Pick ‘Em – Week 5



So, it’s late, and I have to be up in about 5 hours, so here’s the long and short of it.

Chris kicked ass again, the rest of us are beginning to fall behind.

The pressure to atone for last week’s guest picks falls on the shoulders of Mike Dame. Mike, once upon a time, was Chris’ freshman roommate in college (and somehow lived to tell the tale). A former AP poll and Heisman voter, Mike is also a former employee of Virginia Tech. His most memorable moment as a sportswriter, in his own words:

When Norm Sloan pointed at me in a press conference in October 1989 after I reported in The Independent Florida Alligator that his firing was imminent. “It’s like throwing chum in the water, and you frenzy like a bunch of sharks!” Sloan famously said of the media. “I’m not going anywhere!” Two days later, UF announced Sloan’s “resignation.” (God rest his soul, because I loved Norm Sloan.)

And with that, we move on to Week 5.

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred Guest
Last Week / YTD 6-2 / 18-14 5-3 / 17-15 3-5 / 16-16 4-4 / 17-15 3-5 / 15-17
#22 Michigan (+3.5) at Michigan State Michigan State Michigan Michigan State Michigan Michigan State
#4 Louisiana State (+3.5) at #19 Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Louisiana State
Washington (+12.5) at Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame
#25 Georgia Tech (-6) at Mississippi State Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Mississippi State
Auburn (+2.5) at Tennessee Auburn Auburn Auburn Tennessee Auburn
#7 USC (-4.5) at #24 California California USC USC California California
#8 Oklahoma (-7) at #17 Miami Oklahoma Miami Oklahoma Miami Oklahoma
Middle Tennessee State at Troy Troy Troy Middle Tennessee State Troy Middle Tennessee State

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 5’ »

Pick ‘Em – Week 4



After three weeks, the entirety of our pickers are within one game of each other. I don’t think I’ve seen this much parity since the 2008 ACC. Is that a good thing?

Last week’s guest picker, Craig Barker, took a couple gambles and kept the guest spot at a perfect .500 record.

This week’s guest is James Quintong. James is an editor and occasional writer for ESPN.com’s fantasy section and also was on the original staff at CNNSI.com (now SI.com). He was a longtime member of TRASH before moving to other side of the buzzer, and is currently part of the reigning TRASHionals champions. In short, he’s everything that the good chunks of the blogosphere and quizbowl world apparently dislike. Oh yeah, he helped form Northwestern’s quizbowl team back in the mid-’90s, right around the time the Wildcats went to the Rose Bowl, and also graduated the same year as current head coach Pat Fitzgerald (but isn’t sure if that makes feel old or young).

Want to join us as a guest? Leave a comment with an email address, and we’ll get in touch.

On to week 4!

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred Guest
Last Week / YTD 6-2 / 12-12 6-2 / 12-12 5-3 / 13-11 5-3 / 13-11 4-4 / 12-12
Minnesota (-1) at Northwestern Minnesota Minnesota Northwestern Northwestern Northwestern
#22 North Carolina (+3) at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
Southern Miss (+13.5) at #20 Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas
#6 California (-5.5) at Oregon Oregon California California California California
#9 Miami (FL) (-3) at #11 Virginia Tech Miami Virginia Tech Miami Miami Miami
Pittsburgh (+1) at North Carolina State Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh NC State Pittsburgh
#15 Texas Christian (+2.5) at Clemson Texas Christian Clemson Clemson Clemson Clemson
Texas Tech (+1) at #17 Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston

Read on for commentary and analysis. Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Week 4’ »

Ten Things We Will Learn About the Pac-10



1.  Whether Arizona will take the next step under Mike Stoops. It took five years, but the Wildcats finally broke through and ended the Pac-10’s longest bowl drought.  With that Stoops earned some well-earned job security…for now.  His sixth season is a time of change, as the face of the program for the past four years, quarterback Willie Tuitama, has exhausted his eligibility.  While the program is in no danger of descending into the chaos of the reign of John Mackovic (who is currently the coach of the U.S. national football team), it may be inevitable that they will struggle to earn a bowl berth in 2009.  For the good of the program, it may just be a hiccup on the way to the program’s first ever Rose Bowl in the next few years.

