1.  Which teams will walk the walk (of shame) after losing to a Football Championship Subdivision team.

2.  How the warm breath of the NCAA affects the openers of teams in the crosshairs.

3.  Which teams leave a searing pain in their rivals in the opening weekend.

4.  Who emerges from uncertain quarterback situations in the opening weekend.

5.  Who remains in contention on America’s Got Mid-Major Talent.

1.  Which teams will walk the walk (of shame) after losing to a Football Championship Subdivision team. There are 39 matchups this week in which an FBS team welcomes an FCS team to their house.  Usually, the FBS team makes a lot of money from a home game and whips the FCS team, which heads home with a nice paycheck for their trouble.  However, the FBS team often has the last laugh, leaving town with the money and a win.  Five teams left their home stadium with their heads held low in 2009.  The following five games features a team that could be ripe for the picking:

* Richmond at Virginia: It is the first game of the Mike London administration in Charlottesville.  The first opponent is his old school just down I-64.  The Spiders lose a whole bunch of seniors from a team that was a regular player in the FCS playoffs, but that should not keep them from giving the Cavaliers a scare.  Like the first stage after a rest day, a football coach’s first game can go either way.

* North Dakota at Idaho: The Fighting Sioux (or whatever their milquetoast political correct nickname is) are making the transition from Division II to FCS, but they could give a lot of trouble to an Idaho team whose expectations are much higher after a breakthrough 2009.

* Villanova at Temple: An old mainstay in this list.  The Owls contended in the MAC East and made it to their first bowl game since 1984.  That being said, they are not so good that they are not likely to struggle, at least for a few quarters, against a Villanova team that is regularly in the playoff hunt in the FCS.  Not that it might make a difference, but Temple upset Villanova in last year’s Big Five basketball action.

* Samford at Florida State: Are you kidding me?  Actually, the Seminoles were in deep dog doo-doo until they came alive deep in the fourth quarter to prevent the massive upset by Jacksonville State in 2009.  It is Jimbo Fisher’s first game as the head man, which means this will be a game to watch until the Seminoles take an insurmountable lead…if they do.

* Elon at Duke: Duke is another regular in this space.  Thaddeus Lewis is gone at the helm, and Elon was pretty good last season, so this could be a potential conquest from the Phoenix of Alamance County.

2.  How the warm breath of the NCAA affects the openers of teams in the crosshairs. There is nothing like eligibility crises to throw uncertainty into the delusions of glory every team has before the first kickoff of the season.  While many schools are facing the facts about players not up to the task academically, the scent of money is the blood in the water for the hammerhead shark that is the new NCAA, a stark contrast from the kinder and gentler NCAA of the Myles Brand era.

Nowhere are these crises as big as at the flagship schools of the Carolinas.  In addition to his role in some fun in Miami (more on that later), tight end Weslye Saunders was one of nine University of South Carolina players who lived for several months at the Whitney Hotel in downtown Columbia without ponying up the accommodations fees in part or full from his own bank account.  Saunders is officially suspended for the Gamecocks’ opener against Southern Mississippi for “violating team rules,” an ambiguous charge that could be code for “doing anything that causes the NCAA to snoop around Columbia.”  Several more players, including four starters, are under the gun and liable to be held out against the Golden Eagles, a situation that could cause the game to be much closer than expected.  Steve Spurrier could go nuclear on his visor (and his team) should these missing parts be the key to a USM win.

If that is not enough, then the situation in Chapel Hill blows past the doors of ostentatious.  The keystone of the troubles at the University of North Carolina is Marvin Austin, who is guilty of tweeting irresponsibly about a wild night in Miami.  Austin is suspended indefinitely while the investigations are ongoing, although it is yet another violation of team rules.  Austin might not be the only Tar Heel on the chopping block; up to 15 other players may be held out of their season opener, including seven starters in their otherworldly defense.  Unlike the Gamecocks, who get a non-Les Six member at Williams-Brice Stadium in game one, the Tar Heels are headed to Atlanta to face LSU in the Chick-fil-A College Kickoff.  UNC has been touted as a darkhorse contender for the ACC title thanks to their Butch Davis-recruited defense, but those dreams could be history if the NCAA investigation has sharp teeth and forces their offense to be greater than its low baseline.  Even the Great Leader is upset at these turn of events (warning: possibly NSFW and liable to be DMCAtakedowned).  We will find out this weekend how many players are left home and how that affects their kickoff in original chicken sandwich land.

