Fourth and Dumb

Some ideas related to the projected formation of the Big 64, a collection of four 16-team conferences:

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

You tell me which one makes more sense – the ACC, or this:

What a roller coaster ‘Noles fans have been riding this year while following their team. First they lose a thriller to their arch-rival, geting four shots at the end zone before losing a somewhat sloppy but still exhilirating game. Then they nearly barf their season away versus Jacksonville State, causing panic in NoleLand and generating some blog noise about the mistake of placing the future of the program in Jimbo Fisher’s hands. And then last week they beat the bejeezus out of a very good BYU team (don’t go thinking the Mormons are no good; they still beat a very good Oklahoma team on a neutral field).

So who is Florida State this year? It seems to me there have been two constants: a very good passing game led by a much-improved Christian Ponder and a WR corps that’s playing way better than most could have expected, combined with a secondary that’s always just one play away from giving up a 70-yard TD or taking an interception back for one. This should make for some fun games to watch, as long as, like me, you’re not overly worried about the outcome. But if I were one of you die-hard Noles, I’d keep a barf bag handy.

This Saturday they’ll take USF apart, especially with Grothe on the sideline. Then they get this stretch:

At Boston College; home vs. Ga. Tech; at North Carolina; home vs. NC State; at Clemson.

There’s your ACC season, obviously. (After that there’s a guaranteed win and a guaranteed loss involving Maryland and at Florida–I’ll let you guess which is which). I think the Noles can go 4-1 through that stretch the way their offense is playing, as long as Mickey can get that secondary to play a little bit more consistently. I know I’d like to see a FSU-Miami rematch in the ACC in RayJay in Tampa.

It was a thing for beauty for all enthusiasts of the totally awesome triple option.  Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson unleashed his playbook and the results were devastating: 472 rushing yards, the most yards rushing given up by Miami since 1944, and the most accumulated by Tech since 1978.  More important, however, was the final score, 41-23, in a game that was not as close as that score indicates: the score was 27-3 midway through the third quarter.  It was complete domination by an old school offense against the vaunted Miami defense.  Just when Miami looked like it was about to get back to being Miami, they lose their heads and get smoked old school.

Do you believe now that the totally awesome triple option works against Les Six?  What is that, still not convinced?  As big as this game was for its conference standing, the next game is for its standing in its state.  Yes, Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is just around the corner.  If Georgia Tech can go into Athens and knock off the Georgia Bulldogs for the first time since 2000, then everyone will believe in what Paul Johnson and his Yellow Jackets are doing for the North Avenue Trade School.

With a record of 5-3, Georgia Tech is now done with ACC regular season play.  With their win, they greatly enhanced their chances of attending the ACC Championship Game and diminished those of Miami.  With one more ACC game in the books, what does the ACC Coastal division race look like now?

- All five teams in contention now have three losses.  To qualify for the tiebreaker process, each team needs to get to 5-3.  From now on, a loss by the four remaining teams at any time this weekend or next weekend eliminates them from the race.

- Georgia Tech needs North Carolina to lose a game and the winner of Virginia-Virginia Tech to lose their previous game.  The Yellow Jackets would lose all tiebreakers that involve one of those teams.

- Miami needs the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner to win its previous game and for North Carolina to lose a game.  Miami cannot win a tiebreaker with only Georgia Tech or any tiebreaker involving North Carolina.

- North Carolina needs the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner to lose its other game.  North Carolina wins all tiebreakers not involving the Virginia teams.

- Virginia and Virginia Tech need Miami to lose a game and/or have North Carolina win both games.  The only way the winner of their matchup wins a tiebreaker involving Miami is if North Carolina is included in that tie.

Florida State gets the Demon Deacons at home Saturday, and I’m thinking that their entire season is riding on this game. In Orlando the paper’s been filled with stories along the lines of “Gosh, isn’t it crazy that FSU is going to measure itself against these wacky Dekes whom they used to scrape off their shoes,” which I suppose is a good angle, but how big this game is going to be for the Noles isn’t being emphasized.