2.  Which Arizona State team will return in 2009: 2007 or 2008. Dennis Erickson’s first season with Sun Devils was a resounding success, as the vagabond coach parlayed an 8-0 start into a berth in the Holiday Bowl.  However, the big start only resulted in greater disappointment in the second year as the Sun Devils endured a six-game losing streak.  They managed to right the ship against the carrion of the Pac-10, but then got stomped by rival Arizona to stay at home for the holidays.  Star quarterback Rudy Carpenter is gone and the replacements are none too appetizing, especially with the transfer out of Jack Elway.  The program looked to be getting an upgrade by acquiring Erickson after tossing Dirk Koetter, but his third season will go a long way toward determining whether regime chance was the wise choice in the long-term.

3.  Whether California ends its 51-year Rose Bowl drought. If there were any year to finally break through to the roses, this is it.  The Golden Bears return tailback Jahvid Best and quarterback Kevin Riley and an excellent secondary.  After a moderately stiff non-conference schedule featuring Maryland and Minnesota, the meat of the schedule arrives, as they face USC at home and Oregon on the road to start conference play.  A 5-0 start would put Cal in fantastic position to win the conference championship and, perhaps, contend for a bit more than that.  They might be more motivated to avoid having to play catch-up should they start in the hole in conference play.

4.  If Oregon can bring back 2001. Nevermind that Joey Harrington had the misfortune to be selected by Matt Millen in the draft. He engineered a fantastic season that saw the Ducks head to the Fiesta Bowl.  Since then, though, it has been all USC in the Pac 10.  Recently promoted head coach Chip Kelly hopes to change that.  If the Ducks can survive a trip to Berkeley, the Rose Bowl is there for the taking with USC coming to Eugene.  It is a possibility that grows brighter should the Ducks also survive matches with the cream of Le Petit Cinq, Boise State (on the smurf turf) and Utah (at Autzen).  Jeremiah Masoli leads the way for a team that has a number of question marks, particularly the offensive line and receivers, that need to be overcome.  Can the Ducks stamp their authority on the Pac 10?

5.  Whether Oregon State can have a fast start for once. The Beavers had a miserable start to the 2008 season, dropping a game to a mediocre Stanford squad in the opener then getting smacked by Penn State in the eastern time zone.  However, the Ducks began to right the ship in game number four with their second consecutive home upset of USC, a win that unwittingly put them in the driver’s seat for the remainder of the season.  Granted, this was not the driver’s seat of a Ferrari, but a Yugo.  The confidence was low that this team could actually do it, but then something funny happened: they started to string together a fantastic winning streak.  They reached 7-1 before their dreams of the Rose Bowl for the Beavers since 1964 were crushed in the Civil War.

The non-conference schedule is kinder this season, with the toughest challenge likely to be a visit from last season’s surprise Big East champion, Cincinnati.  So the Beavers will likely get off to a good start.  However, they have the misfortune of paying visits to all three of USC, Cal, and Oregon.  So it goes.  Mike Riley consistently puts together some very good teams, so this is unlikely to be the last time Oregon State is not rated highly at the beginning of the season.  Could they keep the momentum of a fast start going?

6.  Whether Stanford will go to its first bowl game since 2001. The pieces are coming together.  After the devastating Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris administrations, the program is finally headed in the right direction under Jim Harbaugh.  The Cardinal are breaking in a new quarterback in Andrew Lick, but the schedule is not too bad if they can withstand the growing pains.  They will probably need to win six of their first eight games, because the finishing kick is brutal: Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame.  Stanford is sort of still living off that USC win two years ago, so they need to tag another superior opponent if they are to be taken seriously as a program.

7.  How much UCLA improves and measures up against the Trojans. Rick Neuheisel promised the end of the USC monopoly in 2008.  If he is going to live up to his words, he is going to need to lead upward a team that was dreadful offensively in 2008.  Exhibit A: Getting smoked 59-0 by BYU, which is terrible no matter how good BYU was last season.  Exhibit B: Kevin Craft, who threw an absurd four pick-sixes interceptions returned for a touchdown against Arizona State, a mediocre team that made the Bruins look like Washington State.  Craft finished the year with 20 interceptions and has rightfully been demoted in favor of redshirt freshman Kevin Prince, so the offensive should run a bit smoother.  Can this team scrounge up enough wins to go bowling?  Can this team keep up with their cardinal-clad crosstown rivals in their November 28 meeting?