3.  Which teams leave a searing pain in their rivals in the opening weekend. It does not come close to Ohio State-Michigan, but several teams will be facing off against their in-state or in-city rivals this lovely Labor Day weekend.  Think of how awesome Florida A&M’s band is going to sound when they visit Miami for a paycheck game or how hate-filled the Miami-Florida matchup will be as they battle over a canoe in Gainesville (wait, Miami from Oxford, Ohio?  nevermind…) as you take in the following rivalries:

* The Arch Rivalry is the first meal of the day on your Saturday rivals slate.  Illinois, entering Ron Zook’s final season (they hope), travels to the Edward Jones Dome to face a Missouri team that took a step back last season but will look to challenge in the final year of Big 12 North action in the second year of Blaine Gabbert’s time under center.  Perhaps Ron Zook can start a rally for the Illini and make it to a bowl game, but it needs to begin here.  The Tigers will have to get it done without Derrick Washington, who was booted from the program for sexual assault.

* Another lame duck coach, Dan Hawkins, leads Colorado up to Fort Collins to take on the Colorado State Rams.  Unlike Colorado, it was a shock that the Rams finished 3-9 after a fine debut season for Steve Fairchild in 2008.  One of those wins was over the Buffaloes in Boulder.  Hawkins is clearly on the hotter coaching seat, but a loss here for the Rams could inject some doubt into the Fairchild era as well.

* Both Kentucky and Louisville debut new head coaches–Joker Phillips and Charlie Strong–but it is UK that is in better shape after Rich Brooks’ retirement from the Wildcat sideline and the wreckage of the Steve Kragthorpe era in the Ville.  One coach is going to be 1-0 after this game; offensive-descended Phillips needs it more now with a dense SEC slate to come, while the defensive Strong could use a dazzling start to his Cardinals career.

* Purdue enters its second season under Danny Hope, but that will be brushed under the carpet before the game because the big story is the premiere of new coach Brian Kelly in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus.  Given how new coaches are typically a positive shot in the arm for the Fighting Irish, no one expects the Boilermakers to win this in-state battle.  Imagine the reaction if Purdue heads back to West Lafayette with a W.

* Navy and Maryland get together at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore for a Labor Day battle at which yours truly and his Navy-descended, Maryland-educated fiancée will be in attendance.  In the last edition of the Crab Bowl in 2005, the Terps came back to win 23-20.  Maryland went on to finish 5-6 as the Ralph Friedgen era lost more of the momentum of his dazzling debut in 2001.  Friedgen’s job security is now non-existant and after a horrid 2009, the Midshipmen will be favored to run all over the Terps with their totally awesome triple option, orchestrated by the new master, Ken Niumatalolo.  Will the Terps emerge victorious in Baltimore and give hope that 2010 will not be another disaster?

4.  Who emerges from uncertain quarterback situations in the opening weekend. One area with which South Carolina will not have problems with the NCAA is at the quarterback situation.  You would think Stephen Garcia would be the man after 15+ starts in the past two years, but Steve Spurrier is not impressed with his progress…or lack thereof.  Connor Shaw, a freshman, will also be in the mix for the Gamecocks.  Garcia will likely get the start, but he and Shaw will be part of a platoon against Southern Mississippi and maybe even against Georgia until Spurrier figures out which man gets to be the man.

The situation at Michigan is more extreme, as there are three men in contention for the nod as Rich Rod’s starter against Connecticut.  Tate Forcier, the starter for much of last year, has been lackadaisical in the off-season, leaving open the door for Denard Robinson and freshman Devin Gardner to seize the starting job.  Year three of the Rich Rod era could be off to an inauspicious start if the quarterback situation is not settled quickly and decisively, unless keeping the QBs on edge is part of Rich Rod’s grand plan to make it to 2011.

5.  Who remains in contention on America’s Got Mid-Major Talent. Before we point out games of significance for the have nots of college football, here are some ground rules for who will get featured in this space:

* A team from outside of Les Six–ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC–must go undefeated to have a chance of being selected for a BCS bowl game.  Note that is it becoming increasingly likely that a one-loss team could be selected, but that one-loss team would need to have a sparkling record otherwise and have the loss be a close one.  A one-loss team from outside of the power conferences has yet to make it to the BCS party and the possibility will be examined skeptically until it happens.

