Fourth and Dumb

1.  Whether there will be clarification in the Atlantic Coast Conference division races.

2.  Whether the Big Ten Conference will come down to November 14 in Columbus.

3.  Whether Texas becomes set to put a sleeperhold on the Big XII Conference.

4.  Whether two losses is crippling in the Pacific 10 Conference.

5.  Which teams will remain eligible to be Bowling with the Stars.

1.  Whether there will be clarification in the Atlantic Coast Conference division races. Duke beat Maryland for the first time in ten years, but that was expected and was far from the most earth-moving results of the weekend.  Georgia Tech took their totally awesome triple option to Virginia and got their first win in Charlottesville since 41-38, which is pretty big news.  However, it was the result in Miami that finally put some definition to this season’s conference race.  However, keep in mind we could find ourselves back in the chaotic position after Week 9.

We have definition because Clemson won in overtime at Miami.  Beyond being a fantastic win for the Tigers, clearly the best under the young regime of Dabo Swinney, it stamps Clemson as the favorite in the Atlantic division.  (Remember, if you are having doubts about the words in front of your face, re-read the last sentence of the first paragraph.)  While every team has either two or three losses, it is Clemson that has wins over the other two teams with two losses.  Tigers, meet driver’s seat.  If we can ignore that strange loss at Maryland, the Tigers are the closest thing to a dominant force in the Atlantic.

However, it was not Clemson’s rise but Miami’s fall that was the big story, given what is at stake in the Coastal division.  Miami’s loss was their second, snuffing out any remote national championship hopes, and likely dooms their chances to make an appearance in Tampa in December unless they decide to take a vacation there after the South Florida game.  Georgia Tech now is top coat in the Coastal, thanks to their head-to-head over Virginia Tech.  They sit happy at 5-1, and with only Duke and Wake Forest left on the conference schedule, they should not have much trouble making it to 7-1 and taking the tiebreaker to Tampa.  Surely a Georgia Tech-Clemson rematch on December 5 gets you excited, right?

2.  Whether the Big Ten Conference will come down to November 14 in Columbus. This week we offer our comforts to Chris Borglum, who continues to suffer from the misadventures of the Big Ten team that just will not die, Iowa.  Iowa kept their dream season alive with a Ricky Stanzi slant touchdown pass to Marvin McNutt as time expired to escape Michigan State 15-13.  Unfortunately for our Gator pal, Indiana and Northwestern are next for the Hawkeyes.  Unless they decide to play with fire in a way similar to the 2002 Ohio State team, and get burned, Iowa will be 10-0 heading into the showdown with Ohio State.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, they bounced back from the shocking loss at Purdue with a Gopher clubbing extravaganza.  The Buckeyes get a breather of their own when New Mexico State comes to town on Halloween, but instead of an easy time the first weekend of November, they have the fortune of heading to Penn State for what will not be the game of the year, but will be very important in the conference race.  Speaking of Penn State, they clobbered Michigan to win in the Big House for the first time since 1994 1996.  The Wolverines are now officially reduced to the spoiler role, while the Nittany Lions have to tame the Wildcats in Evanston before the aforementioned game with the Buckeyes.

While the top of the conference is shaping up for the home stretch, the pecking order at the bottom is already hardening.  Illinois is on a beeline for 0-8, but unfortunately for the Illini fans, there remain two nonconference games after Big Ten play concludes, and Ron Zook is coming back for 2010.  Somehow 1-11 may dislodge that notion despite a massive payout required for cutting down the Zooker, which is just cold.

3.  Whether Texas becomes set to put a sleeperhold on the Big XII Conference. If the BCS standings are to be believed, the answer is yes, as Texas is above the cut zone and Oklahoma State, sitting at #14, is the only remaining Big XII school in the BCS top 25.  Coming up next is the Longhorns visiting the Cowboys as UT tries to lock down the Big 12 South, while OSU, 3-0 in conference, will aim to keep the competition going for a few more weeks by getting a crucial head-to-head and deal Texas its first loss.