8.  Whether USC’s run at the top of the Pac 10 will come to an end. While there is plenty of positive talk about Oregon and California making a run at the crown, most of the talk is negative.  Namely, whether USC will fall off the perch.  That is only warranted, considering to be the man you have got to beat the man.  Nevermind that USC lost a boatload of talent to the NFL; they have a boatload of talent ready to step in.  The loss of wideout Ronald Johnson will be significant, but if someone can step up to catch some balls, all will be fine in Trojanland. But the main attraction, the main blood in the water, is at the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Matt Barkley has been deemed The Man at QB by Pete Carroll.  Can the Trojans’ pursuers take advantage of the potential growing pains?  Will someone outside of South Central keep them out of the BCS?  Will USC be deposed as king of the mountain in the Pac 10?

9.  How much Washington improves. After a 0-12 season, there is no direction to go but up.  Whether that upward movement is two wins, four wins, or (gasp!) a bowl game is a question of how high new coach Steve Sarkisian and returning quarterback Jake Locker can pull this program.  Wins really do not matter; this team just needs to be competitive in the games that matter, especially conference games, and start aiming for a bowl game in 2010.  A good measuring stick will be the Apple Cup game, one in which they lost to a team that was by most accounts even worse than the Huskies.

10.  Whether Washington State will bring up the rear in the Pac 10. The eleven losses shine much brighter than the two wins, the 60-point waxings defining the first season of the Paul Wulff administration.  Like their cross-state rivals, they cannot go down much further, but their recovery process could be more painful.  With no FCS teams on the schedule, there are no easy wins anywhere, meaning what was Washington’s fate in 2008 could be Washington State’s in 2009.  Can Wulff defy the naysayers and finish higher than last in conference?

What Do the Jan. 2 Bowl Results Tell Us?



Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot.

Ole Miss didn’t just beat Texas Tech, they handled them on both sides of the ball. This is the same TT offense that scored a ton of points on Texas and got over 30 on Oklahoma, but the Rebels got tons of pressure on Harrell and gouged them with the run game. Does this tell us that Florida will be able to run consistently on Oklahoma and get pressure on Bradford with just the front four, allowing LBs and DBs to stay in coverage?

But wait–what about Utah dominating Bama? The Utes got seven sacks on JP Wilson and locked down Glen Coffee in ways that the Gators clearly couldn’t.

Maybe none of this tells us too much. I know I was personally annoyed at the ass-kissing that Brent Musburger and my wife’s favorite sportscaster, Kirk Herbstreit, laid on the Trojans, continually suggesting that USC had gotten screwed and would frighten either Oklahoma or UF. Sure, it sucks that USC lost the one-loss beauty pageant, but their loss was indeed to Oregon State, a team that got whipped by Oregon and also lost to Utah, who is most obviously the team that has gotten screwed this year. And now we hear a lot about how the Pac 10 went undefeated in the bowls, but look at the opponents: OSU beat Pitt in the snorefest of all snorefests, Oregon won a very entertaining game over Okie State, though after TT’s loss that may not look quite as impressive, Arizona beat an overrated BYU, Cal beat a lackluster Miami team, and USC earned the honor of laying the traditional holiday ass-whupping on the Big 10 champ. Big deal.

Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2



Certainly not the way most of us wanted to start off bowl week – being reminded that it’s easy to underestimate teams we haven’t seen all season. Fred pads his lead a little more, and Chris manages to spend two whole weeks out of the basement.

On to the second portion of our three-week garden party.

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred
Last Week 2-5 3-4 2-5 4-3
Year to Date (60-52) (61-51) (59-53) (67-45)
12/26/2008 Motor City Bowl: Florida Atlantic (+7) vs. Central Michigan (Detroit, MI) Florida Atlantic Central Michigan Central Michigan Central Michigan
12/27/2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia (-1.5) vs. North Carolina (Charlotte, NC) West Virginia West Virginia North Carolina West Virginia
12/27/2008 Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin (+6) vs. Florida State (Orlando, FL) Florida State Florida State Florida State Florida State
12/27/2008 Emerald Bowl: Miami (FL) (+8) vs. California (San Francisco, CA) Miami California California California
12/28/2008 Independence Bowl: Northern Illinois (+1) vs. Louisiana Tech (Shreveport, LA) Louisiana Tech Northern Illinois Louisiana Tech Northern Illinois
12/29/2008 papajohns.com Bowl: NC State (+7) vs. Rutgers (Birmingham, AL) Rutgers NC State Rutgers Rutgers
12/29/2008 Valero Alamo Bowl: #21 Missouri (-12.5) vs. #23 Northwestern (San Antonio, TX) Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri
12/30/2008 Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland (+2) vs. Nevada (Boise, ID) Maryland Maryland Nevada Maryland
12/30/2008 Texas Bowl: Rice (-2.5) vs. Western Michigan (Houston, TX) Rice Rice Rice Western Michigan
12/30/2008 Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: #13 Oklahoma State (-3) vs. #17 Oregon (San Diego, CA) Oregon Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Oregon
12/31/2008 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (-3.5) vs. Air Force (Fort Worth, TX) Houston Houston Houston Houston
12/31/2008 Brut Sun Bowl: Oregon State (-2.5) vs. #20 Pittsburgh (El Paso, TX) Oregon State Oregon State Oregon State Pittsburgh
12/31/2008 Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: #24 Boston College (-3.5) vs. Vanderbilt (Nashville, TN) Vanderbilt Boston College Boston College Boston College
12/31/2008 Insight Bowl: Kansas (-9) vs. Minnesota (Tempe, AZ) Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas
12/31/2008 Chick-fil-a Bowl: LSU (+4) vs. #14 Georgia Tech (Atlanta, GA) Louisiana State Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Georgia Tech