* A team must knock off one or more challengers from Les Six.  Without a signature win, a mid-major candidate has very little chance of breaking through to the BCS promised land.

* A team must be ranked in the polls.  Since the polls are a major part of the BCS, any potential BCS crashers must start the season with some hype.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that a team comes out of nowhere and reaches the BCS; however, a team that starts out of the polls will need to get some nice signature wins to break into the polls and put themselves in the spotlight.

There were three teams from outside of Les Six that were in the pre-season top 25: Boise State (3 AP), TCU (6 AP), and Utah (23 Coaches).  BYU and Houston are under the radar and will likely make an appearance here if they emerge 1-0 this week.

* The Utah Utes welcome a ranked Pittsburgh team to Rice-Eccles Stadium.  Utah, which will be heading to the Pac-10 next season, would surely appreciate one last effort to qualify for the BCS the hard way.  These teams last met in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl in which Urban Meyer’s Utes, the original BCS Buster, crushed the Panthers 35-7.  The present Panthers, coached by Dave Wannstedt, are the pre-season favorites in the Big East and hope to make a statement with a fantastic road win.  Should the Utes emerge 1-0, they are off to the races until a stiff November during which they get visits from TCU and BYU and visit Notre Dame, which could be flying high by then under Brian Kelly.

* TCU, the loser of last season’s mid-major brawl in the Fiesta Bowl, hopes to start the season off right with its one shot at a BCS scalp.  The Horned Frogs head over to the Cowboys Stadium to play the Oregon State Beavers, who hover near the bottom of the top 25.  TCU’s only shots at glory after this weekend are an October visit from BYU and the aforementioned tilt with Utah.

* Boise State is the early favorite from the mid-major ranks to crash the BCS again.  They come in as the highest ranked non-Les Six team in the pre-season polls ever, so if there is any candidate from the have nots to make it to the BCS at 11-1, they are it.  They are going to be tested immediately in what may be a do-or-die game.  The Broncos head over to FedExField for a massive Labor Day night showdown with Virginia Tech.  Boise State certainly has the talent to hang with and beat the Hokies; the question is whether they can pull it off in a stadium that will be pro-VT.  The more interesting question will be the fallout from a loss.  Either way, it is one of five things we will learn this weekend.

Real quick, let’s recap how last season turned out.

In our annual Bowl Challenge, we’ve been beaten by one of our readers for the second straight year. Brice Russ, linguistics Ph.D. student at The Ohio State University, claims to know nothing about football. He started out 0-3 in bowl season this past year, came back to go 9-1 on the New Year’s Eve/Day bowls and picked 24 of 4 games correctly to win the “title.” He was the only person to pick more than 21 bowl games correctly, and for that he has both my commendation and admiration.

Here’s the final standings among your four illustrious writers and the combined guest record.

DanGo 90-56
Chris 85-61
Fred 81-65
Guest 80-64
DanGr 76-60

I don’t like to gloat – but holy crap, I won?! Bet that doesn’t happen again.

I want thank everyone who picked as a guest last year. Special congratulations go to Evan Nagler, Chad Sinness, Ricky Compton, and Mike Cheyne, who each went 6-2 in their week to tie as the best of the guests. And we’re doing it again this year! If you want to get in on the guest picking action, post an email address here and I’ll get in touch with you.

For week one this year, our guest is Matthew Worner. Matthew Worner is a 2008 Master of Public Administration graduate from Virginia Tech’s Center for Public Adminsitration and Policy. He is an information technology auditor with one of the national security agencies (not disclosed… if it was, well…) in Washington, DC. Matthew is also probably one of the few Hokies that you know from North Dakota (maybe the only person you know from North Dakota). In his spare time, Matthew is an avid follower of the Hokies, is also enrolled in an Executive Master of Policy Management graduate program at Georgetown University. You can find him on Twitter at @HokieGuru.

We’ve got a decent slate of games for week one this year. Let’s go!

Read on for commentary and analysis.

Northern Illinois (+5) at Iowa State, Thursday September 2, 8:00pm Fox Sports Regional

DanGr: Damn you Fred for picking this game to pick.  Neither team is anything special, so I will go with the BCS and home team.

Connecticut (+3) at Michigan, Saturday September 4, 3:30pm ABC

Chris: Rich Rod’s buttocks begin scorching from his hot chair after this loss at home to the Huskies.

