Fourth and Dumb

Some ideas related to the projected formation of the Big 64, a collection of four 16-team conferences:

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

1.  Whether the Illinois of 2007 or the Illinois of 2008 will show up in 2009. After finding his way his freshman year, in 2007 Juice Williams led the way as the Fighting Illini jumped from the basement and punched Ohio State in the nose on the way to the Rose Bowl, where they got devoured by USC.  Granted, Williams had a great 2008, with almost 4000 yards of total offense and 27 touchdowns, but it was his 16 interceptions that played a major part in UIUC’s drop to 5-7, not to mention some personnel losses, notably Rashard Mendenhall.  For Ron Zook’s most heralded recruit, 2009 is the last chance to shoot for collegiate glory.  If he can cut down on his mistakes and rally his supporting cast, 2009 could be another high tide for Illini football.

2.  Whether Indiana is back to being the doormat of the Big Ten. When Indiana fulfilled Terry Hoeppner’s mantra of “Play 13″ in the season following his death, it seemed like Bill Lynch was on his way to making Indiana a respectable program.  However, 2008 was a disaster as the Hoosiers fell to the bottom of the conference, their lone win over a decent Northwestern squad.  2009 looks like it could be just as bad, as their major playmaker, Kellen Lewis, got kicked off the team.  It is up to quarterback Ben Chappell and a veteran offensive line to lead this team to respectability.

3.  Which tier the Iowa Hawkeyes attain in 2009. Kirk Ferentz has led an above average program ever since he overcame the growing pains of taking over from Hayden Fry, which the high points being shares of the Big Ten championship in 2002 and 2004.  However, since 2004, the team has been quite average, managing to make it to bowl games all but one year but not being in contention for the crown.  No more was this evident than last year, where they started 0-2 in conference to end their chances.  They showed their great potential when they upset Penn State, but the win could have been more meaningful for the Hawkeyes.  Amid persistant NFL rumors for Ferentz, the team tries to overcome the loss of Shonn Greene and retake its spot in the upper tier of the Big Ten.

4.  How well Michigan rebounds from that. That, of course, was the worst season in Wolverines history, completely demolishing Big Blue’s leadership as the most consistently good program in college football over the last 40 years.  Now comes year two under Rich Rodriguez, where anything less than a bowl game will set off any panic buttons that had not already been expunged by the shocking collapse.  A look to the south reveals a program recovering from similar turmoil a year removed.  That program, Notre Dame, comes to Ann Arbor in a litmus test of how much Michigan has improved over the spring.  While a loss to Notre Dame will not portend another bad season, a more in-depth reading of the game could portend whether the Wolverines are turning a corner or if they are vulnerable to pulling another Toledo under Rich Rod.

5.  Which direction Michigan State goes after an excellent 2008. Reversing a recent trend for the Spartans, MSU defeated everyone it was supposed to and lost to everyone they were supposed to.  Despite that, they had a chance for a share of the Big Ten title on the last weekend of conference play before they showed they were not up to the challenge of unseating Penn State in its house.  Can the Spartans climb higher, and perhaps challenge the big boys for the title for the first time in a decade?  They need to overcome many losses, notably quarterback Brian Hoyer and tailback Javon Ringer.  Mark Dantonio’s teams have a history of not dropping off a cliff like previous Spartan teams.  Can the latest talent step up enough to avoid a drop down the Big Ten standings?

6.  If Minnesota can build on its 2008 rebound season. If the 7-1 start seemed too good to be true, then FIFTEEN for you, because you are correct!  After a strong start to the year, with the sole blemish being a loss to Ohio State in which they were reasonably competitive, the bottom fell out and they lost their last five games.  The most galling loss was to their Little Brown Jug nemesis Michigan, which stomped them 29-6 at home, thus pissing away a chance to kick the Wolverines when they are down.

Alas, 2008 was a great improvement over 2007, and Tim Brewster sure hopes to continue the upward movement.  The Golden Gophers also move into a new stadium, TCF Bank Stadium, which should inspire them to a strong year.  It is doubtful they can break into the top tier of the conference this year, but that possibility gets a bit wider with a top of the conference in 2009.

7.  Whether Northwestern will go to back-to-back bowls for the second time ever. The first time was following the 1995 and 1996 seasons, when the defense was led by some guy called Pat Fitzgerald.  Heady times are here again for the Wildcats, but will they take advantage?  They need to replace quarterback C.J. Bacher, but the schedule is quite kind as long as they do not drop games to teams like Indiana as they did a year ago.  It would be a shock if this team was in contention for the Big Ten title, but it has happened before and it could happen again.

8. If Ohio State returns to the BCS. Along with Penn State, Ohio State is one of the conference’s two major contenders to advance to the BCS.  And while the Buckeyes have not fared well in those games as of late, they are still to be commended for going to four straight BCS bowls, including two title games.  So anything less than the BCS would be a disappointment.  It would be a major shock if the Buckeyes put up less than ten wins.  So we know this team is really good, but a major barometer will be their September 12 match with USC.  They should be favored in a game they really need to win if they want the January 7 game rather than the January 1 game in Pasadena.

9.  Whether Penn State defends their crown and finds their way to the bigger game in Pasadena. The Nittany Lions rose to the top of the Big Ten again and went to their first Rose Bowl since 1995.  However, they were also a loss to Iowa away from the BCS National Championship Game.  Will they be inspired by the pain of being so close in 2008 to make it happen in 2009?  Their most difficult game is Ohio State, but it is one of eight games at Beaver Stadium.  They also face potential landmines with trips to a potentially rebounding Illinois, recovering Michigan, and a possibly resurgent Michigan State in the regular season finale.  It may not be fair, but they realistically need to go 12-0 to play in the biggest of the big games, but with Daryl Clark returning, they just might be able to do it.

