Fourth and Dumb

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!  While we count our blessings and watch lots of football, chew on these storylines in the penultimate week of the regular season.  Presenting the express, tryptophan-ravaged, truncated version of this periodical.

1.  Which teams will earn spots in their conference’s championship games.

2.  Which teams will clinch their conference championships.

3.  Whether Maryland can avert its worst season ever.

1.  Which teams will earn spots in their conference’s championship games. If you are a fan of division races that remain undecided until the fading light of the last Saturday in November, then 2009 was not the year for you.  We have known for weeks both officially and unofficially that Florida and Alabama will play for the SEC crown in Atlanta.  Last week’s action sealed the deal on the Texas-Nebraska matchup in the Big XII Championship Game and the Georgia Tech-Clemson throwdown in the ACC Championship Game.  Instead, it is the two other conferences that stage a thirteenth game the first weekend of December that remain in flux, but not for very much longer.

In the Mid-American Conference, Central Michigan is the West representative, courtesy of Northern Illinois dropping a game at Ohio.  That loss averted a winner-take-all match Friday between the Huskies and Chippewas.  Instead, the main storyline in that game will the final home appearance of the poor man’s Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour.  However, uncertainly remains in the East.  Thanks to that Ohio victory over NIU, Temple’s visit to Ohio Friday will serve as the de facto East division championship game.  Ohio is 6-1 and Temple is 7-0.  Will it be the Bobcats taking on CMU in Detroit, or will the best Temple season in decades write itself another chapter at Ford Field?

Conference USA is yet to be decided, but that will change Saturday.  Houston and Southern Methodist come into the weekend with 5-2 records, but the key component is Houston’s earlier win over the Mustangs.  The Cougars need only defeat crosstown rival Rice to advance to the Conference USA Championship Game, while SMU needs Houston to drop that game and win their game against similarly terrible Tulane.  If somehow both contenders lose this weekend, Houston advances.  In the East, their side’s spot next week comes down to the winner-take-all showdown between 5-2 Southern Mississippi and 6-1 East Carolina.  That game will also help determine where the game takes place, for Conference USA holds their championship game at the stadium of the combatant with the best record.  If East Carolina wins, then the Pirates will host the game no matter what.  If Southern Miss is victorious, then the tiebreakers will determine whether the game will be in Texas or Mississippi.

2.  Which teams will clinch their conference championships. Texas Christian has already earned a share of the Mountain West championship, but they would own it outright with a win over 42-point underdog New Mexico.  Should the Lobos lay claim to the biggest point spread upset ever, then TCU would share the title with the winner of the Utah Holy War between Utah and Brigham Young University.  Since the Horned Frogs are likely headed to the BCS party, the winner of Utah-BYU is probably headed for the Maaco Bowl Las Vegas.

Believe it or not, Boise State has not yet earned the Western Athletic Conference title.  It is understandable that the Broncos have higher pursuits on their mind, but those aspirations are for naught if they do not secure their conference.  We bring in Nevada, which is on an eight-game winning streak after starting 0-3.  The 7-0 Wolf Pack will lock down the conference title with a win, while Boise State is the WAC champion with a win and another victory next week against New Mexico State.  Nevada provides the last realistic chance for the Broncos to get knocked off this year, but the Wolf Pack will need to play a superior game indeed to make it happen.

In the Sun Belt, Troy can claim an undisputed conference championship with a win over Louisiana Lafayette.  However, the Trojans already have clinched their trip to the New Orleans Bowl over 6-1 Middle Tennessee thanks to the head-to-head advantage.  In the event the Trojans lose, MTSU can share the crown with a victory at Louisiana Monroe.

Among the major conferences, the Big Ten is already decided, but the Big East and Pac 10 will require another week of games for their champions to be determined.

3.  Whether Maryland can avert its worst season ever. Time for a local story.  On Saturday, Maryland has a chance to do something it has never done before: lose ten games in a season.  No one linked in any way with this program would have imagined such a catastrophe coming into the season.  The consensus was that the team had many issues to resolve, including the offensive line, but that they were secure with a solid quarterback, some good running backs, and a defense that was going to assume a more attacking role.  Surely this team, at worse, would break even or maybe just fall short at 5-7, right?

For the most part, the defense played well throughout the season.  However, there were many instances where the defense just gave out (Rutgers), blew it when that final stop was needed (Florida State), had a flat-out terrible game (North Carolina State), and was a non-factor (Virginia Tech).  The biggest indictment on the defense was their inability to force many turnovers.  As a result, any mistakes by the offense were magnified.  And those mistakes were many.  Thanks to an unsettled offensive line, Chris Turner has had a poor senior season.  The lowlight was five turnovers against Rutgers.  The running game was frequently grounded, forcing Turner to go to the air, with predictably bad results.  The special teams were not an area of pride.  While Nick Ferrara has been decent as a kicker, his reliability has been the difference between the horrendous season we see now and a 4-8 or 5-7 season that does not portend doom.

As a result of the historic incompetence of 2009, Ralph Friedgen may be on the hot seat going into the final game of the season.  With the succession plan in place, everyone thought Maryland was set to usher the Fridge into retirement in 2011.  However, that assumed more of average play of the past five seasons.  With this year’s collapse (and imagine how much worse it be had the Terps not inexplicably defeated Atlantic division champion Clemson), it may take a win over Boston College in front of a half-empty stadium on a cool, late November afternoon to keep Friedgen around until the start of the James Franklin regime.