DanGo: Randy Edsall brings back 17 starters and is riding high. Michigan has fans yelling for Rich Rodriguez’s head on a platter and had a minor quarterback controversy less than two weeks before the start of the season. The Huskies will have a tough challenge playing their opening game in the Big House, and I think Michigan will squeak it out.

DanGr: As is standard in Ann Arbor during the Rich Rodriguez regime, the 2010 season will start 1-0 as UConn has enough offensive troubles for the beleaguered Michigan D to look good for a game.  Denard Robinson will seize the starting quarterback job (for now) on the day the Big House once again becomes the biggest house.

Fred: Michigan over Connecticut in a squeaker that will depress everyone in Ann Arbor. Enjoy your eight wins!

Matthew: I’ll take the road win for UConn.

Richmond (+7) at Virginia, Saturday September 4, 6:00pm

DanGo: This is a tough game to pick, as former Richmond head coach is now Virginia’s head coach. He’s got Richmond’s knowledge, but Virginia’s talent. He’s had a fantastic recruiting year, making serious dents in what was almost exclusively Virginia Tech territory. Richmond’s got the talent, though, and I’m going to pick them to win in a squeaker.

DanGr: Virginia will make Mike London’s debut as the home coach at Scott Stadium a success, but not before four quarters of tension against London’s old side.  Sadly, it will be the biggest highlight of the season aside from the Maryland game.

Fred: Virginia isn’t going to be the worst I-A team thanks to Indiana, Vandy and Washington St.

Matthew: Virginia wins… and this game will be close all four quarters.

Washington (+2) at Brigham Young, Saturday September 4, 7:00pm CBS College Sports

DanGo: The Huskies ride Jake “The Hurt” Locker to a win over a tough BYU team breaking in a new quarterback.

DanGr: I am not so convinced Jack Locker has the pieces around him to be victorious against a Cougars team that will find it quarterback of the present in the heat of the moment.  BYU by a late touchdown.

Fred: Haha BYU. Washington is Jake Locker and 10 people holding up “will work for food” signs.

#22 Oregon State (+13.5) at #7 Texas Christian, September 4, 7:45pm ESPN

Chris: The ‘Quizz and his brother will make some big plays to remind us all that TCU is not in a major conference.

DanGo: I think I actually trust the Vegas oddsmakers more than I do pollsters. Taking TCU here and thinking their stingy D will shut down the Rodgers brothers.

DanGr: TCU is best known for defense, but with the Rodgers brothers in a consistent jailbreak, it will be the TCU offense, led by 369 passing yards from Andy Dalton, that saves the day for the Horned Frogs in a shootout.

#16 Louisiana State (-6.5) at #18 North Carolina, Saturday September 4, 8:00pm ABC

DanGo: There’s just too much distraction going on down Tobacco Road for the Tarheels to be competitive.

DanGr: Perhaps T.J. Yates can come out of nowhere and be a more-than-competent quarterback, but the LSU defense is probably going to squeeze him dry, allowing the LSU offense to put on a show against the massively-depleted Tar Heel defense.

Matthew: It will be interesting how many of the UNC starters play considering the NCAA probe there.

#12 Wisconsin (-20.5) at UNLV, Saturday September 4, 11:00pm Versus

DanGo: It’s a game with a 20-point favorite in week 1. What else is there to say?

DanGr: I picture tumbleweed and a Badger victory in the desert.  Scott Tolzien will make the Rebels know what hit them.

#5 Boise State (-2) vs. #6 Virginia Tech, Monday September 6, 8:00pm ESPN

Chris: Sorry, so many Hokies here, but Boise’s offense should really be scary this year. But don’t worry: y’all will get ten dull wins and a good bowl once again.

DanGo: It’s a homer pick for me, but I just don’t buy the Boise State hype. They’re able to get up for the one big game a year that they play – and they always play tough; there’s no way this game is going to be a romp for either team. This is going match up arguably the best offensive coordinator against the best defensive coordinator in college football today – what happens on the other side of the ball is going to define the game. If Virginia Tech’s offense can execute and get past the Bronco defense, then the Hokies will emerge victorious.

DanGr: This is Boise State’s One Big Game.  The Bronco defense will be geeked up for this.  The Bronco offense has some kind of magic up its sleeves to serve up like the Spanish Inquisition.  This is a team of destiny.  Watch me eat my words, but I will believe the hype until the hype is disproven.