10.  Whether Purdue finds its way back to decency in 2009. The 2008 version of the Boilermakers represented a serious regression, given Purdue had been a slightly above average program under Joe Tiller.  Tiller retired and now Danny Hope is in charge of getting them back to a bowl.  It will not be easy.  It is one of those situations where everyone seems to be getting better and only shaking things out will let us know who improved the most or, at the least, did not regress.  Purdue hopes to be in the former category.

11.  Which half of the season Wisconsin will roll through its competition. That is usually the schema for the Badgers, except it did not happen in 2008.  They started 0-4 in the Big Ten, but recovered enough to get a bowl bid.  However, it was a very shaky season.  The four game losing streak included a loss to 3-9 Michigan.  The three game winning streak late in the season included being taken to overtime by Cal Poly.

So how will 2009 play out?  Bret Bielema’s tenure has been marked by a downward trend, with 2008 turning out to be very penalty heavy.  If this trend continues, 2009 portends a losing season, which would likely cause AD Barry Alvarez to put Bret’s feet to the fire.  But you never know.  Bielema could turn it around and this team could be a Big Ten surprise.

The Big Ten Conference was an island of stability this offseason with no coaching turnover among its eleven head guys. In fact, this is a conference on the upswing, with only one really mediocre program in 2007. Turnover is guaranteed next year, but not because any coach is in the frying pan.

Illinois had a breakthrough season in Ron Zook’s third season, earning a trip to the Rose Bowl to be the sacrificial lamb to the hometown Trojans of the University of Southern California. The highlight of the season was a victory at Ohio Stadium to win Illibuck for the first time since the great 2001 team. These accomplishments won the Zooker greatly improved job security, earning himself a green chair for the 2008 offseason. The question now becomes whether the prosperity continues in Urbana and Champaign. J Leman and Rashard Mendenhall are off to the NFL, but Juice Williams is back.

Indiana finally got over the hump after over a decade of chilling in the Big Ten cellar. The Hoosiers earned their first bowl trip since 1993 with a 49-yard field goal on the last play of the game for the Old Oaken Bucket against rival Purdue. They did it in their first season under Bill Lynch, who took over from the late, great Terry Hoeppner. With the pressure to end the bowl-less streak over, it remains to be seen how this program will perform as Lynch sits in his green chair.

Iowa has now had two average seasons under Kirk Ferentz after several years in which they were near the top of the Big Ten. Although it seems he is always under consideration for NFL positions, he needs for his team to start being a factor in the Big Ten race again for the talk to continue. The first step is to return to a bowl after missing out for the first time since 2000. Ferentz sits on the yellow chair and needs to win more than lose this season, or else he is in trouble.

Michigan was the scene of one of the more controversial offseason transitions as Bo Schembechler disciple Lloyd Carr retired from the Wolverine program. Carr was considered a paragon of the old school values of discipline, integrity, and “three yards and a cloud of dust,” but was heavily criticized in his later years, especially for his losses to Ohio State. Carr was replaced by former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez, who left the Mountaineers with a mess of paperwork, lawsuits, and overall feelings of anger and betrayal. Rich Rod is installing his spread option offense at Michigan. These changes in the Michigan program have alienated some people, including Justin Boren, who transferred to Ohio State. Due to these changes and the always high standards at Michigan, Rodriguez is starting his tenure in Ann Arbor on the yellow chair.

Michigan State had a rebound year with first year coach Mark Dantonio bringing the Spartans to their first bowl in four years. After the disastrous John L. Smith era, that was cause of celebration and results in Dantonio sitting on the green chair. The Spartans lost six games by a combined 31 points. The next step is to become a factor in the Big Ten and start winning some of those close games.

Minnesota had a disaster of a 2007 season in Tim Brewster’s first year in the Twin Cities. Is Brewster a bad coach or is this team still reeling from its bowl loss to Texas Tech, which was the last game of the relatively successful Glen Mason era? These questions and more should be at least partially answered as Brewster goes for his second win as a head coach, and more. Brewster sits on the green chair, and he has at least two more years to turn this program around, but that chair will start turning like the leaves should the losing continue in clumps.

Northwestern improved in its second season under school legend Pat Fitzgerald, but it is hard to look at the schedule and not notice the home loss to Duke. Those losses need to end and some wins against the big boys need to start if Fitzgerald is to remain on the green chair in Evanston.

Ohio State has been very impressive in the Jim Tressel era. However, while Tressel is in great shape, there is some doubt that is starting to become apparent in this program. This program is expected to take the next step, which is not just appearing in the BCS National Championship Game, but winning it. The Buckeyes have fallen on their faces the past two seasons in the biggest spotlight. Tressel is in no danger of losing his job, but he is failing to attain bulletproof status. As a result, he remains in the green chair. Win another national championship, and we will talk.

Penn State looks like it is going to have an interesting 2009 offseason. The venerable Joe Paterno is sitting pretty on the blue chair, and will certainly leave when he wants to leave. However, his contract is up at the end of the 2008 season. There is no succession plan in place. Contract discussions have been put off indefinitely. Paterno is willing to work without a contract, but the situation begs the question: Is this the last season for the second winningest coach in major college football?

Purdue, unlike Penn State, is all set for the retirement of their head coach. Joe Tiller is set to retire following the 2008 season. Tiller sits on the rare white chair. Danny Hope, formerly the head coach at Eastern Kentucky University, was hired as the associate head coach for this season and will be set to take over in 2009.

Wisconsin had a very good first season following the ascension of Bret Bielema to head coach following the retirement of Barry Alvarez. The good news will be expected to continue in his second season. Alvarez remains the athletic director in Madison. While Bielema sits on the green chair, eventually Alvarez wants to see more than just nine win seasons; he wants some Big Ten championships.