Fourth and Dumb

Some ideas related to the projected formation of the Big 64, a collection of four 16-team conferences:

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

The Great Conference Realignment of 2010 is now underway!  You, too, can watch with whatever range of emotions you desire or desire to be assaulted into feeling as the Big 12 Conference is torn apart like Simon in Lord of the Flies.

While buzz has been going on for a week now based on sources who wish to remain anonymous and officials of various corporeal bodies have been meeting in varying degrees of secrecy, the first substantive moves appear to be underway.

• On Wednesday evening, Nebraska started the fall of the dominoes by making its move into the Big 10 camp.  The Big 10 will have 12 members, enough for a championship game the first weekend of December, but it would be foolish to expect them to declare themselves sated on corn.  Meanwhile, as it now stands, the Big 12 Championship Game cannot be played no matter how much Dr. Pepper is supplied.
• On Thursday morning, Colorado landed a punch on the shrinking great plains conference from the opposite side by announcing it was heading to the Pac 10.  The Big 12 is now down to ten, as equal a misnomer as the Big 10 with 12 teams, and the Pac-10 has entered the land of the misnomer by taking itself to 11.  Given 11 is a crappy number, a 12th member for the Pac-10 cannot be far behind.
• Not a substantial update, but DanGo points out Utah is a likely candidate for the 12-spot in the Pac-10.  However, Utah would be a consolation prize, because Texas is the crown jewel of the Great Conference Realignment.  Utah is only headed to the Pac-10 if they are rebuffed by Texas, and if they are rebuffed by Texas, the Big 12 will survive.  However, if Texas heads west, they will be followed by the remainder of the Big 12 South ex Baylor.  The Pac-10 will expand to 16, and the Big 12 is headed to the ICU.
• Friday afternoon update: Four days after the decision was delayed, the foregone conclusion came true: Boise State will join the Mountain West in 2011.  The Mountain West takes another step toward a BCS automatic bid and leaves itself available to collect remnants of the Big 12 like Kansas if they are not taken by one of the bigger conferences.  After all, while Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Missouri would make sense to be in the Big Ten from a cultural and aesthetic viewpoint, the ultimate factor is money, and those schools are not the most enticing options for the Big Ten.
• Friday later afternoon update: The bigwigs at the University of Texas are meeting Tuesday morning to discuss defecting to the Pac-10.  Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are set to cut their ties with the Big 12 the moment Texas does, while Texas A&M is also casting longing glances at the SEC.  The next major step in the collapse of the Big 12 should come Tuesday afternoon, unless the Big Ten or perhaps another conference makes a move first.
• Monday morning update: Nothing “official” happened over the weekend, but it appears Texas A&M’s flirtation with the SEC has gotten really serious.  In the event A&M heads east instead of west to the Pac-10, Kansas would take their spot on the Pac-10’s wishlist.  That being said, Texas might be having a change of heart if the Big 12 is willing to draw up an offer the Longhorns cannot refuse and would make them the head honcho of a ten-team conference by all metrics.  Even if Texas A&M defects to the SEC, Texas could stay to be the head of a nine-team conference.  One thing that has not changed is the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech will follow Texas wherever the Horns go.  The number of scenarios has blossomed over the weekend, and the projected timeline has become fuzzy.  We could know the ultimate fate of the Big 12 by Monday evening.
• Final update on Monday evening: The Great Realignment will be a more low-key affair than expected.  Texas has decided to remain in the Big 12.  Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will remain in the Big 12.  The Big 12 will soldier on with ten teams in 2011.  The first act of this morality play is over, but the realignment mojo could become active again.  The next move we expect to see will be the Pac-10 add a 12th team, likely Utah, before realignment goes on the back burner and actual football begins.  See you then!

“I don’t think there’s anybody in the country who can beat us at this point.”–Colt McCoy, after beating Ohio State with a last-second pass.

“With all due respect, I don’t think anybody can beat us.”–Pete Carroll, after beating Penn State.

Boy, there’s nothing like the confidence of folks whose teams are finished. McCoy’s comment particularly galls me, considering he said this after needing a late comeback and a ridiculously close spot on a fourth down conversion to beat now-perennial BCS doormat Ohio State. Seriously, does barely beating the Buckeyes have some cache I’m not aware of, giving one the right to suggest his team is unbeatable?

Both McCoy and Carroll have legit beefs with the BCS selection process this year, but only the Trojans made a true statement about their snub, and even their win is at least a tiny bit suspect, considering how poorly the Big Ten fared in bowls this year and how bad they’ve been in the BCS the last few years.

I’ll tell you this much: watching Texas whiff on tackle attempts at Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor has to again call into question Big 12 defenses. Fortunately for the Gators, they have what Oklahoma DB Dominique Franks rates as the fourth-best quarterback in the Big 12–take that Stephen McGee and Joe Ganz!

The conference that is the result of the Big 8’s acquisition of half of the Southwest Conference in 1996 has an identity crisis. It is kept hush-hush, but there is an issue of just what to call the dadgum thing. Actually, there is no such crisis. Notwithstanding the big ass Roman numerals in the logo, the official name is the Big 12. Big Twelve and Big XII are incorrect. However, I like big ass Roman numerals, so I will use small ass Roman numerals in my representation.

The Big XII had moderate turnover in the 2008 offseason, with Baylor, Nebraska, and Texas A&M changing leadership. Other than that, 2007 was a great year for the conference, with three top ten programs in old money Oklahoma and new money combatants Missouri and Kansas. There are no coaches in imminent danger of losing their jobs, but bad seasons could make a few coaches uncomfortable at the programs with high standards. However, you never know when a clunker of a season or an embarrassing scandal (is there any other kind?) will arise.