So this back-up offensive lineman, Tyler Patrick Thomas, of Oregon State was found drunk and naked in some poor stranger’s house. I can only imagine how freaked out your typical Joe Suburb (like myself) would be to find a huge, naked dude drunkenly rummaging through his pantry in the middle of the night.

My favorite part of the story is that Thomas allegedly got into a three-point stance and charged when cops told him to get on the ground. Presumably he was going to try to pancake them. Too bad his position coach wasn’t there to remind him to get his ass up in the air, though on second thought no one would want that in such a situation.

You’ve probably heard that a radio reporter in Fayetteville was fired after being admonished by Bobby “Arkansas Razorback to the Core!” Petrino for wearing her Gators baseball cap to a media session.

Renee Gork, the reporter in question, is indeed a Florida grad; hasn’t she been punished enough just by having to live in Fayetteville?

Anyway, back to the story, Gork apparently asked ol’ Bobby a question, and after answering, he said something about how he was not going to answer any more of her questions while she was wearing that hat.

You’ll excuse me for finding this kind of amusing. I’m guessing Petrino wouldn’t have known for sure that Arkansas and Florida were in the same conference when he got hired, though I guess that’s not fair since he did spend 12 games in Auburn as their OC when they went undefeated under Terry Bowden, one of his SEVEN stops in the last 14 seasons.

I suppose you can’t blame Bobby, whose panties are probably still in a bit of a bunch over some tough calls in his close loss at the Swamp last year (not to mention the beating from the previous season). And there’s absolutely no question that Gork shouldn’t have worn any kind of team gear to a media session as a reporter. Way back in my youth, when my co-bloggers here were shittin’ yeller (or at least more so), I covered the Gators for the Independent Florida Alligator, so I got to go to post-practice sessions and regular media lunches and such when Galen Hall was coach, and though most of the pro hacks I worked with had graduated from UF, no one would have dreamed of wearing a Gators hat (or a Bama hat, or a Yankees jacket, or a Steelers shirt) to anything while working. It’s just not done.

However, Petrino didn’t need to make a stink about it out loud in front of the other hacks. That just guaranteed that crazy fans would hassle the station and kill this woman’s job. Of course, there’s been some boo-hooing about her losing that job, but something tells me she’ll be fine. Maybe she’ll be one of the gals on the next The Bachelor or something.

At least she wasn’t wearing a Louisville or Falcons hat; that might have gotten ol’ Bobby to pop her one.

PS–12 DAYS TILL THE FIRST GAME!!!!

1.  There are lots of thoughts out there that the 64 chosen teams will break away from the NCAA, but keep in mind the various benefits the present arrangement provides.  The most significant is by continuing to operate under the illusion that athletic departments are good faith portions of universities that are looking out for the good of the student-athletes, the universities and athletic departments enjoy certain public relations and tax benefits.  Those benefits could be severely tested if certain people in the Justice Department got their way and/or the conferences and universities are too brazen in their greed.  For an example of public relations at work, just look for all the mentions of the academic benefits of the conference realignments.

2.  If there are four 16-team conferences, the Plus-One bowl option suddenly becomes more palatable.  Assuming the champions of the Big 16 and Pac 16 meet in the Rose Bowl and the champions of the SEC and Big East/ACC (see #3) meet in either the Orange or Sugar Bowls, the winners of those events would advance to the closest thing to a non-mythical national championship.  However, the new and improved Mountain West could have a protest vote if they are able to maintain their status as the next best football conference.

3.  My first assumption is the merger of the Big East and ACC would keep the Big East name, but now I am not so sure the new conference would not throw out the ACC name.  If the ACC is the naming option that prevails, the basketball schools could take the Big East name and the Atlantic 10 schools that would be raided could say they are headed to a more prestigious conference.  Also, money is a bigger draw than aesthetics, so no administrator will blink an eye at Louisville and Cincinnati being in the ACC despite being 700+ miles from the ocean, no more so than the Texas schools headed to the Pac-10.

4.  How would divisions work in the new regime?  One aim of the divisions is to preserve local rivalries.  The most likely football program is each team plays the seven teams in its division and two interdivision games that rotate.

