Fourth and Dumb

The Great Conference Realignment of 2010 is now underway!  You, too, can watch with whatever range of emotions you desire or desire to be assaulted into feeling as the Big 12 Conference is torn apart like Simon in Lord of the Flies.

While buzz has been going on for a week now based on sources who wish to remain anonymous and officials of various corporeal bodies have been meeting in varying degrees of secrecy, the first substantive moves appear to be underway.

• On Wednesday evening, Nebraska started the fall of the dominoes by making its move into the Big 10 camp.  The Big 10 will have 12 members, enough for a championship game the first weekend of December, but it would be foolish to expect them to declare themselves sated on corn.  Meanwhile, as it now stands, the Big 12 Championship Game cannot be played no matter how much Dr. Pepper is supplied.
• On Thursday morning, Colorado landed a punch on the shrinking great plains conference from the opposite side by announcing it was heading to the Pac 10.  The Big 12 is now down to ten, as equal a misnomer as the Big 10 with 12 teams, and the Pac-10 has entered the land of the misnomer by taking itself to 11.  Given 11 is a crappy number, a 12th member for the Pac-10 cannot be far behind.
• Not a substantial update, but DanGo points out Utah is a likely candidate for the 12-spot in the Pac-10.  However, Utah would be a consolation prize, because Texas is the crown jewel of the Great Conference Realignment.  Utah is only headed to the Pac-10 if they are rebuffed by Texas, and if they are rebuffed by Texas, the Big 12 will survive.  However, if Texas heads west, they will be followed by the remainder of the Big 12 South ex Baylor.  The Pac-10 will expand to 16, and the Big 12 is headed to the ICU.
• Friday afternoon update: Four days after the decision was delayed, the foregone conclusion came true: Boise State will join the Mountain West in 2011.  The Mountain West takes another step toward a BCS automatic bid and leaves itself available to collect remnants of the Big 12 like Kansas if they are not taken by one of the bigger conferences.  After all, while Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Missouri would make sense to be in the Big Ten from a cultural and aesthetic viewpoint, the ultimate factor is money, and those schools are not the most enticing options for the Big Ten.
• Friday later afternoon update: The bigwigs at the University of Texas are meeting Tuesday morning to discuss defecting to the Pac-10.  Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are set to cut their ties with the Big 12 the moment Texas does, while Texas A&M is also casting longing glances at the SEC.  The next major step in the collapse of the Big 12 should come Tuesday afternoon, unless the Big Ten or perhaps another conference makes a move first.
• Monday morning update: Nothing “official” happened over the weekend, but it appears Texas A&M’s flirtation with the SEC has gotten really serious.  In the event A&M heads east instead of west to the Pac-10, Kansas would take their spot on the Pac-10’s wishlist.  That being said, Texas might be having a change of heart if the Big 12 is willing to draw up an offer the Longhorns cannot refuse and would make them the head honcho of a ten-team conference by all metrics.  Even if Texas A&M defects to the SEC, Texas could stay to be the head of a nine-team conference.  One thing that has not changed is the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech will follow Texas wherever the Horns go.  The number of scenarios has blossomed over the weekend, and the projected timeline has become fuzzy.  We could know the ultimate fate of the Big 12 by Monday evening.
• Final update on Monday evening: The Great Realignment will be a more low-key affair than expected.  Texas has decided to remain in the Big 12.  Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will remain in the Big 12.  The Big 12 will soldier on with ten teams in 2011.  The first act of this morality play is over, but the realignment mojo could become active again.  The next move we expect to see will be the Pac-10 add a 12th team, likely Utah, before realignment goes on the back burner and actual football begins.  See you then!