Commentary and analysis after the jump.
Continue reading ‘Pick ‘Em – Bowl Week Extravaganza – Part 2’ »

F&D Pick ‘Em – Week 11



What’s this? Chris wins the week AGAIN?!?!?!

Also, DanGr finishes one game away from being our first 0-7.

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred
Year to Date (34-36) (37-33) (38-32) (41-29)
#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU LSU Alabama Alabama LSU
#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech Oklahoma State Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech
#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah Utah TCU TCU TCU
#21 California (+21) at #7 USC USC USC USC USC
#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina Georgia Tech North Carolina Georgia Tech North Carolina
Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State Florida State Florida State Florida State Florida State
Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia

#1 Alabama (-3) at #16 LSU, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: I hate that it’s true, but I want/need Bama to win as a Gator fan, but outside of the Georgia and Clemson games, they really haven’t been very impressive against average competition. They’re a loss waiting to happen. And LSU has a ton of pride they want to salvage.
DanGr: Georgia crushed LSU. Alabama crushed Georgia. By the law of transitivity: roll tide!

#9 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at #2 Texas Tech, Sat 8pm ABC
Chris: This will be a super game to watch, with tons of passing and points. I pick the Cowboys purely on hunch.
DanGo: The economy may not be strong, but this Red Raider offense is unbelievable. Not many teams can hang with them for 60 minutes, but Oklahoma State will give it their damnedest.

#12 TCU (-2) at #8 Utah, Thursay 8:00pm CBS College Sports
DanGr: If you want an indication of how good this TCU team is, look at its margins of victory, especially compared to those of the same teams against BYU and Utah. They simply manhandled BYU a month ago. The Horned Frogs are not going to kick Utah to the curb so easily, but their defense will lead the way and their offense will make sure this one is over midway through the fourth quarter.

#21 California (+21) at #7 USC, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Chris: Just like every year

#20 Georgia Tech (+3.5) at #19 North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 Raycom
DanGr: The totally awesome triple option will get the job done for the Ramblin Wreck, while the defense will leave UNC flat on their back.

Clemson (+5.5) at #22 Florida State, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
Chris: Bobby gets payback on them what done his boy wrong!

Cincinnati (+7) at #25 West Virginia, Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU
It’s a concensus, the Bearcats don’t stand a chance on the road.

F&D Pick ‘Em – Week 10



Dan Greenstein wins the week, going an impressive 6-1 to clear DanGo by a full game.

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred
Year to Date (29-34) (35-28) (37-26) (38-25)
#1 Texas (-4) at #7 Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Texas Texas Tech
#24 Oregon (+2.5) at California Oregon California California Oregon
#8 Florida (-6.5) at #6 Georgia Florida Florida Georgia Florida
Miami (FL) (+2.5) at Virginia Miami (FL) Virginia Virginia Miami (FL)
#16 Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech Florida State Florida State Florida State Florida State
Pittsburgh (+5) at Notre Dame Pittsburgh Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame
Northwestern (+7.5) at Minnesota Northwestern Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota

#1 Texas (-4.0) at #7 Texas Tech, Saturday 8:00pm ABC
Fred: Madden scoring in this game, folks. I’m looking forward to it, if only so I can have a passing-induced seizure that makes Porygon look kid friendly.
DanGr: This is the biggest test the Longhorns will face in 2008. The game will come down to how well the defenses can stop the offenses. Texas has the better defense, so they will prevail in a shootout that comes down to the last five minutes.