- The easiest conference to decipher is the Pac-16.  The eight schools in states on the Pacific Ocean would form the West division and the Arizona schools and Big 12 refugees would form the East division.  Almost all significant rivalries are preserved; the Arizona schools have not developed any football rivalries of note in their 32 years in the Pac-10.  The one rivalry not preserved, between Nebraska and Colorado, only developed in the 1980s and can continue out-of-conference.  As the only conference schools without an in-conference rival, Colorado and Texas Tech would likely play each other the last weekend of the regular eason.

— Pac-16 West: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA

— Pac-16 East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

- The next easiest conference to work out is the Big 16.  Iowa State and Iowa are a natural pairing.  NU, MU, KU, and KSU can work out a satisfactory rivalry arrangement among the four of them.  All major Big Ten rivalries from the eastern part of the footprint remain annual except for the Little Brown Jug.

— Big 16 West: Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

— Big 16 East: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State

- The third easiest conference to figure is the Big East.  The ridiculous Atlantic and Coastal appellations will be tossed in favor of easier South and North divisions.  Boston College and South Florida could be swapped to improve geographic cohesiveness, but the Bulls are going to be an air flight away from the nearest conference member regardless, so it will not make too big a difference for them, unless #5 happens.  None of the involved schools have rivalries, anyway.

— Big East North: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut, Boston College, Louisville, Cincinnati

— Big East South: Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Florida

- The thorniest conference is the SEC, although even then much of the conference is a slam dunk.  The SEC East is set to become an incredible beehive of hate.  Would the proposal in #5 only exacerbate the hatred?  Tennessee and Vanderbilt are moved to the SEC West because their rivalry is the most historically significant in the UT-Vandy-UK triad, and both Tennessee teams had their rivalries with schools from the west prior to the SEC expansion of 1992.

— SEC West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

— SEC East: South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Kentucky

5.  There is a mutually beneficial swap that could improve geographic cohesiveness, although it would be historically damaging: The Big East sends South Florida to the SEC in exchange for Kentucky.  Kentucky has not often been a factor in SEC football, while South Florida is more a football than basketball school.  South Florida in the SEC also gives that conference a monopoly on Florida and the Big East a monopoly on Kentucky.  Did I say something about historically damaging?  Forget it; conference realignment is all about the money!

While buzz has been going on for a week now based on sources who wish to remain anonymous and officials of various corporeal bodies have been meeting in varying degrees of secrecy, the first substantive moves appear to be underway.

• On Wednesday evening, Nebraska started the fall of the dominoes by making its move into the Big 10 camp.  The Big 10 will have 12 members, enough for a championship game the first weekend of December, but it would be foolish to expect them to declare themselves sated on corn.  Meanwhile, as it now stands, the Big 12 Championship Game cannot be played no matter how much Dr. Pepper is supplied.
• On Thursday morning, Colorado landed a punch on the shrinking great plains conference from the opposite side by announcing it was heading to the Pac 10.  The Big 12 is now down to ten, as equal a misnomer as the Big 10 with 12 teams, and the Pac-10 has entered the land of the misnomer by taking itself to 11.  Given 11 is a crappy number, a 12th member for the Pac-10 cannot be far behind.
• Not a substantial update, but DanGo points out Utah is a likely candidate for the 12-spot in the Pac-10.  However, Utah would be a consolation prize, because Texas is the crown jewel of the Great Conference Realignment.  Utah is only headed to the Pac-10 if they are rebuffed by Texas, and if they are rebuffed by Texas, the Big 12 will survive.  However, if Texas heads west, they will be followed by the remainder of the Big 12 South ex Baylor.  The Pac-10 will expand to 16, and the Big 12 is headed to the ICU.
• Friday afternoon update: Four days after the decision was delayed, the foregone conclusion came true: Boise State will join the Mountain West in 2011.  The Mountain West takes another step toward a BCS automatic bid and leaves itself available to collect remnants of the Big 12 like Kansas if they are not taken by one of the bigger conferences.  After all, while Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Missouri would make sense to be in the Big Ten from a cultural and aesthetic viewpoint, the ultimate factor is money, and those schools are not the most enticing options for the Big Ten.
• Friday later afternoon update: The bigwigs at the University of Texas are meeting Tuesday morning to discuss defecting to the Pac-10.  Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are set to cut their ties with the Big 12 the moment Texas does, while Texas A&M is also casting longing glances at the SEC.  The next major step in the collapse of the Big 12 should come Tuesday afternoon, unless the Big Ten or perhaps another conference makes a move first.
• Monday morning update: Nothing “official” happened over the weekend, but it appears Texas A&M’s flirtation with the SEC has gotten really serious.  In the event A&M heads east instead of west to the Pac-10, Kansas would take their spot on the Pac-10’s wishlist.  That being said, Texas might be having a change of heart if the Big 12 is willing to draw up an offer the Longhorns cannot refuse and would make them the head honcho of a ten-team conference by all metrics.  Even if Texas A&M defects to the SEC, Texas could stay to be the head of a nine-team conference.  One thing that has not changed is the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech will follow Texas wherever the Horns go.  The number of scenarios has blossomed over the weekend, and the projected timeline has become fuzzy.  We could know the ultimate fate of the Big 12 by Monday evening.
• Final update on Monday evening: The Great Realignment will be a more low-key affair than expected.  Texas has decided to remain in the Big 12.  Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will remain in the Big 12.  The Big 12 will soldier on with ten teams in 2011.  The first act of this morality play is over, but the realignment mojo could become active again.  The next move we expect to see will be the Pac-10 add a 12th team, likely Utah, before realignment goes on the back burner and actual football begins.  See you then!

