Fourth and Dumb

As most of us expected, Alabama proved to be too much for Texas last night, but surely everyone on earth is wondering if it would have been different if Colt McCoy had not gotten hurt on the fifth play of the game. The UT freshman QB Garrett Gilbert finally warmed up a bit in the late second half and got Texas to 24-21, and after the Longhorns’ D shut down a Bama drive, Gilbert and the offense got the ball inside their fifteen yard line with less than three minutes to go: just your standard national-championship-winning drive of 85+-yards staring a true frosh in the face.

Kirby Smart called a good LB blitz, Anders crushed the kid, and Bama won its first NC of the 21^st century.

Good for them. That’s why you hire Nick Satan—to win you a NC. Of course, with that guy one always has to wonder if/when he’s going to leave. Is it possible for him to stay in Tuscaloosa for 15 years or so until retirement? Certainly there’s not a better college job out there (equal jobs exist, but there’s no place where one can recruit and win any better). You have to think that Saban will want another shot at the NFL someday, but Bama fans can likely rest easy for a couple years anyway.

Of course, like all Gators, I’m already scoping the Tide out for next year. UF goes to Tuscaloosa on October 2 of next year, where they’ll presumably be playing the #1-ranked, defending national champions. Both teams will have lost significant performers, though it looks a little worse for the Gators due to the diminished shine in the absence of Timmy Tebow’s halo.

Gators lose: Tebow, WR Riley Cooper, OLs Pouncey twins (or at least Mike), TE Aaron Hernandez, S Joe Haden, MLB Brandon Spikes, OLB Ryan Stamper, DE Jermaine Cunningham, probably DE Carlos Dunlap.

Tide loses: RB Roy Upchurch, CBs Javier Arenas and Tyrone King, OLB Anders, DT Terence Cody, Kicker Tiffin, both punters, two OL starters, and almost certainly MLB and defensive captain Rolando McClain.

Again, the Gators’ losses seem worse because of Tebow’s moving on, but most observers are pretty confident in the ability of redshirt junior John Brantley to step in and throw it better than Tebow ever did. They lose the running at the QB position, but they get back Percy Harvin impersonator Andre Debose, who was hurt before the first game.

Bama gets another year of Greg McElroy and Mark Ingram, and we can expect to see a lot more of the home-run-threat running of Trent Richardson.

Alabama should be preseason #1, and I figure the Gators to be around 4-5. The game in Tuscaloosa actually may not end up mattering too much, as it very likely could be just round one between the Gators and the Tide in 2010. If nothing else, it’s pretty clear that those two teams have set themselves up as the twin peaks of the SEC, and the road to the national title will have to include stops in their home cities.

Well, did anyone see that coming?

Sure, many observers thought Bama would beat Florida, but the total domination displayed by the Tide couldn’t have been reasonably predicted by disinterested folks. But one thing should have been a tip-off that Bama would win: the Great Satan does not like to lose, and he will do whatever it takes to avoid it. Bama players and coaches say that Saban spent the entire offseason, starting the day after the Sugar Bowl loss, breaking down the Gators (some might argue this started before the Sugar Bowl loss, as Bama didn’t seem that interested in playing Utah last January).

I was most impressed by the Bama O-line. They nearly completely kept the Gators out of the backfield, giving Greg McElroy time to find safe, short routes to hit, while also helping Mark Ingram gash the Gators for 113 yards on the ground and 76 on just two receptions. In the meantime, the Bama defense did to Florida what everyone expected Florida to do to them: they crowded the line and dared Tebow to beat them through the air, a task he was clearly not up to. Meantime, Jeff  Demps and Chris Rainey combined for three rushes (!) for 16 yards (!!). How many for Man Moody? Zero. Though he did manage to lose three yards on one reception.

Though Alabama deserves all the credit for this impressive performance, one still has to wonder at the Gators’ scheming. UF threw the ball on more than half of its first downs, hard to figure for a team at the top of the nation in rush yardage. This led to a lot of second and tens, leading to even fewer rushing attempts. This sure seemed to be the game where the loss of former OC Dan Mullen hurt the Gators the most.