#24 Oregon (+2.5) at California, Saturday 3:30pm ABC
Fred: Did you know that Donald Duck is one of the mascots of the Ducks, and Disney is signed on with this? The More You Know (NBC tone).
DanGr: The Golden Bears will grab momentum and end Oregon’s conference hopes before a sharp impulse next week at USC ends Cal’s conference hopes. It will be close, but Cal will lay better at home than Oregon will play on the road.

#8 Florida (-6.5) at #6 Georgia, Saturday 3:30pm CBS
Chris: The big story here is going to be the Gator pass rush and run defense; the former will keep Stafford off balance, so the question is whether the latter can slow Moreno. I think they can, and I think that Demps and Rainey will break off some long ones in the second half to lead the Gators to a comfortable win. But yeah, like you’d expect me to say anything else.
DanGr: It will be a shootout between the teams that hung half a hundred on LSU. Georgia will come closest to repeating that feat as the Matt Stafford-A.J. Green connection makes the difference.

Miami (FL) (+2.5) at Virginia, Saturday 12:00pm Raycom Sports
DanGo: I don’t know what’s going on in Charlottesville, but somehow these guys have moved themselves to the top of the Gordian Knot that is the ACC Coastal Division. The Wahoos are 4-1 at home this year, and I don’t see any reason for that to change.
Fred: At some point Virginia has to be terrible like they’re supposed to be.
Right? Right?

#16 Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech, Saturday 3:30 ABC/ESPN
DanGo: Another ranked ACC team is the underdog versus an unranked conference foe. The ‘Noles are probably better than everyone gives them credit for; their defense played well against Virginia Tech last week, especially against the run, and the Yellow Jackets are averaging only about 115 passing yards per game. Look for the Florida sweep this week with a win in Atlanta.

Pittsburgh (+5) at Notre Dame, Saturday 2:30 NBC
Chris: No analysis: I just hate the Domers.
Fred: This is more of a “holy hell Pitt’s a mess” pick than a “yeaaaaaaaaaaah Notre Dame” pick.

Northwestern (+7.5) at Minnesota, Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2
We’re all just taking a blind pick at this one; there’s really not a lot of positive things worth commenting about for either team.

F&D Pick ‘Em – Week 6



Memphis and Florida State make the difference, pushing Fred out front to win the week (again).

Only one game between ranked teams this week in the pick ‘em, but lots of close games. In the words of Keith Jackson, “Whoa Nellie!”

Author Chris DanGo DanGr Fred
Year to Date (13-22) (19-16) (21-14) (23-12)
#7 Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech
Florida State (+2) at Miami (FL) Miami Miami Miami Florida State
Rice (+16) at Tulsa Tulsa Tulsa Tulsa Tulsa
Illinois (+2.5) at Michigan Illinois Michigan Michigan Michigan
#14 Ohio State (-1) at #18 Wisconsin Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State Ohio State
Navy (+5) at Air Force Navy Air Force Air Force Air Force
Arizona State (+9) at California California California Arizona State California

This week’s featured commentator is DanGr – mostly because he wrote more than anyone else.

#7 Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State, Sat 3:30pm ABC
The Wildcats have done nothing to impress me thus far. That said, the Red Raiders have done nothing to impress me thus far. However, Texas Tech has the much better quarterback working in the much better offense. This one will be a shootout blowout that Graham Harrell will ensure will be over by the end of the third quarter.

Florida State (+2) at Miami (FL), Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2
Florida State’s offense showed some life last week, but Colorado is no Miami. The Miami defense will keep the Seminoles down, while the Hurricane offense will do enough to win a defensive struggle.

Rice (+16) at Tulsa, Sat 8pm CBS College
Do you think this game will be the highest scoring tilt in the Football Bowl Subdivision this year? You better believe it. The Golden Hurricane will remain undefeated because their offense has a higher degree of prolificity than the offense of the Owls. However, this will not be over until deep into the fourth quarter when Tulsa finally pulls away.

Illinois (+2.5) at Michigan, Sat 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2
Both teams had a good Week 5, with Michigan coming up big against Wisconsin and Illinois having a good but ultimately losing showing at Penn State. I just have the feeling that the Wolverines are the hotter team right now; they will pull away late to secure victory. They are not better than Illinois right now, but they will be a month from now.

#14 Ohio State (-1) at #18 Wisconsin
Ohio State is back. They may not win the Big Ten this year (or will they?), but they have a winning combination with Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells that will get them back to the BCS Championship Game (in the near future) only to get smashed by some SEC team. They will show it at Camp Randall in a close win.