1.  The Pacific 10 Conference will get the ball rolling by raiding the Big 12.  I will run with the six schools that are rumored to be selected for the west coast superconference: Texas (the keystone), Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado.

2.  The Big Ten Conference, already a misnomer, will become even more misnamed, until they pick up five schools and rename themselves the Big 16, especially since Conferences with Big in Their Names Greater than Ten is cleared by the drawing and quartering of the Big 12.  The Big Ten takes most of the remaining members of the Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa State.  Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Nebraska have been glancing longingly at the Big Ten in the past few months anyway, and the Kansas schools would come along as a package as well.  Iowa State also has a natural rival in Iowa.

3.  The Southeastern Conference is not going to sit on its hands while other conferences go +4 on them.  The SEC will sense weakness in the Atlantic Coast Conference and decide now is the time to raid the southern part of the conference: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.

4.  The remaining eight members of the ACC now need a place to go lest they be demoted to one of the have-nots.  The Big East will be ready and waiting to become the fourth 16-team conference.  The eight football schools of the Big East will combine with the eight ACC schools left behind by the claws of the SEC: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest.

5.  The true colors of the Big East will be revealed when the marriage between the football and basketball schools, already somewhat tenuous, has a spectacular rift.  As a result, the basketball schools will become a hot commodity for another basketball conference.  Which conference would that be?  The Atlantic 10, which actually has 14 teams, will jettison its weaker members and form a new lineup with the prized non-football schools of the Big East.

Since basketball would be the driving force in the new Atlantic 10, the new conference would likely have no more than 12 teams, although 14 is a possibility.  The eight Big East schools–Georgetown, St. John’s, Villanova, Providence, DePaul, Seton Hall, Marquette, and Notre Dame (yes, Notre Dame)–will join the cream of the present Atlantic 10–Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and George Washington–to form a high level conference for basketball.  The remaining ten schools would likely form a newer conference or, less likely, split up into a smaller conference.

6.  Even before conference expansion hit the front page in the middle of the week, Boise State was long rumored to be heading to the Mountain West Conference, bringing their roster to ten.  Does the Mountain West stop there?  If the Mountain West expands further, who would be the prime targets?  A likely scenario sees Baylor, which got disenfranchised when the big boys realigned, joins the Mountain West along with UTEP.  The next four teams in line to join the Mountain West would be Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico State, and Utah State.  However, the specter of the failed 16-team Western Athletic Conference and with an elevation to the big boy table uncertain even with Boise State, the Mountain West may stick to 12 teams…for now.

7.  The MAC and C-USA will likely remain in their present form.  There is almost no chance they benefit from the goings-on among the giants, so they have no incentive to expand beyond 12.  The WAC could be destroyed, depending on the Mountain West does.  If the WAC becomes unviable, the remnants of that conference could become part of the Sun Belt Conference, the lowest of the low.

1.  This first thought is very sobering, but it is important to keep in mind when reading about the decisions of the sport’s power brokers.  The free intent to make changes that are intended to solely or partially benefit student-athletes or fans are the exception rather than the rule.  There are enough people exhibiting good faith that changes that benefit the student-athletes and the fans do occur, but the number one focus will always be money, and let that not be forgotten.  This does not make the power brokers evil; rather, they are amoral, doing what will make the most money rather than doing what is right.