If FSU loses this game at home they not only have what’s essentially a two-game deficit in the ACC Atlantic, but the hit to their program’s pride would be nearly incalculable. That FSU could lose three in a row, two at home, to Wake would not only confirm Wake’s passing them in the conference, but it would also crush the spirit of their fans, who have to watch the hated Gators comfortably inhabiting the top ten and even the USF Bulls encroaching on their recruiting territory. It also would put tremendous heat on Jimbo Fisher, whom I think fans are ready to start blaming instead of Saint Bobby.

On the other hand, a win, even a close, ugly win, will bring joy to the Noles and their mulleted fans, along with a belief that Jimbo’s the guy. Even if they end up 9-3 or 8-4, a win Saturday gives Seminole Nation a feeling that they’re back. They know they’re not going to beat Florida this year, so they’re not sweating that. But they need to get back on top of the ACC sooner rather than later. But losing to the Dekes will destroy this season for them.

So as the great football philosophers De La Soul put it, stakes is high in Tally this weekend. I think the return of Preston Parker and Budd Thacker will energize the Nolies and give them a close win. What do y’all think? Can the Noles absorb a loss here and be okay?

Considering the vehemence with which most fans will argue over which BCS conference is the best, I’ve been surprised in the lead-up to this season how few folks seem willing to deny that the SEC is the strongest. Yeah, there are always some yahoos with their Bucknut helmets or miniature Boomer Sooner replicas who won’t back down, but most pundits and even fans seem lately to concede Southern football dominance.

The opening weekend offered a couple dings to the conference’s pride, though. First, let me offer my thanks to Jonathan Crompton for spraying balls all over the field last night and making me stay up well past my bedtime just to watch the Vols’ kicker Daniel Lincoln crap the bed by missing a 37-yarder in overtime. I had figured to sack out by my usual old-guy bedtime of around 10 pm, with the Vols firmly in control. But they let a kid throw four picks in the first half while only building a seven-point lead. Nice work, new offensive coordinator Dave Clawsen! I guess there ARE small differences between game planning for your Richmond team’s game versus Mars Hill college and getting ready for an average Pac-10 team.  I look forward to hearing how Phat Phil thinks his offense can beat UGA, UF, SC, or Bama this year.  Then there was the little-remarked-upon choke by the Bulldogs no one cares about, the ones from Mississippi State, who let Louisiana Tech outscore them 13-0 in the second half in Ruston to lose 22-14. I presume our colleague Dan Greenstein will be amenable to officially putting Sly Croom on the hot seat after that one.

On the other hand, Kentucky, despite losing seemingly every significant offensive skill player except that Dicky Lyon, Jr., got all over Louisville (not a huge upset but a bit of a surprise), and a sloppy South Carolina team got it together in the second half to whomp NC State (granted, not a good ACC team, which is saying a lot in that conference). Most of the rest of the conference dined on those tasty directional cupcakes, though one could argue that Ole Miss did a little better than that by scoring 41 on a decent Memphis team.

All in all not the kind of start to confirm BEST CONFERENCE IN THE LAND status, but none of those results, including the Tennessee stinkiness, deny it, either.  Only one game in the upcoming weekend has a single-digit spread, that being an intriguing test for Ole Miss (+8) playing at Wake Forest. If Ole Miss can pull an upset there, meaning maybe the 7th or 8th best SEC team beat what might be the best ACC team (after Clemson and Va Tech’s troubles), then conference boosters will have some real reason to crow.

It was a moderate year of turnover in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) as two coaches were replaced as the league enters its fourth season with twelve schools. Like the spinning logo shown during Raycom-Lincoln Financial syndicated ACC broadcasts, we will go in alphabetical order.

Boston College started out great, rising to #2 in the country, then lost two games, recovered to make it to the ACC Championship Game but went home empty-handed, then won yet another bowl game against an inferior opponent. It was yet another illustration of the good but not great reputation of the Eagles. Now entering his second season, Jeff Jagodzinski is in the green chair. As long as he pumps out nine win seasons, he should remain in good standing, but it remains to be seen how patient the BC administration remains at the football program not being able to take the next step.

