessee (thanks in no small part to a fair share of luck), losing by 59 points in a shut out is pretty shameful for the Bruins, but a definite point of pride for the Cougars. No reason this should stop this weekend.

Next game: Wyoming. This should be a fairly easy win for the Cougars.

Troy, 2-0

Our token Sun Belt team! Not much to say here – wins against Middle Tennessee State and Alcorn State is not much to be proud of. Staying on this list due to a delayed game against LSU does nothing to help the cause.

Next game: @ Ohio State. OSU didn’t look very good against USC, but Troy is nothing like their west coast Trojan brethren. Ohio State should win going away, reducing this list by one more team.

Boise State, 2-0

Competing for the role as this year’s Boise State is… Boise State! A good win against Bowling Green precedes a huge match up this week.

Next game: @ Oregon. If I was a betting man, I’d place money on the Ducks. Boise State is a legit team, though, and a win wouldn’t be surprising. Still, I favor Oregon in a close one.

So, my official prediction is that this watch list will be reduced to six teams after tomorrow’s games are done.

Here is the follow-up column to last week’s future tense quintet,
brought to you in fantastic, high definition hindsight.

1.  Which teams are terrible. The Football Championship Subdivision
had its weakest opening weekend in years, needing to wait until after
midnight ET to claim its sole victim.  That victim was San Diego
State, which fell to Cal Poly on a game ending field goal.  Either the
Football Bowl Subdivision is stronger this year against their little
brothers, or the bottom of the barrel FBS schools chose their prey
wisely.

Among the highlighted games, Eastern Michigan obliterated Indiana
State, Marshall clobbered Illinois State, and Duke smashed James Mad.
San Jose State needed a last minute touchdown to escape from the jaws
of UC Davis.  Other close games, which should send up red flags for
the schools in question, were Delaware at Maryland (14-7 Terps),
McNeese State at North Carolina (35-27 Tar Heels), and Western
Illinois at Arkansas (28-24 Hogs).

2.  Which Division I football subdivision champion is superior in a
one-game series. While Appalachian State is still the favorite to
rock and roll all the way to Chattanooga, this game was no contest, as
the Bayou Bengals of LSU rolled to a 41-13 victory over the
Mountaneers.  Apparently LSU turned the tables and decided to put the
target on Appy’s back to avoid any chance of a Michigan-type upset.
It also helps to have a positive talent disparity, which will only
bring up again the old canard about the speed differences between the
SEC and Big 11.

3.  Which BCS Busters look good, which BCS Busters look shaky, and
which BCS Busters are out. All three teams highlighted in this space
are 1-0 in their quest to become America’s Next Top Mid-Major.  Utah
took a big lead at the Big House and held serve at the end to defeat
Michigan.  Fresno State crushed Rutgers in their first ever trip to
the east coast.  East Carolina employed vintage Beamer Ball to play
rude host to Virginia Tech.  A few more teams are expected to throw
their hats in the ring next week once they too knock off someone from
Les Six.

4.  Who gets an early lead in the conference races. Troy took early
control of the Sun Belt by going up to Murfreesboro and smacking
Middle Tennessee State.  Oregon State fumbled away its chance at a
come-from-behind win at Stanford.  New Mexico played dead at home
against opossum-hunter TCU.  Grain won over meat in the SMU-Rice
matchup.  Oregon dry cleaned Washington in the House of Quack.
Finally, in a game this column overlooked last week, Tulsa went to
Birmingham and did not love the gov’nuh, beating up on hometown UAB.

5.  Which good and potentially great teams can walk the walk. Clemson
made the wrong kind of statement at the Georgia Dome, running with
their tails between their legs up I-85 to escape the resurgent Crimson
Tide.  The expectations are now going to explode in Tuscaloosa.  The
next big thing is a matchup with Georgia at the end of the month.
In St. Louis, both Illinois and Missouri looked good, but the Tigers
took the early lead and left with the Braggin’ Rights.  Finally, the
ultimate game of the weekend saw UCLA turn Tennessee’s California
Dreamin’ into a nightmare as they knocked off the Vols in overtime.