2.  There has been a lot of discussion lately on conference realignment.  Did not this happen five to seven years ago?  To review, the ACC ripped three schools from the Big East, the Big East ripped a bunch of schools from Conference USA for both basketball and football, C-USA ripped a bunch of schools from the MAC and WAC, and the WAC ripped a few schools from the Sun Belt.  It was quite a shift at the time, but it was not as earth-shattering as it seemed, since four of Les Six stayed intact.

The ACC got its conference championship game, but nothing else about expansion went right, as Florida State and Miami went into a swoon at the same time as the championship games were scheduled for Florida venues, basketball lost its double round robin, and Boston College still seems like an outsider.  The Big East actually came out in better shape, as they picked up some nice football and basketball entities at the expense of possible instability due to half of its schools not playing football (in-conference).  Conference USA clearly fell to mid-major status, but is more stable and more geographically compact.

However, with the advent of the Big Ten Network, a whole new revenue stream has appeared to tempt the power brokers, one that could accelerate college football’s transformation into a developmental league for the NFL.  There are suggestions 16-team conferences are coming soon.  You know what collection of football teams also has 16-team conferences?  The NFL!  Do you remember what happened the last time there was a 16-team conference?  The WAC split in half.  Tradition and stability will be damned as long as revenue not dependent on drawing and keeping fans is flowing in.

3.  As for specific expansion scenarios, it is just as likely that the age of the 16-team superconference begins (funny, 20 years ago the term superconference was used for 12 teams) then it is that the sea change everyone fears turns out to be the Big Ten offering Notre Dame an offer it cannot refuse.  What would the Big Ten do to sweeten the pot?  Perhaps they could offer the Domers a larger share of revenue permanently or temporarily; place them in the same division as Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue; or get the NCAA to allow Notre Dame to play 13 regular season games so they can maintain all of their non-Big Ten rivalries.

4.  However, Notre Dame joining the Big Ten would be just too easy, so lets go for a conference wrecking scenario: Missouri to the Big Ten.  Whether the rumblings from Missouri are genuine longing to be in the Big Ten or they are passive aggressively hinting to their Big 12 overlords to establish revenue equality will be established eventually, but the fact remains is if Missouri leaves the Big 12, that starts a chain reaction much like the 2003-05 realignment.  The most interesting aspect is the predations could be non-linear this time.  Several conferences, seeing the Big 12 in a huge spot of vulnerability, could take advantage of a Missouri defection to move in together and rip the Big 12 apart limb from limb.  This could get grisly, folks, about two movie ratings above the death of the Southwest Conference.

5.  A legion of four 16-team conferences is not as farfetched as you would think.  Welcome to NFL lite, and if you watch closely, you see a stream of casual college football fans running for their lives.  Would another conference be sacrificed to the gods of big money?  The most likely candidate, ironically, is the conference that started the 2003-05 realignment, the ACC, which could be ripped apart by the SEC and the Big East, with some chunks falling to C-USA.  This is getting absurd, but it may just be normal 10 years from now.

But keep in mind that Dan Marino got a 15, and he ended up pretty good. Still, it’s amusing.

So much for trying to sound like Montgomery Burns, an idea that Red Stripe has made me think would be funny. Yay, Beer, indeed!

Not too many surprises on signing day, but a couple things:

Gators get OL Chaz Green late in the afternoon to cement the overall #1 consensus class. Like every year, the boilerplate reminder that dudes still have to pan out is well taken, but note that Bama and Texas and Florida have had multiple top-five consensus classes in the last four seasons and have lived at the top of the rankings.

Kiffy showed he’s not to be taken lightly as a recruiter, snagging Huge Human Seantrel Henderson at dinner time to stay in the top ten.

As a Gator, I’m constitutionally bound to hate Tennessee, but I will always keep a soft spot in my heart for signee Da’Rick Rogers, as he said today that he picked the Vols partly because Kiffin had left. My kind of kid!

FSU has restocked the pantry, and we can expect them to be very dangerous sooner rather than later, though for next season the defense should still be a bit of a disaster.

Sigh. One problem. After today, truly college football is over for now. Let’s start counting down till spring games, baby!