At least next year the Gators will have a shot at redemption, playing at Tuscaloosa on October 2^nd in the fourth game of five in a row against 2009-10 bowl teams. But with Bama returning its offensive skill position players and much of its defense, they’ll be awfully tough to beat. And the Gators are going to be breaking in a raw quarterback as well.

Wait a second, why does that sound so familiar?

Okay, so I need to post an SEC CG preview, but tonight is my only night of interwebs access between Wednesday and Sunday, and problematically I’ve been forced to enjoy a large quantity (how much would be wrong to say publicly) of beer. And yet, I know our many, many fans will be sad if I don’t offer my insightful views.

Here it is in a nutshell. The Gator fan in me is filled with fear and anxiety, but the distanced football observer is comfortable in suggesting that Florida holds the cards in this game. The Gator secondary shut down Julio Jones last year, and they’re all back. Last year the Alabama WRs had John Parker Wilson, one of the best 3-4 QBs in Bama history slinging the ball toward them, but this year it’s caretaker QB Greg McElroy. Granted, UF doesn’t have Carlos Dunlap, but it seems that the Gators will learn from Auburn’s stacking of the box and daring McElroy to throw. Can Greggie dice up Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden and company? It seems unlikely.

But wait, what about hip-pointer-shot-receiving RB Mark Ingram? Well, no RB has done much against UF, and consider this question: is UF or Auburn’s run defense better? Frankly, freshman Trent Richardson might be a more scary home run threat, but UF doesn’t allow lots of run yards.

Though UF’s offense can be clunky, the run game there seems too strong for Bama to contain for four quarters. UF will grind out yet another win, their 23rd straight. Bet on Deonte Thompson or David Nelson unexpectedly coming up with a big reception in the second half. You heard it here first.

So it’s been a quiet week here at Fourth and Dumb. No action since Tuesday–hey, it’s like my marriage! Hey-o! Take my wife, please!

Sigh. Yeah, cheesy monologue material may be the way to go, as the college football season seems to have really stagnated here at the end of this season. Seriously, are there any games of import still happening? I’m too lazy to do the research, but I’m certain there are no more match-ups of two top-15 teams happening this week or next week. And even most of the rivalry games seem pretty lopsided this year. Today we get Ohio State-Michigan, for example, but outside of their fans, does that game jazz anyone this season? Same with next week’s Florida-FSU and Bama-Auburn: you just don’t think these games are going to be big ones. Or at least I don’t.

Anyway, there’s just one game in the SEC really worth watching for any normal people today (note that being abnormal, I fully expect to check out Vandy-Tennessee and Georgia Kentucky if I’m able): that’s LSU at Ole Miss. The Rebs seem to have awakened the offense a bit, with Dexter McCluster averaging 264 all-purpose yards the last four games, and Jevan Snead completing more passes to teammates than opponents. Still, the Tigers have a stout defense, and we can’t be sure Ole Miss won’t revert to old ways. I think this will be close, but the Rebs will pull it out to win by 2 or 3.

Florida and Bama get FIU and UT-Chattanooga, respectively. Let’s see if either team can crest 50; last year you’d expect the Gators to get 49 at half in a game like this, but though I expect Tebow to throw some long balls on the nation’s 118th-ranked defense, I think the Gates will still run a bunch and not score a ton of points. But I hope desperately that John Brantley gets some reps in the second half. For Bama, expect a steady diet of Mark Ingram, bolstering his Heisman hopes and not letting Greg McElroy lose any more confidence by throwing picks.

Georgia-Kentucky should be pretty competitive, and I’d be a boor not to pause to offer condolences to Bulldog Nation on the passing of UGA VII this week. I hope he’s got legs to hump in Dawg heaven (which, by the way, is near Schenectady, NY). Anyway, don’t be surprised to see Kentucky take the Dawgs down, but on the other hand, don’t count on it, either. Georgia throws for a ton of yards and wins close.