While the action at the head of the class is winding down, the fun at the back end is just heating up.  While Sam Bradford is hanging it up for good in Norman, Landry Jones is set to be the man as Oklahoma finishes its season strong.  They showed they are still a very good team by suffocating Kansas on the road.  Meanwhile, a funny thing happened on the way to the meat locker, as Texas A&M came out of nowhere (with nowhere defined as a 62-14 bludgeoning by K-State) to crush Texas Tech, which looked to be doing just fine in 2009.

However, it is the north where mediocrity lives.  In a situation that can best be described as a return to the mid 2000s (or if a contemporary example is necessary, the ACC Atlantic), the Big XII North is woeful.  We may another year in which Baylor is the only victim from the South.  While preseason division favorites Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas bring up the rear, Kansas State inexplicably leads the way at 3-1, while right behind them is perennial punching bag Iowa State, which is turning into quite an interesting story.  You see, Paul Rhoads is doing a pretty good job in Ames because the Cyclones just went on the road and won in Lincoln for the first time since 1977, no doubt fueled by an OBSCENE +8 turnover margin.  Iowa State is 5-3, which allows us to draw upon the gift that keeps on giving, Gene “5-19″ Chizik, who after a strong start still has yet to achieve his sixth win at Auburn. Just sayin’.

4.  Whether two losses is crippling in the Pacific 10 Conference. We have yet to exit October, so the answer is still in the future, but the pretenders continue to gradually be picked off.  This week it was Arizona State, which flatted on the Farm to join Stanford in two loss land.  Another player to bite the dust was Oregon State, which was not unexpected, considering they were playing at USC.  Those teams join forgotten California in the middled middle above the teams whose 2009 hopes are o-vah, Washington, UCLA, and Washington State, which is headed for 0-9.

Above the mess in the middle are the contenders.  Arizona stayed in the mix with a home win over UCLA.  The Wildcats, whose only conference loss is due to a series of freak plays at Washington, still has USC and Oregon ahead of them, allowing them to stick around, rise in the rankings, and sink the teeth in when the time is right.  That, or get their teeth knocked down their throat.  Unlike Arizona and USC, Oregon was the cock of the walk in Seattle, dominating early and keeping their knee on the Huskies late ahead of the likely Pac-10 game of the year in Eugene next week.

5.  Which teams will remain eligible to be Bowling with the Stars. It was the final game of the weekend, but the result was just as familiar.  Boise State was all business as they travelled to the islands and spanked (in a non-sexual, figureative way) the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 54-9.  The Broncos are now six games away from perfection, but there was trouble in paradise when the BCS standings came out Sunday.

That is because TCU put together an even more impressive performance.  Instead of kicking around a 2-win little ‘un, TCU went to Mormon country and went Nauvoo on BYU.  We can now eliminate BYU from the BCS discussion for certain, because two losses is only going to be good enough for the Las Vegas Bowl.  But for all the bad two lopsided home losses did to BYU’s resume, it did all the good in the world for the victorious Horned Frogs, because they have seized their spot at the front of the line.

That is because Boise State has begun their inevitable slide in the standings.  For all the benefits accruing with Oregon’s winning streak since the Ducks got pantsed in Boise on opening night, it can only go so far to counteract not playing anyone else of substance.  No, Idaho and Nevada are not substantial.  The poll damage has been minimal so far, but the computers are starting to reward TCU for its tougher schedule.  The BYU win was quite substantial, but the Clemson over Miami result may have been just as big.  The end result in Week 8 of the BCS standings is that TCU has done their proposed leap (how appropriate) over Boise State, and while the Horned Frogs are only 0.014 ahead of the Broncos in the BCS standings, the die has been cast, and if both teams win out, it is TCU that is headed to the big game.

Do we even consider other contenders at this point?  There are two other members of Le Petit Cinq in the polls this week.  Houston sits at #18, but they are very unlikely to rise high enough even if they run the table and TCU and Boise get exposed.  That is because Utah, sitting at #16, is likely going to stay in front of them as the Utes try to get to 11-1.  The big advantage of the Utes is they play TCU in three weeks for their shot at a marquee win.  We will revisit Utah when the time comes, and see if the situation has improved that might allow them to go to the BCS for the second year in a row.