Clemson had another good but not great season. Apparently that is good enough for the administration, as they keep Tommy Bowden around for his tenth season at the helm despite his failure to take it up to the next level. Nevertheless, Bowden started the season on the yellow chair and remains on it through this off season. The fans are not very happy with the stagnation in the program and he could be on his way out if the Tigers have a losing season.

Duke ended a long losing streak by defeating Northwestern on the road, but that being the only win of their season spelled the end for Ted Roof, who went 6-45 with the Blue Devils, including his interim period after Carl Franks got canned in 2002. In steps former Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, who was so excited about the job that he drove all night on I-40 to interview for it. Like almost all new coaches, Cutcliffe starts on the green chair. He has a big task ahead of him bringing the Blue Devils back to respectability, but he will be well rewarded should he deliver their first bowl game since 1989.

Florida State endured yet another mediocre season, yet coach Bobby Bowden keeps on kicking. The living legend sits in a blue chair given his legendary success. White stripes appeared this offseason, though, as offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher has been designated the next head coach effective when the winningest coach in Division I FBS decides to retire.

Georgia Tech, unlike Clemson, decided to do something about their mediocrity over the past several years and fired Chan Gailey. In steps Paul Johnson, who exuded excellence at both Navy and Georgia Southern, to bring the program to the next level. Johnson naturally starts by sitting in a green chair. The one win that likely got him the job was Navy’s first victory over Notre Dame since 1963.

Miami hired Randy Shannon last year as a means of maintaining continuity after they sacked Larry Coker and to reward the former Hurricane for his excellent coaching. This was not apparent in 2007 as the Hurricanes endured their first losing season in a decade. They hit rock bottom in a 48-0 home loss to Virginia in their final game at the Orange Bowl stadium. The heat is on as Shannon now has to sit in a yellow chair. He is not in imminent danger, but he needs to patch up relations with the local high school talent pipeline and show signs of the program returning to its glory days for him to remain safe in 2009.

Maryland’s season featured a home upset of Boston College and a road shutout of North Carolina State to clinch a bowl berth, but the rest of the season was a major disappointment. To remedy that, Ralph Friedgen hired an offensive coordinator to properly utilize his improved talent. Once a strong candidate for a blue chair after the fantastic first three years of his tenure with the Terps, the Fridge sits in a green chair thanks to the subsequent mediocrity. He is in good standing with his alma mater, and he will likely retire on his own terms, but he needs to effect a return to ten win seasons to feel good about it.

North Carolina had some good moments in their first season under Butch Davis, but they have a long way to go. Davis sits on a green chair as he aims to return the Tar Heels to a bowl for the first time since 2005. Basketball will always be king at Carolina, but they brought Davis in to lead them to the extraordinary heights he saw at Miami.

North Carolina State had a poor start under new coach Tom O’Brien. However, they appeared to progress greatly and looked headed for a bowl game until they got bitchslapped 37-0 by Maryland in the home finale. By no means is that a stain on O’Brien, who sits on a green chair. It will be interesting to see how much noise the Wolfpack make in their second season under O’Brien and whether their nice run in the second half of the season or the Maryland ambush was a sign of things to come.

Virginia had its best season in years and saved the job of Al Groh, who needed a big season to remain at his alma mater. The former New York Jets coach is on the yellow seat, as the fans and administration expect more good things to come and will rapidly lose patience if 2008 is anything like their first and last games of the 2007 season.

Virginia Tech wons its second consecutive ACC championship and its third in four years, thus cementing coach Frank Beamer’s status in the blue chair and likely elevating him to the unofficial best coach in the conference. As long as the Hokies continue to content for championships, Beamer can stay until he decides to leave.

Wake Forest followed up its fantastic 2006 season with a very good 2007, making Jim Grobe the first coach to take the Demon Deacons to consecutive bowl games. Grobe sits on a green chair currently, but that could be upgraded should he continue to direct unprecedented success in Winston-Salem.