I’d love to think Vandy would give Tennessee a tough game at Knoxville, but their offense is too weak. If their D-line can play like they did against the Gators in The Swamp, they might be able to keep it close for a while, but their offense is so bad it doesn’t seem like they could do much with the field position their D might give them. Tennessee will win at around the spread of 17.

Miss State will try desperately to get bowl eligible, but Arkansas’s offense is too good for that. Still, Dan Mullen’s got the Other Bulldogs’ offense looking better than it has in forever. Expect good things from them in two years when he’s got the personnel his offense needs.

Before we get to the game, let us pause to mourn the end of the career (at UT, anyway) of Nu’Keese Richardson, who, along with scrub Mike Edwards, has been forever cast out of Knoxville. Oddly, Janzen Jackson is still there, so there must be something to the story we’re not getting yet (maybe he didn’t threaten anyone with a pellet gun?). But Gators everywhere are thankful to Lane Kiffin for taking Nuke from us. Thanks, Kiffy!

Adding to Kiffy’s tough week was the most interesting SEC development from this past weekend:  the long-awaited awakening of the Ole Miss offense we thought was going to play like this all year. Jevan Snead completed passes short and long, and Dexter McCluster gashed the Vols. Ole Miss may be rolling now, just in time to whip on LSU, but far too late to salvage its sky-high preseason hopes.

Georgia won a scorefest over Auburn, meaning the PlainsTigers have won only one game, against a non-conference foe, since I joined their bandwagon at the end of September and started predicting great things. You’re welcome, TigerEagles! But at least you’re bowl eligible.

The Gators continued to show that they are morphing into the Alabama team of 1961, grinding out games with running and defense. But that team won a national title, and I still think the Gators will do so (sure, I’m biased, what of it?). It’s a cliche, but right now the Gators really don’t seem that interested in their games. The offense putzes around, knowing the defense will mostly destroy people. No matter Pope Urban’s lectures about taking each game seriously, right now you have to figure the Gators players are sleeping and eating Alabama.

Speaking of the Tide, they efficiently rolled up the Other Bulldogs from Miss State and now get a scrimmage with UT-Chattanooga before heading to their showdown with the cow college kids from the Plains. Bama’s too focused to lose that game, but it’s a rivalry, so it might be interesting.

So there was this one big game this weekend, and it went the way a lot of us expected: Bama’s passing game looked pretty mediocre, save one giant play made by uber-talent Julio Jones, and Mark Ingram ground down the Tigers in the second half. And one other thing we expected: a crazy homer call for Alabama which seemed obviously wrong to every American not sworn to fealty to George Wallace or Bear Bryant.

So Bama wins 24-15 and stays on track for the BCS CG semi-final game against UF. Considering the seeming bad call against Florida that wasn’t overturned in the win over Arkansas, is there a clear conspiracy to get UF and Alabama into that game? Consider what this would entail: first, a clear desire on the part of the SEC to stage that match-up, as if an Alabama-Florida game somehow guarantees more money or exposure for the league than, say, having LSU or Georgia in the game; surreptitious communication of this plot to league officials along with directions on how to quietly execute calls; a hope that a call here or there could turn the game (certainly not always the case!); and then much hope that none of this gets out.

So, no, there’s no obvious conspiracy. As in almost any sport, officials tend to protect the home team, as well as the highly rated team. But a call here or there couldn’t protect Bama or Florida if they couldn’t win. Still, that shitty call screwed LSU, which sucks.

Bama still has some challenges ahead, with games at Miss State and Auburn (the former gave a good game to UF, so anything’s possible (though unlikely); the latter’s a rivalry game on the road), but they should get into the SEC game undefeated. Florida is at SC this weekend, which some of my Gator pals fear as a trap game, but frankly I can’t see it being close. The grind-it-out Gators will grind out another 14-17 point win, but it will likely be pretty dull, as many of their games have been.

So it will be UF and Bama undefeated. With their erratic offenses and stout defenses, anything can happen. And though we’re a ways away from needing my preview, let’s just consider one thing: both teams have top-five defenses and great run games, with mediocre but potentially explosive passing games. So what separates them? Well, in a big game, whom would you like leading your team: Greg McElroy or Tim Tebow?