Baylor finished in its most familiar place in the Big XII South, a result that saw the end of the Guy Morriss era. From Houston comes Art Briles, a Texas native with an illustrious career coaching high schools football in the state. He does not start with much material wealth, but he does have the wealth of being at a perennial loser, so he has some time to get his system in place and eventually get to a bowl game. Briles begins his Bears job in the green chair.

Colorado recovered from a disastrous first season under Boise State transfer Dan Hawkins by returning to the postseason in season two. If his son Cody has a breakout year and the rest of the teams follows suit, this team could make some noise in the suddenly crowded Big XII North. Hawkins begins the year on a green chair.

Iowa State had a forgettable season in Gene Chizik’s first season. The former Texas assistant has a lot of work to do to get the program back to its happy days of the beginning of the decade. However, as long as the team improves each year, he will be allowed to work his plan. Chizik sits on a green chair.

Kansas finally had the breakout year expected of those teams administered by coaches in the Bob Stoops coaching tree. The disappointment of having their national championship dreams dashed by Missouri was more than made up for by the program-defining win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Has Mark Mangino gotten this program to the point of being a consistent winner or was 2007 a flash in the pan? Most of the starters are back, it is not impossible for the Jayhawks to make 2008 close to what 2007 was. Any pressure Mangino was under to win is now pushed away, and he sits comfortably on a big green chair.

Kansas State started out 3-1, including a win at Texas, but then the wheels came off as they went 2-6 the rest of the way and missed out on a bowl. Given that the Big XII North is tougher than it was a year ago, and the 3-0 spring game score was the definition of offensive anemia, with emphasis on offensive, finishing better than fifth in the division will be a moral victory. The undefeated record against Texas keeps Ron Prince on the green chair going into his third season, but he needs to at least maintain a holding pattern for that chair not to change with the leaves.

Missouri, like Kansas, had its breakout season in 2007. Gary Pinkel led them to the huge win over Kansas that elevated the Tigers to its first #1 ranking…in a really long time and its first Big XII Championship Game. However, the party ended sooner (ha!) than they would have liked as they lost to Oklahoma for the second time to fall to the Cotton Bowl. Regardless, it was an excellent season that Gary Pinkel’s crew can build on for 2008. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin are back, as is much of the defense, for a second run at the national championship game. Pinkel is sitting pretty in the green chair after several years of being under fire.

Nebraska, after four years of getting beaten with the clue stick, finally is ready to become Nebraska again. Four years after the idiotic firing of the moderately successful Frank Solich and the idiotic not-hiring of fiery and talented interim coach Bo Pelini, and after four years of the hideous defense and hideously named Corn Coast Offense of former Oakland Raider head man Bill Callahan, Bo is back in charge in Hazzard Lincoln and the Blackshirts are set to avoid being whitewashed as they were too often in the Callahan era. Naturally, expectations are high, as they always are in the Cornhusker state, but given the carnage of the previous coaching era, Pelini will be given some time to rebuild the program. 2008 may not be the year for the Huskers, but prosperity is around the corner. Pelini starts his head coaching career on a green chair.

Oklahoma had another great year in 2007, if a conference championship is the goal. However, there is some doubt starting to settle in for Bob Stoops. The Fiesta Bowl was a disaster and the team has continued its trend of losing conference games it has no business losing. This year it was Texas Tech and Colorado. Win either of those games, and Oklahoma would have been in the BCS National Championship Game. Stoops still has tremendous job security, but his teams have yet to reach the pinnacle of the 2000 team that won the Orange Bowl and the national championship. Stoops sits in the green chair for now. He needs at least one more national championship before he can be fitted for a blue chair and immortality in Norman.

Oklahoma State had a decent season, surviving the Big XII South and then knifing Indiana in the Insight Bowl. The 2007 season was more well known for coach Mike Gundy’s dust-up with Jenni Carlson over a newspaper article critical of second string quarterback Bobby Reid. The overall reaction to the incident was mixed and likely had no bearing on Gundy’s job security. Gundy has not yet had a great season, but he still has some time to produce one for T. Boone Pickens. He sits on the green chair.

Texas won the 2005 national championship. The second honeymoon is over for Mack Brown. Three years after finally getting the monkey off his back, Brown has followed it up with two seasons of standard fare: 10 wins, with one loss to Oklahoma and two to teams it has no business losing to. The Longhorns lost to Texas A&M for the second consecutive year. While consistency is generally a good thing, the Longhorn fans want championships, not gaudy win totals and finishing second in the division to Oklahoma. Therefore, Brown is on the yellow chair. With all the talent coming into Austin, he needs to at least make his series with Bob Stoops competitive.

Texas A&M’s Dennis Franchione started the season on the hot seat and it got hotter as the season progressed. However, the administration never did pull the trigger on ending the Coach Fran era, despite the newsletter controversy. Everyone was expecting the hatchet to fall following the season. Instead, it was Franchione who ended the charade, resigning at the postgame press conference following his win over the Texas Longhorns. In steps Mike Sherman, former coach of the Green Bay Packers, to restore the Aggie program to its high years under R.C. Slocum, under whom Sherman was an offensive assistant. Sherman starts his college head coaching career on the green chair.

Texas Tech has been to eight bowls in eight years under Mike Leach, allowing Leach to become the subject of whispers whenever coaching positions become available. However, he has yet to win the Big XII South. Instead, he has produced incredible offensive statistics and what most people consider to be system quarterbacks. One of those quarterbacks, Graham Harrell, enters his senior season with a chance to become even more prodigious, but more importantly, bring a championship to Lubbock. Good but not great is tolerated at Texas Tech, so Leach sits on a green chair, but he needs to keep up the good work or he may start to feel the heat.