Navy (+5) at Air Force, Sat 4:00pm Versus
Oh noes! Both of these teams run the totally awesome triple option! How ever shall I decide? By taking the home team to end their five-game losing streak against the Midshipmen.

Arizona State (+9) at California, Sat 3:30pm ABC
Jeff Tedford reopened the quarterback competition this week after Kevin Riley played poorly against Colorado State. In addition, their top tailback is on the shelf. Uh oh. The Sun Devils are rested, steamed after getting crushed by Georgia, and have a no-questions, veteran quarterback in Rudy Carpenter who will rip apart the Golden Bears.

I Do NOT Refuse to Post about Signing Day!



Although my esteemed colleague Mr. Morlan understandably has a problem with “creepy old men staring down teenagers,” I, being sadly closer to the terms “creepy” and “old,” have no such compunction.

A lot of sports fans view the whole recruiting biz as pretty sleazy, perhaps especially now in the wake of the case of Kevin Hart, the HS senior from Reno who made up stories about being recruited by Cal and Oregon and even set up a press conference before suffering the humiliation of having to admit his deceit. And there is something off-putting about visiting fan sites and seeing crazed fans who seem more excited about recruiting victories in February than on-field wins in November. But the serious college football fan ignores signing day at his peril: plenty of evidence shows that, though a highly ranked recruiting class doesn’t guarantee success, it’s almost (almost!) guaranteed that your team can’t compete for the BCS title if it doesn’t bring in a consensus top-ten haul.

 According to CSTV’s rankings (just picking one–of course there are dozens of rankers out there), these were the top ten recruiting classes of 2004 (players entering college in the fall of 2004, and probably juniors/seniors this past season):

1. USC  2. LSU  3. FSU  4. Miami  5. Michigan  6. Oklahoma  7. Georgia  8. UF  9. Ohio St.  10. (tie) Texas/Tennessee

Here is the final AP poll from the 2007-8 season (with the CSTV 2004 recruiting class ranking in parentheses if the team didn’t appear above):

1. LSU  2. Georgia  3. USC  4. Missouri (21)  5. Ohio St.  6. West Va. (47) 7. Kansas (51) 8.  Oklahoma  9. Va. Tech (41–but note their 2005 class was #15)  10. Texas

This is highly unscientific, but it’s interesting (if not statistically significant) that six of the teams with top recruiting classes finished in the top ten four years later; Tennessee finished last season at 12 and UF at 13, meaning they were close as well. So the only two outliers from the 2004 recruiting rankings were FSU and Miami, two teams which have sort of flamed out the last couple years due to coaching stagnation and upheaval, respectively (among other things).

The four teams that made the top ten in 2007-8 without having top ten recruiting classes in 2004: Missouri, which had a good class in 2004 (#21) and rode a good qb and a great freshman wide receiver to some big wins; West Virginia and Virgina Tech, two schools which have (had in WVU’s case–sorry, Fred!) top-notch coaches and have become recent fixtures as football powers; and Kansas, a team which got hot and surprised people, which will always happen (and thank goodness–how boring would it get otherwise?).

Of course no one wins a national championship in February, but there’s a reason why some fixtures in the recruiting top ten in the 21st century (USC, OSU, Michigan, UF, Oklahoma, and LSU have all appeared in CSTV’s top ten recruiting classes at least four times thus far) are in the mix for the BCS title every year: they recruit well AND are well coached. Pretty common sense, and a good reason why creepy old guys like myself sweat out a bunch of 18-year-olds putting their signature on a piece of paper and faxing it to our alma maters.

 As Fred suggested, there will be big-time flameouts like Xavier Lee, and some two-star guys will compete for the Heisman. But I’ll bet that four years from now USC, Florida, Miami, LSU, Clemson and Alabama (though I will hope intensely that Saban fails) will be fighting for BCS title game berths. But not Notre Dame: even with a consensus #2 recruiting class they’ll find a way to muck it up.

Two More Underclassmen Enter Draft



California wide receiver DeSean Jackson and Oklahoma cornerback Reggie Smith both officially entered the draft today.

Jackson is a tremendous wide receiver prospect and should be the first one taken before we’re halfway through the first round. Smith is one of the top cornerbacks available and should be gone before the end of the second round. Both were strong decisions by each player, as it seems unlikely their draft values could increase any more.