One game clearly dominates the consciousness of fans deeply interested in the sriracha-slathered chicken vindaloo that is the Southeastern Conference. And no, I’m not talking about the fascination with whether it will be Carlos Dunlap or Jermaine Cunningham who will tear the first limb from Mackenzi Adams’s body in Hogtown today.

No, of course I’m talking about the epic LSU at Alabama clash in Tuscaloosa. Amazingly, despite their recent offensive woes, Bama is favored by 11 as of this morning. That seems very high to me: I’d be happy to go offshore and bet on LSU to cover, but I’m not confident enough to say they’ll win (sorry, Ricky!). I’m thinking this game will see  a number of field goal attempts and a fair amount of punts, and as I averred in my picks, the team that wins will make at least one game-turning play on defense. Julio Jones has barely touched the ball lately (hmm, wishing maybe you’d chosen the Gators now, Julio?), and the Tide needs to stretch the field a little to beat LSU. What’s that you say? Florida ground out a safe win against the Tigers by running it? True, but UF ran it with the QB and three RBs coming out of various sets, with emphasis on misdirection and option stuff. The Tide doesn’t do much of that: they’re Ingram left, Ingram right, and Ingram up the middle. That seems to me to play to the Tigers’ strengths in the front seven. This game will be close by Mount Cody or somebody will make a play to win for Bama.

The Gators will keep up their recent offensive awakening against Vanderbilt. The story line for the Gates is coming clear: early struggle, an injury to their messianic leader, controversy over various small sins (like eye poking), but eventual redemption with love (Urban for Timmy, Timmy for Brandon, Brandon for Stamper, etc.) conquers all. The melodrama that has been the 09 Gators will culminate in Atlanta after they score 30+ in every game in November.

South Carolina and Arkansas have pivotal games against each other, but the greater pressure is certainly on Arkansas at home. The Pigs are 3-5, with a game at LSU left; if we count that as a loss, that means they have to win every other game on the slate to get bowl eligible. The toughest of those three is today (the others are home games against Troy and Miss State). Arkansas’s offense is clearly far better than SC’s, but the reverse is true on defense. And Stephen Garcia has been yo-yo-like in his inconsistency. Though I’ll be rooting for the ‘Cocks (I will always love the SpurDog above all coaches–he is my master and role model), I think Arkansas will put up too many points to lose.

The rest of the slate is directional and non-conference foes for everyone else. Just one thing: watch for Tennessee to struggle, at least for the first half, with Memphis, who has played them tight the last few years. But of course Hello Kiffy will come through.

The revelation of feet of clay was the major theme of the eighth week in the veil of tears that is the world’s greatest football conference.

Alabama got all of seven days as the new darlings of AP voters. The giant paws of Mount Cody saved their asses from an embarrassing loss to Mr. Moral Victory, Lane Kiffin. And all I heard for the last two days is how impressed we should all be with what Lane’s got building there in Knoxville. But please, let me call bullshit on that. The defense up there is very good, what with Monte’s coaching and Eric Berry’s presence, but the offense, the Georgia game somehow notwithstanding, is wretched. Can we all just remember for a second that A) Florida gave Tennessee a bunch of turnovers and played as conservative as Grover Norquist but the Vols still were never a threat to win, and B) Alabama was up 12-3 with three minutes to go before having a bad turnover at the wrong time and then giving up an onside kick. Neither game was REALLY that close, though obviously the Bama game really could’ve been a loss for the Tide but for Cody’s block, but that was due to the crazy stuff at the finish–for the entire rest of the game Tennessee couldn’t get a first down with six tries.

I’m not saying Lane won’t get them better; heck, he’s recruiting like a demon. But he’s got a ways to go, and I’m still betting against him getting the Vols bowl-eligible this year.

Anyway, Bama didn’t deserve to be demoted for winning an SEC game, just like the Gators didn’t need to get demoted after last week’s near miss versus Arkansas. But so it goes with today’s voters, who seem to think that the top teams have to win bigger to satiate their hype.

Speaking of hype, the Gators looked like warmed-over vomit on offense in Starkville on Saturday. First and goal at the three? What do you have, new OC Steve Addazio (keeping in mind you want to impress the last OC, Dan Mullen, who’s coaching against you)? Hey, how about throwing Tebow into the line three straight times? Sure, I bet Dan Mullen can’t recognize that blocking scheme! Really, the Gators’ offense has gotten as stagnant as Donald Rumsfeld’s boxers. Some questions most Gator fans have:

What happened to the talk of running CB Joe Haden as a wildcat option? (Or Brandon James or any of the RBs?)

Why don’t we hand off more when we’re in the Red Zone? (The Gates have converted two TDs in their last 15 trips, both on hand offs to RBs).

What happened to the talk of getting back-up QB John Brantley meaningful snaps? As he’s a much better pure passer than Timmy, wouldn’t he be a good change of pace for a couple series a game (or maybe even in the Red Zone?).

All I know is that when watching the game replay Sunday morning, I saw a number of plays with WRs seemingly open and waving at Tebow like Sevastopol hookers at the latest boatload of Greek stevedores (that’s for you, Charles Meigs!), while Timmy, under pressure, would tuck and pick up two yards. Still, all this talk of the Gators’ problems is a bit premature. They’ve done everything in their power to give teams a chance to beat them, but they haven’t been able to do so yet (and don’t give me the stuff about bad calls; Doe’s potential fumble wasn’t nearly as clear cut as everyone seems to think–if a replay has to be clearly conclusive to overturn the call on the field, I don’t see how people can be so emphatic about it, as it’s not clear that Doe dropped the ball before the tip crossed the white line of the end zone). And sooner or later they’ll take care of the ball for a whole game, and they’ll win by 17 or 20. But neither they nor Bama are teams that are going to crest 40 points very often this year, if ever. And right now the SEC Championship Game is shaping up to be straight out of 1928, a 8-6 affair with lots of blood and bits of bone on the field.

Meanwhile, South Carolina just keeps hanging around, just like the conference’s Big Two. They eked one out against Vandy, and now they’ll get Tennessee, in what should be an interesting game: the late 20th-century’s most hated coach in the South vs. the 21st-century’s most hated coach in the South. The over-under ought to be around 16.

Oh, and LSU also may be back on the uptick. They nicely pushed around Auburn, even showing some signs of offense with Jordan Jefferson. And it’s easy to forget that they still control their destiny with regards to the SEC title, and hence, perhaps even with the national title. If they can beat Bama in a couple weeks and then beat UF in a rematch, they’d be 12-1 and SEC champs, hard to deny a spot in Pasadena unless we still have Texas, Iowa, and Cincinnati all still undefeated (not to mention those petty sinks that DanGr’s always going on about).

Oh, and there were some other games in the conference, too, but you can look ‘em up on ESPN or something.

For the second week in a row, there are no really big games in the chili-slathered, Nathan’s foot-long that is the Southeastern Conference, but there are some intriguing games nonetheless. To wit:

Arkansas travels to Oxford to play Ole Miss. Can Ole Miss get back up off the mat and at least fight for second in the SEC West? Maybe. On the one hand you’d think that Jevan Snead can move the ball on Arkansas’s D, but on the other that Razorpig D nutted up and slowed the Gators last week. But then again, can Arkansas get up for another tough roadie after their oh-so-close loss to the Gators? I say no: Ole Miss wins by 3-4.

Lane Kiffin weighed in a few days, saying that Alabama is the “best-coached team” in the SEC and is the “clear” #1 team in the nation. Is this just more of Lane’s weird habit of kissing the ass of the powerhouse he’s about to play (cf his comments a few days before the Gator game that UF should be favored by 100 points), or is he just gigging Urban Meyer now that the Gators’ loss is in his rearview mirror? Well, if it’s the former, don’t bother: Nick Satan doesn’t care what anyone thinks of him, and he’s going to punish the Vols. Will Lane’s anger over being peremptorily disallowed from wearing orange on the road be enacted in a stirring effort by his team to beat the Tide? No.  Bama wins by 17.

Can Auburn look the way they did in the first couple weeks during their trip to Death Valley in Baton Rouge? Lately it seems like they’ve forgotten how to play pass defense, but fortunately for them, Jordan Jefferson can’t pass! Still, LSU isn’t going to let the PlainsTigers score many points. LSU wins by 4.

Tim Tebow gets to visit with his mentor and friend, Dan Mullen, when the Gators go to Starkville. The last time the Gates actually won there was the year before I began matriculating in Gainesville: 1985. Since then Miss State has been a graveyard of good Gator teams. And every single time it didn’t appear possible UF could lose. But really, it’s not possible UF can lose this game. Right? I mean, really? Anyway, I think the Gators win by 22. But I’ll be hitting the Patron early to calm my nerves, especially if the Gators start putting the ball on the floor early, as they have the last couple games.

South Carolina will let Stephen Garcia loose against Vandy and will win big.

Week 7 of competition in the Southeastern Conference unfolded as most of us assumed it would, with two exceptions: Auburn losing to Kentucky and Florida nearly puking themselves against Arkansas.

Let’s start with the Gators. In the days since their brush with failure, many folks have been screaming about the two bad calls against Arkansas during the Gators’ fourth-quarter comeback. Indeed, even the SEC itself admitted that the personal foul called against the Arkansas DE was non-existent, though they didn’t comment on the phantom pass interference call in the end zone a couple plays later. This has led some, like ESPN moron Colin Cowherd (seriously, that guy is really charmless and uninteresting), to insist that Florida would have a loss on its record were it not for those calls.

This is pretty silly, frankly. Neither call came on a third down, so there’s nothing to say that the Gators wouldn’t still have converted for a new set of downs. Further, though obviously the yardage helps, Jeff Demps still had to run for a six-yard TD after they were made. And finally, it’s worth noting that both came on the drive the Gators used to tie the game. Arkansas got a shot at a 40-something-yard field goal AFTER that Gator TD, but they missed. The refs didn’t force that. Further, the Gators then had to drive down for the winning FG.

So sure, those calls were bad and definitely hurt the Razorpigs. But to suggest that they directly caused the Arkansas loss is plain stupid. What’s clearly not stupid is questioning the Gator offense. Obviously they’re not scoring points too well right now. They are, however, moving the ball. They lost two fumbles inside the Arkansas ten yard line, and their TD scoring efficiency in the red zone this year is less than 50%. If the Gators don’t start opening up the passing game to include the wide receivers more frequently, they’re going to have a hard time against South Carolina and, presumably, Alabama in the SEC CG.

Meantime, Auburn has come back to earth, weighed down by my cursed prediction that they’d be 7-0 heading into Death Valley this weekend to play LSU. As it is, they’ll now exit the Bayou State 5-3, heading for the Liberty Bowl. So it goes.

Bama had a hard time of it with the ‘Cocks, but they were never really in trouble. Their defense continues to impress, though I’m a little skeptical of the sudden Heisman hype around RB Mark Ingram. He’s a good back, but let’s see how he does against Tennessee this weekend and LSU down the road. But either way, the Bama-Florida game is beginning to look inevitable.

PS–fun note about this weekend’s Tennessee-Bama game: Lane Kiffin requested to be able to wear their home orange jerseys against Bama in Tuscaloosa this weekend, and the SEC agreed, but Bama said ‘no’ without comment. This hurt Lane’s feelings, and he complained that it would’ve been “fun” for the players and fans to see the teams in their solid colors. Don’t think that Nick Satan has forgotten Lane’s off-season boasting about beating Bama in recruiting. I’m sure Bama will try to put the pasting to the Vols, and though I almost never, ever, root for the Tide, here’s hoping they give Kiffin’s boys the spanking the Gators couldn’t.

PPS–Nah, I’m not going to bother to write about Georgia beating Vandy or other minor games in the conference. You don’t really care, and neither do I.